Those two house are beautiful, and I would be happy in either one.  They just aren’t worth the money, though.  It’s almost like we had a raging party last night (long night from 2000-2006), and now we’re waking up the next morning with someone that isn’t quite what we remember…

I’m guessing this will be a long and painful hangover.  I would buy the bluejay house for 450k.  I might get the chance…
——-

There was a commenter (probably a realtor) on yesterday’s post who stated 30 Bluejay is in backup offers. Perhaps they will visit again today and provide more information.

When you compare this property to 10 Bluejay, you have to believe 30 Bluejay commands a $150 / SF premium for being single-story and updated interior.

If this seller can actually get this price, more power to them. As for the new buyer, to quote Forrest Gump, “Stupid is as stupid does.“

RE: Address: 2 Mallard, Irvine, CA 92604

Asking Price:  $1,299,900 (WTF)

Purchase Price: $875,000

Purchase Date: 10/21/2005

I don’t care if they plated the ceilings with gold it ain’t worth a $424,900 premium on top of what they paid less than two years ago.  Prices are going down, not up.  LoL

I can’t believe these got WTF.  Don’t you see the obnoxiously large green safe as one of the selling features.  And the other one, with a picture dedicated to showing off the BBQ.  That’s top notch stuff!!!

I vote that they don’t get the WTF award, I vote that they get the OMG WTF LOL award. Or the WTF^2 award or the how about a gigantic picture of the Kool-Aid man breaking through the wall =)  (Of course, thinly disguised to avoid trademark and copyright infringement)

Top 10 finds.  As for the backup offers thing, I wonder if it’s actual or fraudulent, only time will tell.

I have to admit the interiors are pretty awesome but then again so is the price, not!!!!

I am still dumbfounded as to why so many FBs believe that by adding granite counter tops, nice back splashes, some upgrades in the bathroom, and maybe wood or tile floors doubles the value of their home.

Darin…..I like the Kool-Aid man idea.  We should put a dunce cap on him.

Of course the entrenched RE salespeople are going to go kicking and screaming into the new world.  Their last world was wonderful and pretty filled with lots and lots of Kool-Aid….

Someday we’ll only need the agents as buyers and sellers and i’ll talk face to face with the owners.  It is just stupid right now.
Anyways good luck
-bix

I rent the same model as the 2 Mallard- it is a nice house- but the bedrooms are a little small.  I would buy this unit if the owner let us and remodel the whole thing.  It would require new pipes though- For example, one cannot turn on the sinks if one is taking a shower.  The water temperature goes totally hot.  One thing I do not like is that there is no kitchen table “nook”.  The table is smack in the corner of the family room.

But what annoys me so much is when these ads “quantify” the level of upgrades.  I cannot believe they spent $300K in upgrades.  It’s like they put that number out there, but that is really what they want in terms of profit.

I was wondering what kind of upgrades you could get for $300k.  Does this mean they put a new roof on?

Also, is it my imagination or is the backyard about 20 yards deep, and it backs up against a street?  That’s what you get for $1.2 Mil?

20 yards deep would be massive by Irvine standards. This back yard is probably 60’ wide by 25’ deep. As it is a corner lot, it may be a bit wider than a standard lot in the neighborhood, and it probably has a usable side yard.

As for the $300,000, that is almost $150 / SF. You could tear down the structure and replace it for that much money. Anyone spending more than $25 / SF on a renovation is throwing money away. I am somewhat suspect of the amount claimed in renovation costs. I think JoonB above is exactly right: they claimed what the want in profit, not what they actually spent.

Hey, what about Quail Hill for next week?

The Olivos tract was $800k-900k new in 2004.  They are listing at around $1.5 million today, except a property in rough shape going through foreclosure.  It should be the model of your hypothesis, since they are all new and build-out was near the peak.

There are some stubborn sellers up in Quail Hill. I will profile it soon.

Check out 111 Tall Oak. Big loss there.

Or 29 Perennial. It will probably be a 2004 rollback.

4 words:

Pressure Balanced Shower Valve.

$100 to $200 at Home Depot.

Gets rid of hot/cold shocks.  It’s not a piping problem.

