Posted by kishore (renter) on 10/07/07 at 12:09 PM
there’s a big gap between 2003 and 2004.. i think we’re somewhere at 2004 prices now. to go down to 2003 prices, a recession may need to happen.. i hope it does go down though..
Posted by Stupid on 10/07/07 at 12:58 PM
Is there a 20 year graph? Would be interesting to see the rise & fall from the last boom.
Posted by steve on 10/07/07 at 12:59 PM
the median home price will bottom at 3.5 times median income like it does after every Orange County housing boom (and during the recession that we are about to experience over the next 3 years, median income will also drop).
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 01:14 PM
The hammer drops
America’s houses are being repossessed at a record rate. What comes next?
The good, bad and ugly
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071006/A_BIZ/710060313
Klor, a tax expert and enrolled agent the past 14 years in Stockton, fielded a call from a middle-aged woman who lives in a home she paid about $475,000 for and soon bought three more homes as investments with mortgages of at least $350,000 each.
She told Klor she already had lost two of the homes and the third investment home was in the process of being foreclosed. She felt confident she had enough income to be able to keep her primary residence, although she has no savings.
“She is losing sleep over this. Potentially, she could be on the hook for taxes of over $300,000 in income in a single year,” Klor said, noting the income is derived from the forgiveness of debt.
“She will have some huge income exposures because of the three foreclosures. She should contact her tax adviser to get some tax relief. There is a legal way to reduce the tax if you meet the IRS rules for being insolvent,” he said. “This is an example of someone who got greedy and now it is coming back to haunt her.”
Posted by Stupid on 10/07/07 at 01:59 PM
Give up on graphs and math ... just put a coin in and pull the lever ...
Despite home prices that are in some instances the lowest in years and a vast inventory, many buyers still seem to be trying to time the market, which is “more about being lucky as being good,” said Emily DiSimone, president of the California Desert Association of Realtors.
Posted by No_Such_Reality on 10/07/07 at 02:54 PM
I disagree. That big gap is funky loans. In reality, 2003 would have been the real peak of the cycle if not for the creative loans.
Given such, we’ll probably see ‘98, ‘99 inflation adjusted prices particularly because of the overshoot back to the downside.
The second big question will be now that the easy RE money is gone, how much with Irvine and OC communities income drop.
Oh, if you’re freaking and thinking I’m wearing a tinfoil hat, remember ‘98 inflation adjusted price is 2001 nominal pricing.
Posted by Kirk on 10/07/07 at 03:16 PM
I agree with you almost 100%. The only thing that I think is off is the 2001 price tag part. With the dollar falling and the very real possibility of high inflation we may see more like a 2003 price tag which would equate to 1998 pricing in real terms. Unless the Fed reverses course, I think this is what is going to happen.
I wonder which will be first: dollar collapse or stock market crash. Either one will cause the other right now.
Posted by Kirk on 10/07/07 at 03:20 PM
...many buyers still seem to be trying to time the market, which is “more about being lucky as being good,” said Emily DiSimone, president of the California Desert Association of Realtors.
LOL! Yeah, buyers are fools for not buying right now…
Posted by lunatic fringe on 10/07/07 at 05:53 PM
Gotta disagree with you Kirk. I don’t see us stalling out at 2003 prices unless we get wage inflation, which I certainly don’t see happening with a lot of high paying finance and real estate jobs going bye bye.
Just a gut feeling is that we will seriously overshoot the trendline on the way back down. 2001 prices are now my high range of price drops.
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 07:33 PM
Sign of the times: Auction in Sherman Oaks
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/10/sign-of-the-tim.html
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 07:48 PM
The pressure’s on
With the market cooling, so-so agents face the scrutiny—wrath, even—of disgruntled clients. The state is bracing for a rise in complaints.
You have a good point about wage inflation. I do expect stagflation. But, the other question is when do we hit bottom? The further out the bottom is, the more inflation has eroded the dollar here at home. I would love 2001 “sticker” prices, but I just don’t see it happening. I say 2003 sticker prices in 2009. Of course, I actually ran numbers at one time, but forgot what they came out to be, so I’m just saying this off the cuff. We shall see.
Posted by Kirk on 10/07/07 at 07:50 PM
Eroded because of modest wage inflation I might add.
SACRAMENTO, Calif.—Mortgage companies will have to do a better job warning prospective California home buyers about the kind of risky loans that have led to tens of thousands of defaults and foreclosures, under a bill signed Friday by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The law applies federal lending guidelines to more than 4,800 state-licensed financial institutions, mortgage brokers and real estate agents, including lenders such as San Francisco-based Bank of the West, Calabasas-based Countrywide Financial Corp. and Orange-based Ameriquest Mortgage Co.
