Replying to:

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 12:53 PM

Totally agree with Straight Digs; that’s my point.

Additionally there are people here who feel entitled to properties which they will never be able to afford.

These people will continue to think prices will fall even at the actual bottom; even though a property they can afford exist.

Posted by AZDavidPhx on 12/17/07 at 04:51 AM

What was this seller’s original down payment?  Does this seller earn 331,248?  Wow, talk about pillaging the village coffers on this one.  I don’t think that people like this should be allowed to escape debtors prison in 7 years.  An extended sentence (maybe 15 years) is probably applicable here in cases like this where the offense is this egregious.

The house certainly does not look like it should be worth more than 400K.

Looks pretty cramped in all of the pictures.  The kitchen looks about the same size as the kitchen in my apartment.  Is all of the square footage in the wine cellar?

The view is nothing special.

The house sits very close to the street almost in McMansion style.  No diamond studded driveway fence?

The house looks like every other house on the block.

You can shake hands with your neighbor through the bedroom window.

Enough turn-offs for me to wonder WTF these people were thinking.

Does have a “granite kitchen” though.  I know that is worth a half million dollars these days.
——-

Posted by lee in irvine on 12/17/07 at 04:57 AM

The seller simply has ZERO chance.

The seller should just stop making the payments, and wait for the bank to force her out.  Take the hit, then start over.  The longer she waits for the inevitable, the longer she’ll wait for the recovery.

Posted by Fester Addams on 12/17/07 at 05:04 AM

Yikes!  A stove with facial hair!

Posted by FairEconomist on 12/17/07 at 05:16 AM

3000 square feet is pretty big. Those pictures look like a small townhome! Maybe they only took pictures of parts of the house they don’t use because the rest is too much of a mess? And did you catch that they have not one, but *two* copies of the Quail Hill sign in the gallery?

Posted by Larrygg on 12/17/07 at 05:22 AM

Check out the range hood. It looks like the same one I had in my crummy apartment I was renting a while back. $1.3 Mil huh? Good luck.

Posted by AZDavidPhx on 12/17/07 at 05:23 AM

Yes, Quail Hill must mean a lot to someone in the know. 

Personally, “Quail Hill” sounds a little Sesame Streetish to me, but oh well.

Are you also trying to tell me that for a million dollars, I don’t get my own room of treadmills?  I have to use the community gym?

240.00 HOA fees.  Nice.  Where do I sign up?

Posted by Diana K on 12/17/07 at 05:28 AM

“Buyer take over existing loans”

Holy cow! Who do they think would actually agree to this? Even a knife-catcher would have to know better by now.

Posted by former_irvine_resident on 12/17/07 at 05:29 AM

I’m not sure I would want to live in a subdivision with a herd of miniature riding cows.  WTF is that picture doing on the listing?

Posted by Diana K on 12/17/07 at 05:31 AM

IR,

In the graph, it looks like it’s differentiating from refinancing any previous loans & any 2nds or 3rds.

Am I looking at that right?

Why would they separate when it amounts to the same thing?

Unless the cash-out refi side includes the original note?

Posted by AZDavidPhx on 12/17/07 at 05:31 AM

How about the kitchen table?  You could probably fit a couple of Hungry Man frozen dinners and maybe a fork or two.

Posted by Diana K on 12/17/07 at 05:33 AM

but it’s a 5 bedroom 3.5 bath. That takes up a lot of sq ft unless your bedrooms are tiny.

Posted by AZDavidPhx on 12/17/07 at 05:35 AM

The local park that is probably never used as anyone with a family to feed can’t afford this.

Most likely is used by the locals to walk their dogs.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 05:37 AM

The asking price is one thing; those don’t make me laugh anymore.

I always laugh at the taking over payment option.

You can’t really have a bigger act of desperation.

Perhaps it’s the best way to find the greater fool.

Key assumption made:  someone with bad credit but a good income might bail the seller out.

When you provide this take over payment option it is an admittance to the fact that the house is not worth the asking price.