Chuck Ponzi

Please do profile 111 Talk Oak.  It is simply SpleSplended!!!

I believe during the boom, due to easy money people would pay what ever they where quoted.

I would hear from friends that they would got very different estimates on work for the back yard, as much as 100k difference.

when money was free, why bother negotiating.

I’m shocked that a realtor would agree to list at 1.3 mil for the 2 mallard house. maybe if I go and offer 400k. that will kick some sense into the realtor and seller to wake up and price lower.

1.3 mil will get a much newer, nicer and bigger house in one of the newer communities ie woodbury, portolo springs or north park if you are really interested in an Irvine address. if you go a little south you can get much more for you money. that’s if you really wanted to buy right NOW.

I think with the new lending guidlines, if you put down 5% =65k, your monthly nut would be roughly around 8k for a 70s house 2000 sqft.  OUCH.

as for move up buyers, I dont see any one moving up into this house. unless you were moving up from a small Condo and made a nice profit which you want to waste on this home. again I know there are some GF out there.  I’m amazed and will be surprised if this sell for more that 500K which I still think is too much for this home.

Bahh!  I think I’ll start taking a black marker around to all the flyers and just cross out the price and put in what I think is real for these houses.  And then just put all the flyers back in the box.  I’d love to stick around when the potential buyers see the corrected price, come inside the open house and talk with the baffled real estate agents. 

hee hee

I, too, always felt queasy about the realtor ads quantifying the upgrades.  How do I know the homeowner who spent $80K (or in this case $300K, OMG, lol!) negotiated enough to ensure the best value for their money?  Maybe the homeowner was taken for a ride and ended up with an $80K bathroom.  I’d like to walk through the place with my contracting buddies and see what they estimate the jobs actually ran.  The upgrade amount is often pitched as a positive whether the house needed it or not.

Did the owner upgraded beyond the standard set by the neighborhood?  An extreme example would be putting marble floors in a house located in Compton—the house won’t increase in value much.

How many first time buyers have $65k (5%) to use on a down payment?  Those are the kind of numbers that help explain to me that this real estate market cannot last.  If nobody new can enter the market, the market will die.

A few months ago I thought I would single-handedly try and drive the prices down in my town by going to all the houses for sale and make offers for what the houses are really worth.

I got a reply from Gary Watts.

——-Original Message——-
From: Gary Watts [mailto:gary@impactre.com]
Sent: Thursday, June 28, 2007 2:59 PM
To: ‘Donna’
Subject: RE:

Huajun,

The 1990’s was caused by massive unemployment as both aerospace and
manufacturing took a hit along with defense contractors when the Berlin
Wall
came down.

Today, our economy is so much more diversified and with computers
tracking
business in “real time”, it is less likely to have a major down-turn.

Thus, housing can have its ups and downs but the downs are small while
the
ups are pretty steady.

Gary

——-Original Message——-
From: Donna [mailto:donna@impactre.com]
Sent: Thursday, June 28, 2007 3:55 PM
To: Gary@impactre.com
Subject: FW:

——-Original Message——-
From: huajun yan [mailto:squareround@yahoo.com]
Sent: Thursday, June 28, 2007 2:42 PM
To: info@impactre.com
Subject:

You keep saying the world has changed since 1979.  Why
we still got a serious housing market crash in early
90’s? Do you meen we will never have a housing market
crash from now on because of the world change? It will
be always up up up?

Deliberate misleading is not very nice.

IR,

We also need to see what is going on to the housing market in the areas outside of Irvine i.e. the adjoining areas. If you go further south into Lake Forest and Aliso Viejo you can see that the market is taking a sound beating and people who bought over the last two years are taking a serious hit.

The weak points will always get hit first and will be the first to fall. To me these are the first lines of defense that were protecting Irvine valuations. Now that these defenses are breaking down, Irvine is not too far away from these downward trends.

So my thought is that we should keep our eyes on the areas surrounding Irvine too, because the deterioration in those markets are a precursor to what is going to hit the inflated valuations in Irvine.

PH

That is a hilarious idea A-S!

Another one is to get huge “Rollback” signs from Walmart and place them on the lawns of homes that are rolling back prices to 2004 levels.  Then take pictures of them and post them.

