It sounds like renting anything from a private landlord in Quail Hill would be a really bad idea.

At this price… if this place rents for $2500 (maybe $2300?) and these people put 20% down they won’t be getting killed too bad.  At least payments would be fairly close to rent…. not totally obscene like days past…

It’s hard to imagine you would need to move into a condo like this right now…. and could not wait a year.
——-

“The last time that many were underwater, Noah built a boat.
“
IR - You crack me up.

Speaking of the garage door, I don’t know if it’s just the resolution of the picture or something, but it looks both crooked and dented.  If you’re going to sell a property featuring a garage door, at least show a decent picture of it?

Besides, why no interior shots of the gourmet kitchen (they didn’t say it was in the listing, but granite countertops?).  Wonder if the interior is trashed or something?

I wonder if there was any financing details on the current owner? Is it a short sale or reo?

Thanks for the pointer.  I wouldn’t mind living in Quail Hill, in 2011.

It is a bit further of a commute but it is on the freeway instead of arterials.

You should make this a new “underwater” icon for everyones schadenfreude.

It quite literally “on the freeways.” On the corner of the 133 and 405 to be exact. I can bet the noise must be deafening at rush hour.

How about this one:

Loud but constant noise is no longer a noise after a while. The buyer should celebrate for making a steal at the time being considering the following listing:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1290025

337 Tall Oak
Irvine, CA 92603
Price: $925,000
Beds:  2
Baths:  2.5
Sq. Ft.:  1,800
$/Sq. Ft.: $514

Reducing prices: (chasing a following market)
Nov 14, 2007 $1,059,000
Dec 01, 2007 $975,000
Jan 27, 2008 $925,000

After all, it is in a corner of Quail Paradise in Irvine.

Well, I am sure $621,000 purchase and holding it for three years is a lot of money.  I am sure mortgage was substantially higher then rent and to top it off, consider HOA, Property Taxes, etc. I think loss is substantial given the fact that the person carried it for three full years, ouch!

“If you’re going to sell a property featuring a garage door, at least show a decent picture of it?”

Holly Nguyen must be at it again…

snicker.

” I am sure mortgage was substantially higher then rent and to top it off, consider HOA, Property Taxes, etc. I think loss is substantial given the fact that the person carried it for three full years, ouch!”

Dont forget the bruised EGO.

HAR HAR HAR

Actually, during rush hour, the freeway is just like shopping mall parking, and the noise is pretty low.

I’ve been reading the IHB for a few weeks now, and I have really learned a lot about the state of the current housing/credit crunch.  That said, I’m still a noob, a noob with a question:

Does the fact that everyone is underwater really cause problems for the neighborhood?  How many people bought homes there thinking that they would be selling soon?  How many bought their homes thinking that it was a nice neighborhood, someplace they wanted to live until their kids were out of school at least, maybe forever? 

If you bought your home for the long term, it’s a little psychologically distressing to see it lose a lot of its paper value, but it doesn’t change your payments, and assuming you don’t lose your job or get transferred and have to sell, it doesn’t put you into financial distress.

Although the Tall Oak property is an Obscene WTF listing, it really can’t be compared to this condo. SFR should sell for a little more; Too bad not as much as the “Senior Exec. of the Homebuilder” would like.

On the subject of Quail Hill, my wife has expressed this neighborhood as one of the ones on her list when we buy our next home. My question is if either of these scenarios is more likely: 1) With home prices dropping and people stuck underwater in their properties, will it be more likely that most of our neighbors will be home owners rather than renters?
OR 2) With home prices dropping, will the homes for sale be bought up by investors with the intent of renting them out?

As per your shopping center comment, my view from Space Coast Florida:

Got a couple of ten dollar certificates from Macy’s Visa, ‘cause I charged my new dental crown on it.  Went to Macy’s hoping to find a pair of slacks with an elastic waistband which was not from China to net against the certificates.