I think listings that have this option mentioned are not actually looking to sell the home.  They know that bankruptcy is immenient.  There is no way they will sell the home at a price the bank could agree on.  The only option is to find the guy with bad credit and a good income who really REALLY want’s a house…. good luck.

Posted by IrvineRenter on 12/17/07 at 05:40 AM

I don’t know exactly how they calculate MEW. Their methodology is consistent year to year, so the trend was toward rampant equity extraction as prices rose.

Posted by George8 on 12/17/07 at 06:44 AM

Disaster awaits this one. Carrying costs: tax $13180, HOA $240/month and mello $275/month. Just these three is $19,360 a year.

Posted by GavriloPrincip on 12/17/07 at 06:50 AM

I wonder if this posting will draw another nastygram from listing agent and owner Greg Oranges.  If you recall, he got very irate back in August over IR’s post “Stepping Down” featuring another of his listings.

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/08/02/stepping-down/

This was the first of his many delightful comments on that thread:

“Comment by Greg Oranges, Quail Hill Community Assn., President
2007-08-02 14:33:36

You want the TRUTH on real estate - contact a Realtor! - I saw 112 Stepping Stone yesterday and it is not bad - it is a short sale - good luck - Nothing compared to this one>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>You want a great property in Quail Hill - call me for a private showing of 91 Stepping Stone - it is deluxe! Best location and upgrades of any Casalon on the market. Buy a house and get a life!

Greg Oranges
First Team Real Estate”

Posted by ice weasel on 12/17/07 at 06:50 AM

You see this is where I, however slightly, start to grin whenever someone talks about the insanity in pricing of Irvine.  Back in the day Irvine was the flatlands crotch between the 405 and the 5.  Now it’s moved “into the hills”.  Apparently this luxury home is perched on a hill high enough to allow her to see her neighbors’ tile roofing.  Wow.

And the pictures are terrible.  The whole place looks small, cramped and cheap (nice vanity lights).

If this is a million dollar home in Irvine then cheers to those willing to sink their money into it.  Once again we see the absolutely deluded nature of this market.  How many people making 300 plus large a year have a quarter of a million cash to put down on this thing?  And even if there was a huge pool of people willing to do it, why?

Oh, and nice backyard.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 06:52 AM

disaster? you think anyone is paying these?  the owner definitely isn’t

these people made out like bandits

Posted by GavriloPrincip on 12/17/07 at 06:53 AM

Now, I visited 139 Treehouse in the summer (when it was for sale for a lower price), and Adrienne Oranges told me that they owned it, and it had been their personal residence until they moved to another part of Irvine.  Can someone with access to public records confirm this?

This could get interesting.

Posted by ice weasel on 12/17/07 at 06:56 AM

One of the bitter victims crying out for help.  After all, misery does love company, right?

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 07:06 AM

This house is clearly over valued; but I would caution you to think that there are not wealthy people in OC who can afford this home and who would not buy it around $900K.

This is like the conservative person who can’t believe how someone can afford a $20K wedding dress or a $200K car.

These people exist… whether or not you can imagine it or not.  I don’t think a conservative person will ever be able to “afford” a home like this in the OC:  3,000 sq. ft., 5 bed / 4 bath, view, etc. 

A home like this is for an entrepreneur.  There are plenty of these in the OC.  Some are wildly successful with huge cash flows.  Others fail…. but for everyone one that fails a new one comes into to take there place at the table.

A home like this is not for the conservative corporate type.

Posted by Mr Vincent on 12/17/07 at 07:12 AM

Another detached condo. No lot at all, and of course, they dont list the lot size. If you want to play catch with little Johnny, you have to drag him to the assoc park.

The neighbors house is so close that any noise is amplified. I would not buy this place for this reason alone. I mean look at the first pic of the front. The windows of the neigbors are a handshake away.


Only good thing is that no-one is directly behind.

Posted by John on 12/17/07 at 07:17 AM

Yep. Not even a 5 burner cooktop in a granite kitchen would make me want to take over those loans. Good grief.

Posted by Slugster on 12/17/07 at 07:21 AM

Is these “take over” deals common for SoCal?
.......
I am watching the SoCal/Arizona circus from a St Louis-area town, 50K pop.

