We are linked today at Patrick.net. We are at the top of his daily list, so we should have big traffic today, particularly on that thread.
Posted by E on 09/03/09 at 04:25 AM
Seems to be Pink Floyd week here at IHB…perhaps a good song (lyric wise) for people seeking loan modifications would be ‘Mother’.
Posted by Freetrader on 09/03/09 at 04:45 AM
Apparently Irvine is no longer the Seventh Circle of Dante’s Real Estate Hell; it is now the Dark Side of the Moon.
Thinking about this little condo makes me depressed. Probably no HELOC abuse since they had to pay almost $400k for it (a shitty one bedroom!) three years ago. Rational decision by an underwater buyer, or a poor schmuck who lost his job and got kicked out? Most likely the former, which means I’m just getting soft in my old age.
Posted by MalibuRenter on 09/03/09 at 04:50 AM
Malibu, Calabasas, and Agoura have some serious rollbacks, many of which have shown up in the past two months. There is an oceanview 4 br 3ba foreclosure with a minimum bid under $700k coming up soon.
I am also seeing 2002 and prior rollbacks. Some of these are from knifecatchers. Those properties were purchased 2008 or 2009 and are now being sold for less than they paid.
Posted by asda on 09/03/09 at 06:22 AM
since when “lots of privacy” applies to apt. room?
Posted by Will on 09/03/09 at 06:31 AM
IrvineRenter-
Wouldn’t this be at below rental parity now? I can’t believe someone doesn’t buy it pronto.
It’s depressing to think of someone paying over $300K for this…
With our low interest rates, and the high rents someone could obtain in this location, it is almost certainly below rental parity. Of course, it needs to fall about 25% below rental parity to be a good rental investment. That is the fate of most of the one-bedroom condos in Irvine and surrounding areas.
Posted by dafox on 09/03/09 at 06:52 AM
speaking of yesterdays’ thread, I got to thinking about your assumption of a 12mo timeline from NOD to REO.
that *used* to be the case, and was very ‘trackable’: OC NOD vs FC - 12mo shift
Note that is *already* shifted 12mo.
From how I read this chart, we’re at minimuma 20 month delay from NOD to REO. If the cure rate is under 10%, that red line should track pretty close to the blue line as it did until last years SB1137.
When the red line jumps up to 2000+ neighborhood, that’ll give us our definitive answer of the ‘new’ timeline.
If the line jumps up this Nov, that’d be a 24 month delay timeline. This is where I personally believe we are.
Pink Floyd’s Wish You Were Here is perfect in my estimation.
The lyrics “did you exchange your walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage?” seems to tell us where we are today not only as a region, but a state and country as well.
Trying to stay optimistic…
Chuck Ponzi
Posted by jimfromJaxFla on 09/03/09 at 07:35 AM
WOW!!! I’m still feeling the impact from yesterday’s Blog…
I’m still calling for 1998 prices. The knife catchers continue to get bloodied and we still haven’t run out of Koolaid YET !!!
As for condos.. As I understand, Starting in Oct, FHA will no longer fund Condos where existing FHA financing exceeds 30%. Retroactive… Done!! GOT CASH ?!!
From FHA website letter Dated June 12…
• FHA Concentration
a. Projects consisting of three or less units will have no more than one unit encumbered with FHA insurance.
b. Projects consisting of four or more units will have no more than 30 percent of the total units encumbered with FHA insurance.
• Reserve Study - a current reserve study must be performed to assure that adequate funds are available for the funding of capital expenditures and maintenance. A current reserve study must be no more than 12 months old – if recent events or market conditions have affected the finished condition of the property that information must be included. When reviewing the reserve study, consideration must be given to items that have been replaced after the time that the reserve study was completed.
Posted by thrifty on 09/03/09 at 09:26 AM
Irvine Renter:
Thanks for the new calculator. Is there also a calculator for investment rentals like the one at the bottom of the old calculator - have I overlooked it?
Posted by sl on 09/03/09 at 09:30 AM
HOA $392! Guard gated community could be less than that!
No, you haven’t missed it. I need to refine my spreadsheet for investors and convert it to the Editgrid format so I can put it on the site. It will happen… priorities…
Posted by Jennifer on 09/03/09 at 10:16 AM
This is the first condo I’ve seen that I’d actually buy. Is it worth $200K? Certainly worth more than some of those dirty, white stucco 80s condos that have been profiled here for the same price. Nice unit.
Posted by diulei on 09/03/09 at 11:08 AM
Someone paid nearly $400k for that? Ouch.
Posted by Modguy on 09/03/09 at 11:10 AM
Wow, I’m more bearish than I thought… Because even if I was a young/single, I would not buy at this price!
I didn’t use IR more complex rent/own calculator, but just a simplified approach:
- mortgage (80LTV) at 5.25% about $900
- HOA $392
- Taxes about $200/mo.