Found NOTHING.  Very few people were shopping in the store, virtually all, say 905% were while ladies over 40.  Virtually none of the merchandise was aimed at these shoppers.  I doubt that the goods would be acceptable to the young and trendy either.  Really a bad mix.
And I fail to see how the store expects to make it to the next Christmas season with so few shoppers. 

Bought some virtually free underwear, and left irritated.

We went to walmart too, to get an electronic toy from Nntendo for the hub—only place that had them.  Lots and lots of shoppers there.  But that includes a grocery store too.

Macy’s used to be Burdines, a home grown dept store, and lots of people including me are bitter about the take over.  It helps to know that people need a different mix of clothing here than elsewhere.  Also, did it escape Macy’s attention that a lot of retired people move here, and they tend to be a tad older than average?

Seems like even the retailers are off track.

That’s 95%

Am I seeing an orange notice on the front door in the garage pick? Foreclosures in Quail Hill already?

I bet the traffic at rush hour is quite bearable.

Around 9pm the freeway moves at 80 or so, and THEN you can hear them.

My experience with Macys is that people wait for the sales.  Traffic will be slow on a weekday and non-sale weekends, I don’t see anything out of the ordinary based on one visit during a non-sale day.

My aunt lived in Homestead before Hugo (remember the one house that didn’t blow down?  That was hers!)  and I remember her bringing presents from Burdines.  She hated it after ‘81 or so because the Cubans were little and she couldn’t get anything that fit anymore (as a sizable white woman) because they’d changed the merchendise.

I’m sure Macy’s will get it figured out.

The Quail Hill shopping center and its restaurants do fairly well during lunch time.  I work on Sand Canyon and it’s always a problem finding parking there for lunch, if you get there too late.  The quality of the food served there is actually so-so, but better than another trip to Carl’s Jr.  They do have my favorite flower shop however.

I’ve never eaten there for dinner, so donno about how well they do at night.  They do have enough banks (Wells Fargo, Wamu, etc) and the Cox cable office to bring in additional foot traffic.

On the weekends, I go hiking at the Quail Hill trails.  It’s actually pretty nice after the rain, when everything is green.

Macy’s is one of my favorite stores to shop.  However, the quality of the merchandise varies by location.  I prefer Macy’s for men at South Coast, and Macy’s at Newport Fashion Island 2nd.  If you compare the shoe department between Macy’s at Cerritos Mall vs. South Coast, you’ll know what I mean.

It’s a “gourmet” garage door that has been intentially “distressed” to give that Special Designer Touch!.  ;^)

ROTFL! That’s perfect.

What scared me was going to the Home Depot on El Toro Sunday afternoon (yesterday) and it was EMPTY.  No waiting, associates standing around ready to help.  For the last few years going to HD on a Sunday afternoon meant a jammed store and a long wait in line.  Yesterday, we had the place to ourselves.  Recession, anyone?

Underwear and elastic pants !  TMI Liz ! 

I think I know what you are getting at 12xuser, but we all take financial stress differently and in many cases even if there are no technical reasons to be stressed we make up stuff.

There are as many assumptions on the other side as well, such as:

How many owners (money renters) took out ARM’s/optionARM’s/liar loans?
How many of the owners stretched their finances just to move into Q.H?
How many were wise and locked in their mortgage at a reasonable rate?
How many owners can ignore the constant talk about falling values, the empty houses and the bankruptcy bus driving through their neighbourhood?

I shop at the Macy’s Men store at South Coast as well and like their selection.
As Alan mentioned above, they have 15%-20% off sales frequently, at least once per month, which is typically when I go. Mainly purchase work attire there and prefer Nordstroms for jeans and casual attire. Bloomingdales has plenty of gorgeous women working their but it’s a little over the top. I could do without the trance/ techno music in some of their men’s departments and the faux runway shows they put on serve no real purpose, other than eye candy.