Last spring I began to see a few signs for houses around, said things like “$3K and take over payments”, or $4K,,, or $5K,,,,

This area is NOT a high-end or bubble area,  yet these people are so stuck they can’t even pay the transaction cost, even with a willing buyer. Or maybe they need the cash to get into an apartment—whatever… but I am 38 years old, lived here most of my life and haven’t ever seen this before.

These deals might have been out there before, but they didn’t put it on a sign and stick it in the front yard.
~

Posted by Kim on 12/17/07 at 07:33 AM

112 Stepping Stone was listed for $629,900 in August when it was featured on IHB. The original list price in July was $639,900.

Some here have asked for updates on properties featured in the past…the current listing price is $538,000.

Posted by SacRenter on 12/17/07 at 07:35 AM

Those pictures are horrible.  ITA with everyone who says they make it appear to be cramped.

Posted by ipoplaya on 12/17/07 at 07:42 AM

First installment of this year’s taxes was paid on time, 12/7/07, in the amount of $6734: 

Parcel No. 481-111-11      
View Original Bill   (See Bill Disclaimer) 
Legal Description N TR 16304 BLK LOT 88 U
Tax Rate Area 26-073
Roll Type Secured
This bill was generated on 10/01/2007 (also known as the enrollment date).* 
Installments Delinquent Date Status Amount Due Remarks
  First Installment 12/10/2007 PAID $0.00  
Second Installment 04/10/2008 NOT PAID $6,734.38 Until 04/10/2008

Posted by zoiks on 12/17/07 at 07:59 AM

Not that a blog like this needs another doomsayer, but I don’t think most people realize how screwed the local homeowners are.

Think about how much you make. Probably the visitors on this site are reasonably high income. Now think, with all that money you make, what a struggle it is to save money - for retirement, for investments, for a nest egg. With the cost of living these days, saving money is an epic feat. Look at the money left over every month after taxes (Fed + state), rent, IRA contributions, cable, gas, electric, gasoline, food, clothing, medical, daycare, dental, furniture, phone, internet service, DMV and car taxes, smog checks, car maintenance. Then throw in a little bit for fun, like movies, vacations, eating out, maybe (god forbid!) a boat or RV. There just ain’t much left! Renting helps, of course, but still it’s a struggle.

My household makes great income, but the costs do make it a struggle to keep saving. But save, we do. We are very conservative about spending, and find deals on everything we get.

Now remember that most of these FBs and serial refinancers have little control over their spending habits. As this example shows, they are paying huge sums every month to finance their American Nightmare lifestyle. For what? For the same stuff that we renters get, but for half the price. And we can save the rest, assuming we can control our own spending habits.

Money is flowing very rapidly away from OC households. The house ATM has an “out of order” note taped to it. Rest assured there are a great many people in OC, SoCal, California whose costs are well beyond their means. Most of those are “homeowners” who are going to go down one of two paths: compelled separation of their homes by either sale or foreclosure, or they are going to be making very big payments on these homes for longer than they would want to know. There are no two ways about it.

Posted by awgee on 12/17/07 at 08:11 AM

You mean no one bought it and got a life?

Posted by buster on 12/17/07 at 08:13 AM

Yes there are SOME people in OC who could afford this home.  Not plenty, but some.  And they already own or rent houses in Laguna or Newport. 

What about the “new entrepreneurs” and their hoards of cash?  Well, they want to show off their BLING with a capital “B.”  And Irvine tract homes just don’t seem to have much “Bling” appeal.  Yeah, the smokin’ hot supermodels will be just streaming in to party at this crib…if they can squeeze past the neighbors’ minivans and giant inflatable snow globes from Lowes.

Posted by buster on 12/17/07 at 08:17 AM

I’m in!  I’ll take over payments (on the FIRST only) at 80% of the original loan amount.  The banks can eat the negative amort and the HELOC, but they should be used to it by now.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 08:19 AM

funny post buster, so you really think this home will go for less than $900K?

Posted by Priced_Out_IT_Guy on 12/17/07 at 08:19 AM

Perhaps they’re just organic vegans and blend all of their food and pour it into a glass. No forks required.

