Zillow has this property as a condo, so I must take back my comment on the land potential, i.e., reconstruction. I like the location. Yale inner-loop.
Posted by Brian on 10/17/09 at 08:18 AM
Yikes! $475K for 1241 square feet. That seems quite steep. Also of interesting note, this buyer bought at the end of the last housing bubble.
Posted by newbie2008 on 10/17/09 at 08:55 AM
Buy before your priced out of the maarket.
It’s only $383 / sq ft.
The house is nice. One story, not a new McStacker with 400 sf on each floor. I would much rather have a single story than a modern McStacker in QH or TRidge. This land and single store house have much more potential.
As for the appraiser using another house’s photo, banks could easy check using maps.google.com street view. I saw one picture: someone was breaking in to a house. :]
Posted by tonye on 10/17/09 at 10:02 AM
Link to the property listing don’t work
Posted by tonye on 10/17/09 at 10:11 AM
Not really. By ‘91 prices had dropped quite a bit from the previous years.
What this buyer did not see for quite a few years was significant appreciation (91 to 97 or so)
Posted by Redfin on 10/17/09 at 10:16 AM
THANK YOU!
Posted by cara on 10/17/09 at 11:21 AM
Hi IR,
I have a request, a week or so ago you brought up an idea that I’ve really latched onto. Which is to buy something with a 30-year mortgage (and affordable payment) and then each year you get a raise, to keep your DTI constant, thus paying off the mortgage in less time. I think you gave a ballpark of 22 years.
It doesn’t look to me like we’re going to be able to get what I want in a long term house at a payment that would be currently affordable at a 15 or 20 year rate on one of our two semi-equal salaries (would get a 30 year mortgage anyway as a built-in unemployment insurance…). So, with this change in attitude, I’d still like to think it will be possible to pay off the mortgage before our (as yet unconcieved) kids go to college.
Could you provide a sample amoritization table for what say 3% raises each year would do? (assuming also standard increases in property tax and insurance). A calculator would be even better.
Posted by Graham on 10/17/09 at 11:45 AM
Thanks for the great list of news items.
Your inclusion of “still delusional” in your news list is appropriate considering how powerful the delusional group, underwater homeowners, is as an aggregate.
The number one barrier to any resolve of the economy local, because all real estate is local, is the misguided belief that my house is worth more than my neighbors. Now it seems denial has returned and is in play about future values.
It has been an uphill fight for this group to come to grips with the present value of their abode and now that this is almost accomplished they want to return the misguided state by by adopting beliefs that the future holds better values for their house. The future is a big place and maybe everyone will be right at sometime but how long will it take? The size of the vested interest determines the length of delusion.
From Graham, residing in the largest ongoing real estate bubble in North America, Vancouver,Canada.
Posted by LC on 10/17/09 at 11:53 AM
Wow, Irvine has been building screwed up housing since way back in 1981. Cramped, poor design and styling, cheap materials, crowded together and only good for the bottom line of the Irvine Company. This is what your brand new house in Irvine will look like in 30 years. Get your head examined now.
Posted by Sue in Irvine on 10/17/09 at 05:43 PM
These places are near me. There are 2 condos attached by one wall only. This one story has 2 different models. They are basically the same except the back of the condo on the yard/patio side. They have little side yards too. One model has a really nice bay window in the kitchen. All these condos have decent size yards/patios. The 2 story homes are fairly large. Actually, considering this is inside the loop near the schools the price is decent. I know, I know. I’m sorry, I guess I’ve lived in Irvine way too long.
Posted by newbie2008 on 10/17/09 at 08:49 PM
Buy the below average house needing cosmetic repairs in the neighorhood and know that your house value is less than the averge in your neighborhood—No delusions. It also likey to appreciate percentage wies because the other house will drag your house along.
Most of the SoCA houses are built with 2x4 stucco construction that is low to medium quality. The 2x4 construction is very forgiving to earth quakes. For the most part, the current constuction is much better than post WWII to 1970’s.