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 07:55 PM
William Lyon Homes Reports New Home Orders, Closings and Backlog
New home orders for the three months ended September 30, 2007 were 337, a decrease of 33% as compared to 501 for the three months ended September 30, 2006.
...
The Company’s cancellation rate for the three months ended September 30, 2007 was 42%, compared to 39% for the three months ended September 30, 2006.
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:23 PM
Re: out usual debate - is the grass greener in Seattle?
Let the buyer rejoice: Home sales, prices fall
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2003929200_homesales06.html
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:37 PM
Schenfreude alert - new TV show “Please Buy My House” on TLC
Please Buy My House
http://television.aol.com/show/please-buy-my-house/1329217/main
Did you watch Please Buy My House on TLC?
http://activerain.com/blogsview/228602/Did-you-watch-Please
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:41 PM
If you missed it it’s going to rerun at the following times (see link below)
Show schedule
http://tlc.discovery.com/tv-schedules/special.html?paid=2.14903.55792.0.0
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:48 PM
Schenfreude alert - new “Please Buy My House” show on TLC
Desperate house selling times call for desperate measures…
If you missed it it’s going to rerun at the following times (see link below)
Show schedule
http://tlc.discovery.com/tv-schedules/special.html?paid=2.14903.55792.0.0
Did you watch Please Buy My House on TLC?
http://activerain.com/blogsview/228602/Did-you-watch-Please
Please Buy My House
http://television.aol.com/show/please-buy-my-house/1329217/main
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:48 PM
Sorry, posted in the wrong spot - that was supposed to go with the “Please, Buy My House!” topic
Posted by Rafael on 10/07/07 at 08:41 AM
Will it get back to 2001, 2002, or 2003 pricing?
——-
Posted by Derek on 10/07/07 at 08:52 AM
what is the source for this data? HPI? Case-Shiller?
Posted by Stupid on 10/07/07 at 09:28 AM
Foreclosure investors as white knights?
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/10/06/foreclosure-investors-as-white-knights/
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 09:34 AM
Greenspan says U.S. economic growth slowing
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2007/10/07/greenspan_says_us_economic_growth_slowing/
Posted by ice weasel on 10/07/07 at 10:55 AM
I wonder what happened in 2000?
hmmmmm…
Posted by kishore (renter) on 10/07/07 at 12:09 PM
there’s a big gap between 2003 and 2004.. i think we’re somewhere at 2004 prices now. to go down to 2003 prices, a recession may need to happen.. i hope it does go down though..
Posted by Stupid on 10/07/07 at 12:58 PM
Is there a 20 year graph? Would be interesting to see the rise & fall from the last boom.
Posted by steve on 10/07/07 at 12:59 PM
the median home price will bottom at 3.5 times median income like it does after every Orange County housing boom (and during the recession that we are about to experience over the next 3 years, median income will also drop).
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 01:14 PM
The hammer drops
America’s houses are being repossessed at a record rate. What comes next?
http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9905451
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 01:51 PM
Thoughts anyone re: mortgage forgiveness debt relief?
H.R. 3648
Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act Of 2007
http://waysandmeans.house.gov/media/pdf/110/Markup Summary4.pdf
The good, bad and ugly
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071006/A_BIZ/710060313
Klor, a tax expert and enrolled agent the past 14 years in Stockton, fielded a call from a middle-aged woman who lives in a home she paid about $475,000 for and soon bought three more homes as investments with mortgages of at least $350,000 each.
She told Klor she already had lost two of the homes and the third investment home was in the process of being foreclosed. She felt confident she had enough income to be able to keep her primary residence, although she has no savings.
“She is losing sleep over this. Potentially, she could be on the hook for taxes of over $300,000 in income in a single year,” Klor said, noting the income is derived from the forgiveness of debt.
“She will have some huge income exposures because of the three foreclosures. She should contact her tax adviser to get some tax relief. There is a legal way to reduce the tax if you meet the IRS rules for being insolvent,” he said. “This is an example of someone who got greedy and now it is coming back to haunt her.”
Posted by Stupid on 10/07/07 at 01:59 PM
Give up on graphs and math ... just put a coin in and pull the lever ...
Home sales plummet 54 percent
http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071005/BUSINESS04/710050351/1003/business
Despite home prices that are in some instances the lowest in years and a vast inventory, many buyers still seem to be trying to time the market, which is “more about being lucky as being good,” said Emily DiSimone, president of the California Desert Association of Realtors.
Posted by No_Such_Reality on 10/07/07 at 02:54 PM
I disagree. That big gap is funky loans. In reality, 2003 would have been the real peak of the cycle if not for the creative loans.