You’re certainly not going to do any real cooking with that white apartment hood unless you want to stink up the entire house and enjoy repainting the ceiling every 3 months.

Posted by Priced_Out_IT_Guy on 12/17/07 at 08:26 AM

...because successful entrepreneurs totally want to live in mediocre overpriced track homes.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 08:27 AM

so they paid $6734 out of their $500K HELOC… they still made out like bandits

do you think the owners might have a few more just like this?

Posted by JimmyJohnson on 12/17/07 at 08:31 AM

“Buy a house and get a life!

Greg Oranges
First Team Real Estateā€


HAHAHAHAHAHA ROFL !!!!!!!!!!!!

Gawd, these phoney Realturds just DONT GET IT, do they?


Hey Greg, try getting on your knees instead, you’ll get better results….


snicker.

Posted by Virus! on 12/17/07 at 08:36 AM

The realplay plugin for this video contains a virus.  Beware…. run a virus scan!!

Posted by Purplehaze on 12/17/07 at 08:38 AM

Greg and other realtors:

Potential home buyers do not owe you or the OC economy a dime. We have worked hard for our money and I definitely know how I have earned my dollars pay check by pay check without living off someone else’s dime and prentending to be rich like the rest of OC. I tell you everytime I meet a homeowner who bought in the bubble years especially first time buyers I am grinning ear to ear. I am so glad that I did not participate in the mad herd mentality dash for real estate.

All that the realtors are proving by their actions is that they are a bunch of liars and will stoop down to any level to sell a home - even if it means lying to a potential buyer against unsurmountable evidence of an impending housing crash in the coming years.

Posted by NanoWest on 12/17/07 at 08:51 AM

..............in about 4 years a million dollar home will be near the beach in Newport. That will force the value of these types of places down to about $600K.

Posted by NanoWest on 12/17/07 at 08:54 AM

I might take over the payments if the Realtor professionals that are selling it will work for me for the rest of their lives as servants. They would need to clean, cook, wash, grocery shop, and all of the other chores that they are qualified to do.

Posted by jwbrown77 on 12/17/07 at 08:57 AM

Oh man, that gourmet kitchen graphic really makes me chuckle.  Kudos.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 08:58 AM

Nanowest,

Using gross rent multipliers at $600K would put equivalent rent at:

190 GRM = $3150
160 GRM = $3750

you could be right, but that sounds way too low to me for a 5 BR / 4 BA, 3000 sq. ft. home in quail hill…. granted the pictures make it look like a 2 bed / 2 bath condo, I’m taking the bed/bath/sq.ft. data at face value.

Posted by mark on 12/17/07 at 09:06 AM

But I don’t get it.  You can’t just “take over” some else’s loan.  Every mortgage note has a “due on sale” clause that calls the note should a sale occur.  I guess a lender could agree to a take over?  Really, it might just be the lender’s best option…

Posted by Alan on 12/17/07 at 09:16 AM

I’m with buster,

you can ask $3,700/ month but in reality, finding tennants willing to pay this is harder than you think, you place will sit vacant for a long time with neg cash flow.

If I was going to rent for $3700/month I’d be in Newport too.

IT IS A TRACT HOME..

$600-650 K at bottom.

Posted by Trooper on 12/17/07 at 09:24 AM

We accept your offer.  Call us a.s.a.p.  - The Bank

Posted by mark on 12/17/07 at 09:27 AM

zoiks,

I would bet that the commenters on this blog are all highly educated.  I would even bet that a third have graduate degrees.  That would also place the vast majority of IHB commenters above the Irvine median income of $85K.  They also share the common belief that there are many goals in life that cannot be achieved if too much of that income is devoted to housing.

I share your disbelief in how people can make these decisions.  But I think we should acknowledge that we are in the minority.  We are outnumbered.  There are far more people/Americans who live paycheck-to-paycheck with no eye toward their financial future, than there are people investing 20%+ of their incomes and refusing to spend more than 25% of their incomes on housing.

These people keep the economy humming along, but aided by illogical lending have also inflated housing.  I try to just be grateful for the good these people do for my investment returns.