If only I were a rambunctious teenager…

Right on. That is exactly what I think too.

There are other factors however that will keep the market alive for a while, such as overseas buyers coming from Asia with suitcases of cash. 

In time, the whole city will become another Monterey Park!

Too, these buyers usually work with RE agents who take a 1% to 2% commission only.

in the last 2 months, just 4 transcations have been recorded.
that pretty low number for the area with 88 homes for sale. It will take 3 years and 8 months to deplet the inventory with that rate.
they are about to break down.

IR,
u may also check this one out:

212 Dewdrop, Irvine, CA 92603
06/08/2007: $477,000
06/30/2005: $551,000
01/21/2004: $370,500

looks like 2004 price to me

hey pete, I dont believe overseas buyers are dumb, they probably follow and know this market better that we do. they did not become rich by making dumb decisions.  maybe at the bottom you will see some overseas investor, but now think not.

How about the kool-aid guy smoking a crack pipe?

That is funny, thank you for posting.

I don’t get why he is so stubborn about calling this top. Back in 1989 he gave a speech announcing “the party is over.“ He accurately called the top of the market. Back in 1989, there was no problem with unemployment. All the “causes” he listed occurred from 1991 to 1994 while the crash was already underway.

Perhaps now that he has become a shill, he is just playing his part to support a dieing market. Although, people who hear him speak get the impression he really believes what he says.

Too much kool aid…

“Today, our economy is so much more diversified and with computers tracking business in “real time”, it is less likely to have a major down-turn.“
Y’all just don’t get it.  It is different this time.  It is “real time”.  It is CDOs and CDO squareds and CDO cubeds and derivatives of CDOs and interest rate swaps and credit default swaps that have hedged against risk and taken the potential downside out of the market.  With computers, people are smarter and we will no longer have extreme business cycles.  The risk is contained.  But please, do not pay any attention to that hedge fund behind the curtain.

Nevermind that computers themselves caused the dotcom boom-bust 8-10 years ago.

Another random link

American Home Mortgage pulls outlook on credit losses

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070628:MTFH52122_2007-06-28_20-55-02_WNAS4975&type=comktNews&rpc=44

“NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) on Thursday withdrew its 2007 earnings forecast, and will likely suffer a surprise second-quarter loss as it takes “substantial” charges for credit-related losses.“

...

“The company specializes in prime and near-prime loans, and makes roughly 2.5 percent of all U.S. mortgages. “

I rebuilt my house from the ground up for 300K… and added a second story, new custom kitchen with Viking, dual sinks, plus 900 more sq feet, dual HVAC with four zones, etc, etc…

But of course, we live in TR and we did this in 97 to 99. 

Woodbridge must be very special.

I’ll sell you my house is TR for 1.3 mil.

5 bedrooms, 3 baths, brand new custom kitchen on new slab, dual HVAC, etc, etc… plus 1500 feet of Cat 5E and 500 feet of RG6.  Multiple electrical homeruns and two wiring closets.

Come on up!

I see that 29 Perennial is the “Sought after plan 7”.. Wow.  I wonder if the realtor actually knows of people seeking this plan?  If so why doesn’t he just get their phone numbers and help them find it?  “Sought after plan 7” sounds special, kind of like “Sought after plan 67(b3).revision 4.1.23.4.5(a)“

Assuming that 30 bluejay was purchased at a reasonable price in 2002 for $433,500 than it should be valued at 580,120 if it earned an annualized rate of 6.0%. 

This is a far cry from 829,000.  This assanine price is equates to over 13% a year in appreciation.  In order to be back in line with a realistic rate of return, the seller will need to drop his/her price by 30%.

I actually saw this house yesterday.  The $300K might be a bit high, but not by much.  He showed us the FIFTY THOSAND DOLLAR upgrade in the little master bath.  I believe it, but why was it done?  The hardwood floors are very nice and very expensive.  All the other stuff was done very well.  But it’s just too much and the seller is trying to re-coop his costs.

Yes, a new 50 year roof, among lots of other stuff.

The seller will easily get over $1 million, probably very close to $1.2 million.