Posted by scott on 10/18/09 at 05:17 PM
Here is link to Angry Bear on a Irvine foreclosure -
Dr. Black had a link to foreclosures in Irvine, California. This one especially caught my eye:
5031 Alcorn Lane, Turtle Rock
Amount owed: $298,876.14
Last sale: July 2001, $485,000
Auction date & time: Nov. 5 at 10 a.m.
Location: In front of the flagpoles at Placentia Civic Center, 401-411 E. Chapman Ave.
Trustee sale #: JPM-580
Information: 714-573-1965 [emphasis mine]
I assume the JPM means JPMorganChase, though that’s not the important thing.
If you look at the other houses, the “last sale” and “amount owed” values are fairly close, or the Amount Owed is higher. Which is what you would expect.
But not only is this one not higher, it’s not even close. It’s almost a 40% decline from the last sale date—and more than a $185,000 difference. And 2001 wasn’t exactly top of the bubble anywhere, especially not in Irvine.
Why does a house get foreclosed? Because it can’t be sold to cover costs adequately. But in this case, we’re not even talking about needing a short sale.
No one was willing and able to bid enough on the property to keep it from being foreclosed.
Nearly 40% below 2001 levels would be severe. The Shiller Real Home Price Index indicates that prices are just about even with (maybe 2% below) their 2001 level.
Either this is a real outlier, or the housing crisis is much worse than even the most pessimistic predictions.
Hmm.. I think I know this house, and I think I know the owners. A$$holes. She’s in our HOA Board and he’s in our Park and Rec Board. Both of them are what i’d call “white trash”... they think they’re great but bottom they are jerks.
If this is the right house, it’s a rental that was being used as one of them old folks assisted living house. It has cause quite a ruckus in the community and I doubt they were able to show it. Nevermind what it must look like inside.
It’s a 1800 sq sq foot, 4 bedroom, 2 bath house and the owners are (were) cheap. There’s a small, illegal “second story” built into the attic.. you can see the window over the front door.
I would consider this place an outlier as this would be the 1988 price.
Posted by newbie2008 on 10/17/09 at 09:21 AM
Zillow has this property as a condo, so I must take back my comment on the land potential, i.e., reconstruction. I like the location. Yale inner-loop.
Posted by Brian on 10/17/09 at 08:18 AM
Yikes! $475K for 1241 square feet. That seems quite steep. Also of interesting note, this buyer bought at the end of the last housing bubble.
Posted by newbie2008 on 10/17/09 at 08:55 AM
Buy before your priced out of the maarket.
It’s only $383 / sq ft.
The house is nice. One story, not a new McStacker with 400 sf on each floor. I would much rather have a single story than a modern McStacker in QH or TRidge. This land and single store house have much more potential.
As for the appraiser using another house’s photo, banks could easy check using maps.google.com street view. I saw one picture: someone was breaking in to a house. :]
Posted by tonye on 10/17/09 at 10:02 AM
Link to the property listing don’t work
Posted by tonye on 10/17/09 at 10:11 AM
Not really. By ‘91 prices had dropped quite a bit from the previous years.
What this buyer did not see for quite a few years was significant appreciation (91 to 97 or so)
Posted by Redfin on 10/17/09 at 10:16 AM
THANK YOU!
Posted by cara on 10/17/09 at 11:21 AM
Hi IR,
I have a request, a week or so ago you brought up an idea that I’ve really latched onto. Which is to buy something with a 30-year mortgage (and affordable payment) and then each year you get a raise, to keep your DTI constant, thus paying off the mortgage in less time. I think you gave a ballpark of 22 years.
It doesn’t look to me like we’re going to be able to get what I want in a long term house at a payment that would be currently affordable at a 15 or 20 year rate on one of our two semi-equal salaries (would get a 30 year mortgage anyway as a built-in unemployment insurance…). So, with this change in attitude, I’d still like to think it will be possible to pay off the mortgage before our (as yet unconcieved) kids go to college.
Could you provide a sample amoritization table for what say 3% raises each year would do? (assuming also standard increases in property tax and insurance). A calculator would be even better.
Posted by Graham on 10/17/09 at 11:45 AM
Thanks for the great list of news items.