Posted by Trooper on 12/17/07 at 09:28 AM

We accept.  Please call our office with instructions.  - The Oranges

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 09:32 AM

I agree, but given the way developers developed land here…. the only option is to move out of the OC if you want to play catch little johnny for under $1M.

Posted by Pete on 12/17/07 at 09:32 AM

Another “home” that looks inhabited. No one ever lived there, probably.

So many houses, condos, dwellings, etc.. built on speculation and never lived in. Waste of materials, waste of energy, waste waste waste .... McPOS, mega this, ultra luxuous that ...  blah blah blahhh

Meanwhile, even the middle class keeps struggling to find/keep a decent place to live and raise a family. Capitalism is truly working well, and we are #1   .. not

Posted by MMG on 12/17/07 at 09:35 AM

600k when all is said and done.  :mrgreen:

if we do go back to regular lending standards, people with that kind of income and downpayment will be very picky on what they buy. with realestate losing value, it does not make sense to just buy any McPOS in Irvive. some homes will command a higher value depending on design, location, etc. but this one——-GOOD LUCK.

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 09:38 AM

would you buy it for 900K if you could?

In 3 yrs, I could. & I wouldn’t

Posted by AJ on 12/17/07 at 09:38 AM

“$275 Mello” - I live by this house….mello is WAY higher!

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 09:39 AM

exactly.

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 09:41 AM

people in irvine spend outside time at the mall, they don’t spend it in the backyard. that’s why no one here really cares too much about how big it is.

Posted by AZDavidPhx on 12/17/07 at 09:42 AM

Good point.  If you work 3 jobs to pay for this house, you probably don’t have much time for cooking.

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 09:42 AM

now, yes, but not 3 years from now.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 09:45 AM

I can do it now with 20% down.

I would consider if it had a Mission Viejo sized yard and the pictures did not make it look like a 2 bed / 2 bath condo.

I’ve noticed some Irvine people don’t like yards due to maintenance; strange aliens who live here.

Posted by GavriloPrincip on 12/17/07 at 09:47 AM

Actually, the DID try to rent it.  Starting in the summer, it was put up for rent for around $5,000, IIRC, while it was also for sale.  No takers.  Then, they progressively chased the market down.  IIRC, the asking rent came down to about $4300, with no takers.  Also, 149 Treehouse, the same size plan, also with no backyard, has been for rent since at least July, and dropped even lower than $4300.  Still no takers.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 09:47 AM

good data, thank you

Posted by MadMax on 12/17/07 at 10:17 AM

Hehehe.  At first, I didn’t understand that “Oranges” part.  I thought you were referring to Orange County or a Mozillo-wannabe.

Anyway, I used to live in Albuquerque, NM.  Perhaps there’s a Mr. Albuquerques RealTurd there, too…

Posted by Laura Louzader on 12/17/07 at 10:22 AM

Today’s featured house and some of the great comments triggered many thoughts.

Today’s is truly a WTF.

First of all, why would anybody at all want to take over an outlandishly oversized trickbag mortgage that should never have been written for anyone, for a house that is at least $400K overpriced?

Why on earth would anybody, anywhere, but especially at this moment, assume a suicide mortgage? What reason would they have to do that? 

I mean, I feel like I’m asked to pay a premium for some other woman’s ripped, dirty designer dress and thank her for it. And then I get the charge bill for the dress she didn’t pay after she bought it. Swell deal.

This house is, judgeing from what I’m hearing and seeing of your local prices, worth about $750K in this market. It’s a pretty house and I rather like it, but it is not worth $1.3 MM, and for that figure I would want more.

As for there being wealthy people who wouldn’t mind paying $1.3 million for a house-well, yeah, sure there are. There are people who wouldn’t mind paying $13 Million, or even $130 million, for a house.

I just don’t believe they would pay $1.3 million for this one, and I also believe that wealthy people are probably less likely than anyone else to overpay for what they can see is a wasting assett. Only middle-class and lower-class boobies trying to act rich do that. Most people in any bracket want the most they can get for their money, and in a normal market people are very value-conscious when it comes to buying a dwelling, whether it’s a one-bed vintage on Sheridan Road or a Malibu palace. And people who have accumulated wealth tend to be a bit more skilled than the rest of us at getting the very best deal possible for the money- ask my designer friend what it’s like making clothes for this crowd.