Interesting point, Mark. As a former Irvine resident, I still have a hard time accepting the fact that someone would pay $2500 to rent a 3/3 condo. Just a decade ago, you could rent a relatively large newer house for less than that.

It’s hard to believe how things went up as fast as they did. It’s even harder to predict how and when this mess will unfold.

I love it!

“Manual garage door with chrome stainless steel handle.  Great for exercise!!!!!

It’s sort of like the feeling I got when I snooped at my neighbors rent bill at my apartment complex.  I saw that they were paying about 100.00 a month less than I was for more or less the same apartment.  I thought to myself “Hey this is B.S!  I’m being screwed out of 100$ a month!”.

I’m guessing that reaction can’t be too far off from when you see the new neighbors move in; knowing that they paid 200K less for their house than you paid for yours.

Buying Quail Paradise by investors for renting purpose is still loooong way away, if ever.

Even for today’s steal price of $525k, the GRM is still a whopping 228 assuming monthly rent of $2300.

My dog poops in this yard.  There is no noise at all in Quail Hill, unless you are outside at 1 am on a cold night, then you can hear the freeway in the distance.

Home prices in the state of denial

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080207/020708_homeowners_views.html?.v=10&.pf=real-estate

Lets not underestimate the business from the wedding registry.  They get a lot of wedding business because there aren’t a lot of viable alternatives e.g. Target?  (I hear Home Depot has a wedding registry… dishwasher, washing machine, power tools), I wanted to register at Rodger Dunn but that didn’t go over well!!)

TMI?

This was on Sunday, and there were a lot of 40% off sales.

In Fla, and I guess Cali, where there are sooo many foreclosures, it’s not shameful to talk about any more and people are talking about it.  Of course, the average Joe and Juana are not necessarily going to connect more foreclosures with the value of their own house going down, until the house down the block gets empty and the bank never cuts the grass.

He’s asking for a more vivid description :D

There is no way that place rents out at $2300.  I think someone would likely pay $2600-2800 to rent it.  It’s a sub 200 GRM at list.  If the buyer picked it up at $500K flat, it would be around 185 GRM based on today’s rents.

It will be interesting to see the tug o’ war on rent prices.  You’ll have rental supply overhang from all the foreclosures and tighter credit, but likely higher inflation tending to push costs up. 

The markets sure seem to be betting more on inflation vs. a huge recession…

Qual Hill’s new motto:

“Why live in Newport by the water when you can be under it in Qual Hill?”

D’oh, I forgot an ‘i’ in quail.

Quail Hill is foreclosure central Fair.  There have been at least 7-8 places in QH that went back to the bank since the summer with a number of more in the pipeline…

I am so glad that these places have practically no lawn/yard so that over grown grass would never be a problem for the neighbors

In spring of 2007, there was one of these available for rent for $2,500.

Nice post, but you butchered Robert Hunter’s lyrics, and this will not stand, man:

Must be getting early
Clocks are running late
Paint by number morning sky
Looks so phony

Dawn is breaking everywhere
Light a candle, curse the glare
Draw the curtains
I don’t care ‘cause
It’s all right

I will get by / I will get by
I will get by / I will survive

I see you’ve got your list out
Say your piece and get out
Yes I get the gist of it
but it’s all right

Sorry that you feel that way
The only thing there is to say
Every silver lining’s got a
Touch of grey

I will get by / I will get by
I will get by / I will survive

It’s a lesson to me
The Ables and the Bakers and the C’s
The ABC’s we all must face
And try to keep a little grace

It’s a lesson to me
The deltas and the east and the freeze
The ABC’s we all think of
Try to give a little love.

I know the rent is in arrears
The dog has not been fed in years
It’s even worse than it appears
but it’s all right.

Cow is giving kerosene
Kid can’t read at seventeen
The words he knows are all obscene
but it’s all right

I will get by / I will get by
I will get by / I will survive

The shoe is on the hand it fits
There’s really nothing much to it
Whistle through your teeth and spit
‘cause it’s all right.