Given such, we’ll probably see ‘98, ‘99 inflation adjusted prices particularly because of the overshoot back to the downside.
The second big question will be now that the easy RE money is gone, how much with Irvine and OC communities income drop.
Oh, if you’re freaking and thinking I’m wearing a tinfoil hat, remember ‘98 inflation adjusted price is 2001 nominal pricing.
Posted by Kirk on 10/07/07 at 03:16 PM
I agree with you almost 100%. The only thing that I think is off is the 2001 price tag part. With the dollar falling and the very real possibility of high inflation we may see more like a 2003 price tag which would equate to 1998 pricing in real terms. Unless the Fed reverses course, I think this is what is going to happen.
I wonder which will be first: dollar collapse or stock market crash. Either one will cause the other right now.
Posted by Kirk on 10/07/07 at 03:20 PM
...many buyers still seem to be trying to time the market, which is “more about being lucky as being good,” said Emily DiSimone, president of the California Desert Association of Realtors.
LOL! Yeah, buyers are fools for not buying right now…
Posted by lunatic fringe on 10/07/07 at 05:53 PM
Gotta disagree with you Kirk. I don’t see us stalling out at 2003 prices unless we get wage inflation, which I certainly don’t see happening with a lot of high paying finance and real estate jobs going bye bye.
Just a gut feeling is that we will seriously overshoot the trendline on the way back down. 2001 prices are now my high range of price drops.
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 07:33 PM
Sign of the times: Auction in Sherman Oaks
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/10/sign-of-the-tim.html
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 07:48 PM
The pressure’s on
With the market cooling, so-so agents face the scrutiny—wrath, even—of disgruntled clients. The state is bracing for a rise in complaints.
http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-re-perform7oct07,0,4468335.story?page=1&coll=la-home-center
Posted by Kirk on 10/07/07 at 07:49 PM
You have a good point about wage inflation. I do expect stagflation. But, the other question is when do we hit bottom? The further out the bottom is, the more inflation has eroded the dollar here at home. I would love 2001 “sticker” prices, but I just don’t see it happening. I say 2003 sticker prices in 2009. Of course, I actually ran numbers at one time, but forgot what they came out to be, so I’m just saying this off the cuff. We shall see.
Posted by Kirk on 10/07/07 at 07:50 PM
Eroded because of modest wage inflation I might add.
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 07:53 PM
California Tightens Rules For Mortgage Lenders
http://www.kcra.com/news/14282211/detail.html?rss=sac&psp=news
SACRAMENTO, Calif.—Mortgage companies will have to do a better job warning prospective California home buyers about the kind of risky loans that have led to tens of thousands of defaults and foreclosures, under a bill signed Friday by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The law applies federal lending guidelines to more than 4,800 state-licensed financial institutions, mortgage brokers and real estate agents, including lenders such as San Francisco-based Bank of the West, Calabasas-based Countrywide Financial Corp. and Orange-based Ameriquest Mortgage Co.
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 07:55 PM
William Lyon Homes Reports New Home Orders, Closings and Backlog
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20071005005615&newsLang=en
New home orders for the three months ended September 30, 2007 were 337, a decrease of 33% as compared to 501 for the three months ended September 30, 2006.
...
The Company’s cancellation rate for the three months ended September 30, 2007 was 42%, compared to 39% for the three months ended September 30, 2006.
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:23 PM
Re: out usual debate - is the grass greener in Seattle?
Let the buyer rejoice: Home sales, prices fall
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2003929200_homesales06.html
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:37 PM
Schenfreude alert - new TV show “Please Buy My House” on TLC
Please Buy My House
http://television.aol.com/show/please-buy-my-house/1329217/main
Did you watch Please Buy My House on TLC?
http://activerain.com/blogsview/228602/Did-you-watch-Please
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:41 PM
If you missed it it’s going to rerun at the following times (see link below)
Show schedule
http://tlc.discovery.com/tv-schedules/special.html?paid=2.14903.55792.0.0
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:48 PM
Schenfreude alert - new “Please Buy My House” show on TLC
Desperate house selling times call for desperate measures…
If you missed it it’s going to rerun at the following times (see link below)
Show schedule
http://tlc.discovery.com/tv-schedules/special.html?paid=2.14903.55792.0.0
Did you watch Please Buy My House on TLC?
http://activerain.com/blogsview/228602/Did-you-watch-Please
Please Buy My House
http://television.aol.com/show/please-buy-my-house/1329217/main
Posted by Sue on 10/07/07 at 08:48 PM
Sorry, posted in the wrong spot - that was supposed to go with the “Please, Buy My House!” topic
Posted by ricccnara on 11/19/07 at 11:13 PM
getbocero