Posted by John Albuquerques on 12/17/07 at 10:22 AM

How dare you call me a RealTurd?!  The homes that I sell next golf courses are the best here in Albuquerque.

Posted by ipoplaya on 12/17/07 at 10:28 AM

You might want to talk to the assessor’s office then AJ, Mello Roos are actually less than $275 per month on this property.  Outside of the basic tax load ($10,205), everything else including Mello Roos, various bonds, IUSD assessment, etc. totals up to around $272 per month.

Property tax data is public info people…  It’s not that hard to check before you post non-sense:

http://tax.ocgov.com/tcweb/search_page.asp

Parcel No.: 481-111-11
A1 BASIC LEVY RATE 1.00000 $1,020,539.00 $10,205.38
A1 METRO WATER D-MWDOC 0.00450 $1,020,539.00 $45.92
A4 IRWD #206 SEWER BOND 0.02330 $690,832.00 $160.96
A4 IRWD #106 WATER BOND 0.01648 $690,832.00 $113.85
A4 IRWD ID #161 BOND 0.00001 $690,832.00 $0.07
A4 IRWD #261 WATER BOND 0.00001 $690,832.00 $0.07
*** SPECIAL ASSESSMENT USER FEES***
BA MOSQ,FIRE ANT ASSMT (800)273-5167   $5.14
B3 VECTOR CONTROL CHG (800)273-5167   $1.92
C7 MWD WATER STDBY CHG (866)807-6864   $10.08
E0 IRVINE USD-ASMT (949)250-8300   $52.11
ME 1915 AD BOND ME (866)807-6864   $1,721.84
N1 LNDSCP & LTG #1 (866)807-6864   $43.96
R3 MELLO-ROOS R3 (800)858-8233   $1,107.46
Total Tax:  $13,468.76

Posted by ipoplaya on 12/17/07 at 10:40 AM

And they are trying to rent it now still:

http://orangecounty.craigslist.org/apa/472264237.html

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 10:44 AM

190 GRM = $4000 = 760,000
160 GRM = $4000 = 640,000


but you would pay 900,000 for this?

Posted by lendingmaestro on 12/17/07 at 10:46 AM

NINE hundred thousand!

nine HUNDRED thousand!

nine hundred THOUSAND!

That’s more money than I have amassed in my entire lifetime.  And all i get is a building?  No cure for cancer, no elixir of life, no free retirement?  Just a cheaply built stucco box on a tiny lot.

stupid.

Posted by lendingmaestro on 12/17/07 at 10:53 AM

Who cares about Mello Roos, the godforsaken taxes are over a grand a month!  Doesn’t that make you want to pass out?  All the renters who live in Quail Hill, who’s children go to school for free, thank you from the bottom of their hearts.

Posted by oc on 12/17/07 at 11:06 AM

I’m just guessing here but I’m sure rent in Quail Hill is high.  A portion of that may not be called mello roos but trust me, the renters are still paying for it.  Nothing is free.

Posted by Major Schadenfreude on 12/17/07 at 11:20 AM

Be careful:  If you use the “B-team”, you get “B-team” results!

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 11:22 AM

Buyer in 2010,

Try adding 20% on the 190 GRM, to your make believe $4000 rent.

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 11:25 AM

the sellers couldn’t get anyone to bite @ 4300, you really think they can get someone to rent it for $4800?

how is that possible?

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 11:30 AM

what percentage of properties in Irvine allow you to have catch with Johnny in the back yard?  It’s not a question of what you want; it’s a question of supply.  If having catch with Johny in your backyard is important the best advice is to move out of Irvine.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 11:33 AM

I know, it’s also impossible for a sports car to sit on the lot for 6 months and eventuall get sold for $200K.

Blogging with you all makes me feel like a bull.