Oh well a Touch Of Grey
Kind of suits you anyway.
That was all I had to say
It’s all right.

I will get by / I will get by
I will get by / I will survive
We will get by / We will get by
We will get by / We will survive

I’m am so happy for your dog…....

Similar home in Aliso Viejo for 130K below 2004 price, 251$/sqft):

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1469788

45 Trofello LN
Aliso Viejo, CA 92656
Price: $399,000

Sales History
Aug 27, 1998 $179,500
Oct 28, 2004 $529,000

Beds:  3
Baths:  3
Sq. Ft.:  1,592
$/Sq. Ft.: $251
Lot Size:  - 
Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1999
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Aliso Viejo
County: Orange
MLS#: S521233
Status: Active
On Redfin: 1 day

That seems like a very good deal considering what people pay to live in IAC apartments…  1200sf 2/2 apartments at Quail Ridge and Quail Meadow rent for $2200-2300.  Getting 600 extra sf seems like a fabulous bargin for only $200 more.

Quail Hill Trail:
http://www.irvineranchlandreserve.org/images/QuailHillGuiderev9.pdf

I actually don’t mind not having much of a yard, because I hate mowing the grass.  Or if the HOA takes care of it, that’s fine with me too.  I enjoy having a HOA take care of everything in the exterior for condos.

If you really want to see a lot of grass, you can take the 2 mile hike around Quail Hill trail behind the fire station.  They have a lot of nice trails, parks, and open space for that community, but it’s kinda of off to the side and not in the middle (of the community).

I also worry about fire hazards, but fortunately I don’t live too close to it.  Close enough to walk to, but not too close in case of fire.

That Aliso Viejo condo looks nice, but I don’t see a lot of guest parking from the street photo?  If it had a full drive way, I wouldn’t worry about it.  But it doesn’t.

The IAC apartments are overpriced relative to what is available from private landlords. Of course, they come with on-site amenities and responsive maintenance service, so there is some justification for the higher rates. Plus, IAC grinds on rents every year to capture the highest possible revenue; although, right now they are having some vacancy issues which are slowing the rate of rental increase.

IR -

What do you think the impacts to housing prices will be with all of the “interventions” underway by both the government and private industry?  Will all of the Rate freezes and foreclosure freezes etc. put a floor into the downward sprial we are witnessing?  Or, will it create a Japan-like RE market here with prices drifting slowly down over 10+ year period to find fundamental support?  I’m curious about your thoughts and the group’s thoughts on this matter.  I’m positive things will find fundamental support based on real incomes and debt ratios but, these efforts could take a 5 year problem and turn it into a 10 or 20 year problem. 

BD

It’s a Condo so the GRM should be closer to 130 than 200. I think we will still see another 20% off in this market.

1/2 mil for a condo in the middle of a bunch of other condo’s that look the same that are next to a busy freeway….think about it. Think about the income and down payment required.

Hey Realtard….use the F’ing spell check!!  OMG this is more than I can take.

When I was in college, one of the best finance professors I had was a stickler when it came to spelling.  It was a class where we had to do pretty extensive research papers and presentations on companies.  He made it very clear that the worst thing you could do when presenting anything that will be read by colleagues or clients is not proofread.

I almost want to call the agent, schedule a visit, and present he/she with this listing.  I would say, “I refuse to purchase anything from such an incompetent, lazy individual.  Learn how to read and write.”

Troop is a she.

The dude abides.

I would like to comment on the down payment requirement.  After contacting several lenders over the past few weeks, it is apparent that 5% down is sufficient.  The lenders do demand an extra 10% for those areas that have demonstrated “falling values”, however this limitation seems to be largely irrelevant for lending in Irvine (Talega and Ladera were both mentioned).

