The RE permabulls see a (seasonal) dip in inventory and now they’re all over the news calling the bottom. I don’t buy it.
Months of inventory, active/pending ratios, interest rates, foreclosure trends. Funny how the bulls aren’t discussing any of these. Interest rates are of particular interest—When the yield curve reverts, it’ll be another pin jabbed into the housing bubble. ——-
Posted by anonymous on 10/23/06 at 09:27 AM
the agents and analysts can talk all they like, i waiting for the day to buy my next 4/2.5/2000 home for $350k!!!
Let me get this straight, foreclosures in Orange County are up 101% year-on-year and they are positive for 2007? Over 25% of job growth in California for the past five years has been tied to real estate and they are positive? Did they miss the story about WaMu laying off 9,300 people? They also sent over 3,000 jobs to India (I wonder how they’ll be buying SoCal real estate from Bangalore?). Or maybe they didn’t read the story about National City setting aside $73 million for bad loans, up 30 percent.
Nope, 2007 will be a-okay because the realtors said so! Go out and buy! Stated income for everyone! Free granite countertops for Christmas! Asking the realtors about the health of the economy next year is like asking my barber whether I need a haircut.
Posted by rerip2007 on 10/23/06 at 04:08 PM
“the agents and analysts can talk all they like, i waiting for the day to buy my next 4/2.5/2000 home for $350k!!! “
Dont be surprised if your 4/2.5/2000 home is offered at or under $300K when all is said and done. Just have your down payment and good credit ready in 2009.
I’ve been here since Spring 04, I didn’t buy right away - I couldn’t understand the disparity between the rent / own costs. I moved from the east coast where (at the time) owning was cheaper than renting. That money savings was the only reason I bought there. In Irvine, I can’t make the numbers work.
No matter how I look at it - it’s far cheaper to rent. I can rent a SFH is a very nice neighborhood or buy a condo in the hood for the same price - that’s not a tough decision as far as I can tell. Perhaps this correction will change the equation, but it would have to be a very significant correction.
My person prediction is that we will have a slow decline over several years while the rest of the economy catches up. O.C. is becoming the new Japan.
Posted by sidelined_buyer on 10/23/06 at 03:03 PM
how about 5bd/3ba/2100 for $450k in Mission Viejo? Older seller, has lots of cushion to work with.
MLS# P543747
Posted by oc_fliptrack on 10/23/06 at 08:19 AM
The RE permabulls see a (seasonal) dip in inventory and now they’re all over the news calling the bottom. I don’t buy it.
Months of inventory, active/pending ratios, interest rates, foreclosure trends. Funny how the bulls aren’t discussing any of these. Interest rates are of particular interest—When the yield curve reverts, it’ll be another pin jabbed into the housing bubble.
——-
Posted by anonymous on 10/23/06 at 09:27 AM
the agents and analysts can talk all they like, i waiting for the day to buy my next 4/2.5/2000 home for $350k!!!
our day will come!
Posted by DrHousingBubble on 10/23/06 at 09:55 AM
Let me get this straight, foreclosures in Orange County are up 101% year-on-year and they are positive for 2007? Over 25% of job growth in California for the past five years has been tied to real estate and they are positive? Did they miss the story about WaMu laying off 9,300 people? They also sent over 3,000 jobs to India (I wonder how they’ll be buying SoCal real estate from Bangalore?). Or maybe they didn’t read the story about National City setting aside $73 million for bad loans, up 30 percent.
Nope, 2007 will be a-okay because the realtors said so! Go out and buy! Stated income for everyone! Free granite countertops for Christmas! Asking the realtors about the health of the economy next year is like asking my barber whether I need a haircut.
Posted by rerip2007 on 10/23/06 at 04:08 PM
“the agents and analysts can talk all they like, i waiting for the day to buy my next 4/2.5/2000 home for $350k!!! “
Dont be surprised if your 4/2.5/2000 home is offered at or under $300K when all is said and done. Just have your down payment and good credit ready in 2009.
Posted by Jerry on 10/23/06 at 08:25 PM
I’ve been here since Spring 04, I didn’t buy right away - I couldn’t understand the disparity between the rent / own costs. I moved from the east coast where (at the time) owning was cheaper than renting. That money savings was the only reason I bought there. In Irvine, I can’t make the numbers work.
No matter how I look at it - it’s far cheaper to rent. I can rent a SFH is a very nice neighborhood or buy a condo in the hood for the same price - that’s not a tough decision as far as I can tell. Perhaps this correction will change the equation, but it would have to be a very significant correction.
My person prediction is that we will have a slow decline over several years while the rest of the economy catches up. O.C. is becoming the new Japan.
But that’s just my opinion, I could be wrong.