Posted by frebay on 12/17/07 at 11:44 AM

This house is staged, I wonder how long it has been vacant…

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 11:49 AM

since they initially tried to rent it for $5000 & you think it should rent for $4800, you really do have a lot more in common with the seller/agents viewpoint than anyone here.

maybe you really are a bull.

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 11:51 AM

I doubt it was ever lived in.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 11:55 AM

Buyer,

I’m just trying to be logical.

The $600K valuation people are claiming is supposed to be 3 - 4 years from now.

Maybe you think rent is going down in 3 - 4 years.

I think that’s a bad assumption.

Posted by tealeaf on 12/17/07 at 11:57 AM

Meanwhile, even the middle class keeps struggling to find/keep a decent place to live and raise a family. Capitalism is truly working well, and we are #1 .. not

And the middle class is doing better in which part of the world?

Capitalism isn’t perfect, but in time, will even out.  The middle class can swoop on any home they want… in the IE.  In a couple of years, we will be able to do the same in OC.  Read this morning’s WSJ for more desparation in the B-E-A-utiful area of inland Corona.

Posted by Alan on 12/17/07 at 12:06 PM

Exactly my point, asking rent (a wish number) and what renters actually will pay you for your house are two different animals.  The rental value is the latter, not the former.  If the actual rental value is $2,800/month (what they could get if they really wanted a tennant and the multiplier is 150 x rent for purchase value then this house should be $420K.  In a rational market, that is.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 12:16 PM

Irvine Renter,

Can you start doing a monthly “Bear Sentiment” poll?

the question would be:

“Do you think house prices are over priced in Orange County?”
*** or something like that ***

My expectation is that the current state of bear sentiment (me included) would yield: 100% of bears responding: “YES, they are over priced !!!”

My expectation is that when we hit the actual bottom in 2, 3, 4, or 5 years…... 50% of the bears will still think home prices are too expensive.

Maybe it won’t be 50%, maybe it will only be 30% at the actual bottom, but I’m fairly positive many bears here will still think homes are over priced at the actuall bottom.

Speculation is a funny thing, on both upswings and downswings.

Posted by IrvineRenter on 12/17/07 at 12:22 PM

I don’t know. I suspect when we are nearing the bottom, most of the people on this board will become bullish because they understand the economics better than most. This board is populated by people who are bearish because the fundamentals of the market support it. When this board turns bullish, the masses will be very bearish because so many will have lost so much. The masses only look at changes in price with little or no understanding of fundamental value.

Posted by Mark in Pa on 12/17/07 at 12:22 PM

For a million plus I’d at least want some real estate, land,  besides the wood and stucco dwelling. I know there’re a lot of people with more money than they know what to do with but I can’t imagine them spending it on something like this. Unless minimum wage rises to $50 an hour these prices will have to drop a lot more.

The seller is amazingly brazen to try to push their financial disaster on someone else. Crazy!

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 12:23 PM

dataguy,

rent doesn’t have to come down for this place to be worth $600-$750. I think $4000 is reasonable 3-4 years from now. (They can’t even get that now. & I’m sure that’s bc it isn’t reasonable right now) & by IR’s multiplier that would be $650,000. Not $900,000.

In 2003, I can remember talking to coworkers & reading in the paper local economists saying that RE prices were already overvalued. & thinking to myself that a neighbor could only afford her mortgage on an 3/1 ARM.

I bought in 1999 & sold in 2004, making an awesome profit that went even bigger in the stock market. I don’t care what the eventual bottom # happens to be, but I just don’t think that one can assume $4800 is reasonable, especially when you can’t rent it at that price.

Posted by Stupid on 12/17/07 at 12:26 PM

Wow, what a link.  Crazy times.

She recalls a heartbreaking eviction before Christmas a few years ago. “The family’s little boy asked me: ‘How is Santa going to find us?’ ” Ms. Card says

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 12:31 PM

I agree with that on a large portion. The houses here do not offer any real backyard if you’re used to one.

But that doesn’t mean that 3-4 years from now, you won’t be able to find something good under $1 mil. In fact, considering the sheer % of people here who bought with ARMs & Neg Ams, I believe that I will be able to find a house with a yard for under a mil.