If you doubt it, try calling a few lenders and getting pre-qualified…

Uh-oh, I found a house I like…  I think I can get it for $50-75K below current market pricing.  Economics work out such that we’ll should be able to keep our pre-tax spend monthly spend to under $4K.  Will mean we are spending roughly $900 per month after the additional tax benefit to acquire 1000 more sf, two more bedrooms, and an extra bathroom.  Mrs. IPO wants to put an offer in and I think I might actually agree with her this time…

Finally, the Dead Return to Irvine…. I hope the cops don’t come in busting the site.

And yes, the expectation should be that ALL homes built in Irvine after 04 will be underwater price wise.  If you think about that… all of those homes in TRidge sitting at 300 feet above sea level will be underwater…

Of course, this doesn’t mean that all mortages will be underwater, but the home prices will.

As I noted many times earlier, new homes were overpriced since ‘02.  By ‘04 they were hopelessly on Mars.

Check this one

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1207210

It’s a custom home in Shady Canyon.  &b/11ba.  From the taxes you can see that it’s valued at just under 3MIL.  The building is worth about 1MIL.

But they want 9MIL for their own Persian Palace.

QHill looks bad, a lot of SFHs with empty interiors and WTF prices still above their selling price in 04 and 05.

And atomic bomb waiting to happen.

But, Shady Canyon looks like a MIRV’d assemblage of thermonuclear weapons.

I’ve got some bad news for everyone. The last time I drove by this place the water feature was turned off. :-(

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1397186

TMI = too much information

It was just a few months ago when ipop would have posited that a similar stucco box would rent for at least 2900.  now he is down to 2600.  I say he is still bubbly but is getting there.

good catch, I have passed by this one few times, this is across a supermarket where I shop often.
the water thing looks ridiculous to us. the owner must have run out of idea on how to fool a knife catcher

I am a longtime lurker moved to post for the first time: don’t do it, ipoplaya! I feel like I’m watching a horror movie in which the hot chick decides to go check out what made that noise in the old abandoned house. just walk away! can’t you sit your wife down to read the IHB archives for a couple of days? it’s true that moving is a big hassle and many people (like my husband) particularly detest it. nonetheless, if you offered her $100,000 to move twice in three years surely she would take it, right? that’s just what you’ll be offering her if you rent for a few more years. in my moderately well-formed opinion.

Ipo, I dont know how much the place you like is worth but offering 60-70k only, man have some ba**s, how about 100-150K   :mrgreen:

for 4k per month, I sure hope it is at least 3000 sf with a view.  8)

Damn, you’re right.  That house looks like it was designed by the Iranian HGTV design team

Thanks for the post belle.  We’re unfortunately not renters.  We are already losing big in this decline, so we are only trading one decling asset for another.  Peak pricing for my place was $735K or so, now it’s $550-575K at current market.  Peak price for the house we are thinking of offering on was probably around $1.1M or a little short of that. 

If everything falls at equivalent percentages, say 25% more, my house will be worth perhaps $430K at bottom while this place would go to $675K.  That price spread at the bottom, approximately $245K is just a little less than the price spread today, assuming I can get the deal I think can, of around $275K.

See my quandry here?  I could wait perhaps another 2-3 years, and mostly only be better off by the lower property tax base…  The $30K less in mortgage I might have at bottom would make me around $100 per month richer after taxes.  That assumes interest rates stay where they are today.  If they go up, the advantage is wiped out, at least temporarily, until rates return again to levels they are today. 

I want to wait, but already being an owner, the advantages of waiting are considerably muted.

LOL mmg.  My after-tax spend will be more like $3100 per month, which is only $400-600 more than people pay to rent the condo in today’s post.  Heck, that’s only a grand more than some people on this board pay to rent their IAC apartments…

I toured that one.  It’s really nice.  Way over the top - the roof tiles, doors, etc. are all imported antiques (from Morocco?).

Speaking of malls… went to the mall at Culver & Deerfield today, saw a flatbed truck with a newer tan VW beetle on it.  Truck was going fast, didn’t stop at the stop sign, went plowing past me out of the mall.  Repro?