Your inclusion of “still delusional” in your news list is appropriate considering how powerful the delusional group, underwater homeowners, is as an aggregate.
The number one barrier to any resolve of the economy local, because all real estate is local, is the misguided belief that my house is worth more than my neighbors. Now it seems denial has returned and is in play about future values.
It has been an uphill fight for this group to come to grips with the present value of their abode and now that this is almost accomplished they want to return the misguided state by by adopting beliefs that the future holds better values for their house. The future is a big place and maybe everyone will be right at sometime but how long will it take? The size of the vested interest determines the length of delusion.
From Graham, residing in the largest ongoing real estate bubble in North America, Vancouver,Canada.
Posted by LC on 10/17/09 at 11:53 AM
Wow, Irvine has been building screwed up housing since way back in 1981. Cramped, poor design and styling, cheap materials, crowded together and only good for the bottom line of the Irvine Company. This is what your brand new house in Irvine will look like in 30 years. Get your head examined now.
Posted by Sue in Irvine on 10/17/09 at 05:43 PM
These places are near me. There are 2 condos attached by one wall only. This one story has 2 different models. They are basically the same except the back of the condo on the yard/patio side. They have little side yards too. One model has a really nice bay window in the kitchen. All these condos have decent size yards/patios. The 2 story homes are fairly large. Actually, considering this is inside the loop near the schools the price is decent. I know, I know. I’m sorry, I guess I’ve lived in Irvine way too long.
Posted by newbie2008 on 10/17/09 at 08:49 PM
Buy the below average house needing cosmetic repairs in the neighorhood and know that your house value is less than the averge in your neighborhood—No delusions. It also likey to appreciate percentage wies because the other house will drag your house along.
Most of the SoCA houses are built with 2x4 stucco construction that is low to medium quality. The 2x4 construction is very forgiving to earth quakes. For the most part, the current constuction is much better than post WWII to 1970’s.
Posted by scott on 10/18/09 at 05:17 PM
Here is link to Angry Bear on a Irvine foreclosure -
Dr. Black had a link to foreclosures in Irvine, California. This one especially caught my eye:
5031 Alcorn Lane, Turtle Rock
Amount owed: $298,876.14
Last sale: July 2001, $485,000
Auction date & time: Nov. 5 at 10 a.m.
Location: In front of the flagpoles at Placentia Civic Center, 401-411 E. Chapman Ave.
Trustee sale #: JPM-580
Information: 714-573-1965 [emphasis mine]
I assume the JPM means JPMorganChase, though that’s not the important thing.
If you look at the other houses, the “last sale” and “amount owed” values are fairly close, or the Amount Owed is higher. Which is what you would expect.
But not only is this one not higher, it’s not even close. It’s almost a 40% decline from the last sale date—and more than a $185,000 difference. And 2001 wasn’t exactly top of the bubble anywhere, especially not in Irvine.
Why does a house get foreclosed? Because it can’t be sold to cover costs adequately. But in this case, we’re not even talking about needing a short sale.
No one was willing and able to bid enough on the property to keep it from being foreclosed.
Nearly 40% below 2001 levels would be severe. The Shiller Real Home Price Index indicates that prices are just about even with (maybe 2% below) their 2001 level.
Either this is a real outlier, or the housing crisis is much worse than even the most pessimistic predictions.
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/10/scariest-irvine-foreclosure.html
Posted by tonye on 10/19/09 at 08:22 PM
Hmm.. I think I know this house, and I think I know the owners. A$$holes. She’s in our HOA Board and he’s in our Park and Rec Board. Both of them are what i’d call “white trash”... they think they’re great but bottom they are jerks.
If this is the right house, it’s a rental that was being used as one of them old folks assisted living house. It has cause quite a ruckus in the community and I doubt they were able to show it. Nevermind what it must look like inside.
It’s a 1800 sq sq foot, 4 bedroom, 2 bath house and the owners are (were) cheap. There’s a small, illegal “second story” built into the attic.. you can see the window over the front door.
I would consider this place an outlier as this would be the 1988 price.