Posted by Ron on 12/17/07 at 12:35 PM

I live about a mile from this place and my property taxes are $1600 per YEAR.  No mello roos.  I remember back in ‘93 when I bought my home, I asked my agent what Mello-Roos was and when he explained, I thought “why would anyone buy a place with this tax when you could get a perfectly good older home without it?”

IIRC the MR tax is supposed to stop when the improvements it funded were paid for, but even back then, my real estate agent said “don’t count on it”.

Posted by Straight Digs on 12/17/07 at 12:35 PM

In the “old” days, due on sale clauses weren’t as prevalent and taking over the old loan was more desirable.  My understanding is that the vast majority of loans in the last 5-10 years are not easily assumed.  But there are some that are and it is worth it if the price is right AND the loan is right.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 12:36 PM

Irvine Renter,

I think some here have too much Schadenfreude.
They are likely to miss out; as I think their expectations are not aligned with market realities.  30-50% would still be my expectations.  I believe there is some irrational exuberance now that we are hot and heavy in the downturn.

Buyer,

I hope you are right.  I don’t plan to buy anytime soon.  I moved here at the peak and rented a house.

Posted by Buyer in 2010 on 12/17/07 at 12:39 PM

You are right that speculation tends to swing too much on upswings & downswings.

But that would actually run counter to your argument. If speculation brough prices way too high, then it should also bring prices way too low, as well.

Posted by dataguy on 12/17/07 at 12:41 PM

Buyer not necessarily….. there can be bag holders on both ends.  Bag holding on the bottom is MUCH less painful though… haha.

Posted by Straight Digs on 12/17/07 at 12:44 PM

IR, I suspect you’re right that most folks here understand economics fundamentals better than most.  However, some comments I’ve read suggest that the site also attracts some bears for bears sake.

There were folks in 2000 that thought that prices were too high.  I’ll bet some of them comment or lurk here as well.

Posted by shhhhh on 12/17/07 at 01:02 PM

I wonder ... if I set a hot plate next to my stove, can I call it a ‘gourmet kitchen.’  After all, it now has 5 burners.

Posted by Mark in Pa on 12/17/07 at 01:03 PM

For a million plus I’d at least want some real estate, land,  besides the wood and stucco dwelling. I know there’re a lot of people with more money than they know what to do with but I can’t imagine them spending it on something like this. Unless minimum wage rises to $50 an hour these prices will have to drop a lot more.

The seller is amazingly brazen to try to push their financial disaster on someone else. Crazy!


Oh and the link to the Craigslist rental listing was deleted today! They are watching and reading all of this. LOL.

Posted by Chuck Ponzi on 12/17/07 at 01:13 PM

My last home loan had an assumable clause.  That was 2003.  They’re not that rare, actually.  ABN AMRO has them as standard boilerplate loans.

Chuck Ponzi

Posted by houseonlegs on 12/17/07 at 01:46 PM

Owned by ORANGES,ADRIENNE LEE; THE ADRIENNE LEE ORANGES TRUST

Posted by zornundo on 12/17/07 at 01:52 PM

What is the median sales price of a home in Irvine?

Posted by IrvineRenter on 12/17/07 at 02:01 PM

I rarely if ever post the owners names on the blog. It is all public record, but it becomes a bit too personal when we know their names.

Posted by NanoWest on 12/17/07 at 02:03 PM

I went to Big Lots on Sunday and bought a brand new water heater pot to boil water in for my coffee…...it is really nice, stainless steel with a really nice pouring spout…..cost me $35.00.

Does this mean I have a gormet kitchen too?

Posted by IrvineRenter on 12/17/07 at 02:05 PM

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/10/07/irvine-median-home-price-history/

1988 $216,464
1989 $237,410
1990 $239,024
1991 $242,877
1992 $237,451
1993 $230,598
1994 $228,529
1995 $229,959
1996 $246,865
1997 $245,437
1998 $263,172
1999 $278,148
2000 $308,089
2001 $334,741
2002 $379,852
2003 $461,888
2004 $609,397
2005 $635,675
2006 $722,928
2007 $665,807—Through July

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