I think the only thing understated about this bubble has been the true affect on the economy… we are in a horrible recession and fed is trying to sugar coat it. As always the fed will over react until they send the pendulim back and the cycle will change once again to the other extreme. 

On the bright side, I did find a new site that I like http://www.beekast.com pretty cool video tours on rentals and for sales.

ipo:

It can work well and make sense in your case providing all assumption remain intact for the long period of time in your analysis.

Not all knife catchers are equal.

Indeed George.  If this moves forward, I’ll change my handle to Dull Butter Knife Catcher.

I’d think whether your family outgrows your current place would have greater weight than any rational financial analysis.

“I don’t even have room to turn around, Ipo Jr’s toys are underfoot everywhere! We have no place to put them!” ... That’s your two month warning to find a new place—or for you to find a new place.

That’s nice. I said in another thread about the same neighborhood about how I liked hiking in the hills, and this neighborhood looked like it ruined the hills by replacing it with depressing garage-fronted warehouses. At least they’re keeping some nature unspoiled.

And speaking of nature hazards, try reading John McPhee’s “Control of Nature”.  The last part of the book is about the fire and mudslide dynamics of the Southern California coast. As a former resident of So Cal, I was surprised at how little I really knew about the hazards. And that was the point of the author.

I drove my Bro-In-Law past this house because it was Sunday and Chick-Fil-A at Tustin Marketplace was closed. (j/k) At night, the lights were gleaming and the water feature was flowing.

Ipo. Good luck. I’m interested to see how it goes. My family should be upgrading by the end of the year and from your posts, our housing parameter requirements are similar

My guess is you’re so accustomed to the noise you don’t realize it’s there.

oh, that does make a difference; I obviously haven’t been paying enough attention to the ipo saga! then I hope you get a decent price on your house and find someplace good. I live in Singapore and may be moving to LA in summer 2009, so I am following all this with vulture-like interest.

There has only been talk of rate freezes and foreclosure freezes.  There are no actual rate freezes or foreclosure freezes.

“..saw a flatbed truck with a newer tan VW beetle on it. Truck was going fast, ...”

I just saw one yesterday with a Lamborghini on the back of it, and I was thinking the SAME THING ! (Repo anyone?)

I live here too. You dont hear the freeway at all inside. You need to be out very early for a walk to pick it up in the background noise outside. You can hear the train when it blows its horn at Sand Canyon up at the 5 Frwy.

Back to the topic. Yes all those homes along Quail Ridge Parkway
are underwater. The are all so small and have ZERO yards. So sad.
And I think we have another 20-30% before we hit the bottom.
These homes wont be back rightside up for a decade. That is unless
inflation makes it happen from a dollar standpoint.

Thanks Cal.

When all is said and done, I would like to ask the engineers of this scheme, “Was it really worth it?”  Of course, to them it was…they got huge paychecks for these deals.  The money on Wall Street flowed like lava out of a volcano, but in a broader sense I wonder what the cost to our economy will be.

We have got to stop engineering these boom/bust cycles.

To quote Allen Iverson in relation to ‘practice, you talking about practice,
practice?’ I would say ‘Ambridge, you talking about Ambridge, Ambridge’. It’s obvious that Irvine Renter doesn’t live in Quail Hill because Ambridge is definately not a reflection of this community. it was one of the last tracts built and sold (sage East and Vicara were the other two) and it’s lodged right up against the 405. There are plenty of tracts within Quail Hill where homeowners who bought at the beginning are not just even, but actually sitting on equity and would still be sitting on equity with another 20% decrease. The homewoners that are upside down are the ones who bought re-sale properties within the last two years and/or Vicara and Ambridge. Being the lowest priced community in the 92603 zip code (Shady Canyon and Turtle Ridge) and Laguna Crossing and Irvine Spectrum within 1/4 mile this will be the village that survives the crash.