- Condo insurance/maintainance ?
So, about $1500/mo with little tax benefit (at that income), AND I’ve got to tie-up $40,000 (downpayment) for how long?
I’ve owned 4 homes in the past 10 years or so, but now I rent. I just don’t see the point in buying even now - even at these prices! I sure you could rent a nice IAC for that…
One intangible: on the one hand you’re free to move from a rental whenever (a good feeling these days), on the other hand you can be TOLD to move too! Not sure if ownership is worth the premium for that reason alone.
Posted by MalibuRenter on 09/03/09 at 11:34 AM
I’m calling for a bottom at 1996 prices. Until late last year, I thought the bottom would be 1998 prices.
Late last year, I started saying 2009=2002 and 2010=1996.
The 2009=2002 looks to be on schedule. With enough foreclosure moratoria and incentives, 1996 prices might arrive in 2011.
Posted by biscuitninja on 09/03/09 at 11:46 AM
From above… not quite. Rental parity would probably be around $180 psqft. But that’s just a rough and ugly guess. I’m shooting for $160 for cash flow, but i’m used to putting down something like 30% just for peace of mind.
Anyways good luck
-bix
Posted by jack donovan on 09/03/09 at 11:53 AM
Very familiar with the Metropolitan. Anyone who knew of it’s history would’ve never bought there.
Bought there in 1992. Builder did a poor job. Many liens and lawsuits. It was one of the first Irvine developments to require certain amounts set aside for low income people. Building one, this unit sold out. Bldg. 2 mostly sold out. Bldg.3 converted completely to rentals. Many problems with plumbing and roof. We tried to sell in 1996. No interest. We finally walked away and lost 40K. Think we paid about 180K for same unit one floor lower.
The place is not worth even 199k. Add taxes, HOA, etc. All these years later, it is still a loser!
Posted by gld42 on 09/03/09 at 12:13 PM
In Irvine
2009=2004
Posted by Renter too on 09/03/09 at 12:15 PM
I think the Metropolitan is run down. Just go and take a look. Not well maintained, more a jungle than a community. And all that for $400 HOA. What they have though is a guard 24/7 at the gate…
Posted by SD Kate on 09/03/09 at 12:20 PM
I don’t think I’d ever buy a one bedroom apt/condo unless it was in the downtown of a major city…
I finally got my eviction notice, so I thought I’d pop over and update. There’s a lot of talk about timelines, so I thought I’d offer up mine…
8/08 Made my last mortgage payment on first and second. (My husband moved out at the end of the month.) I called my mortgage company towards the end of the month to let them know I couldn’t make any more payments, and see if I could get a work out. They told me to wait until I missed my first payment.
9/08: first missed payment. (much paperwork and calls back and forth ensue for the next 3 months)
12/08: Got my notice of Default (pretty much as soon as I was 90 days late)
12/08-5/09 Got some other notices, I don’t remember the names, and don’t have them here to refer to. I did get all the legally required notices. And at least 5 different “we want to help you keep your house!” letters, which I submitted the paperwork as required, NEVER once got a written response.
5/09: Got my notice of auction as 5/22/09.
6/09-8/09 Auction date passed, no word. Still get “we want to help you keep your house!” letters, which I give to the attorney.
8/27/09 The day after I sign my bankruptcy paperwork, I get my eviction notice. They’d sold my house on 8/25/09. Thankfully the attorney hadn’t filed. I get offered $1500 to be out 9/15. I counter with $2500 to be out 9/8. They say no to the money, but offer more time. I take the original offer, as I just want to be done.
So it took over a year for me since my first missed payment to be kicked out. And I didn’t hardly resist. If I’d been more diligent with ‘trying to do a workout’, I know I could have dragged this out longer. But I knew without an almost 50% reduction in principal, there was no way I could afford it alone. It’ll be interesting to see how long it takes them to get it on the market.
Posted by Rocker on 09/03/09 at 12:41 PM
You should take your story to the forums, otherwise is going to be washed away as days go by and IrvineRenter keeps adding more posts, Zovall, IrvineRenter, can you take care of this?
There are some great posts in the blog, that I’d like them converted into a thread in the forums, there you have a suggestion for your blog: have some “editor’s selection” posts converted in forums threads, put them in a different category of your forums: editor’s selection, just thinking.
Posted by Sam on 09/03/09 at 12:42 PM
WOW!!! 1996, that would be amazing. in Yorba Linda / Anaheim Hills area homes were in the range of 200-225K in 1996. In 2006 same homes were sold for 700K+. now they are in the range 550K+. If they can drop to 1996 levels by next year then that will be true rental parity and affordability. however, lenders should make 20% down a requirement, untill then there is no skin in the game for buyers and they will continue to walk out. FHA is providing loans now with 3% down and even offering to let people put down their “anticipated” fed tax credit towards the 3% down. and the problem continues….......
Posted by Craig on 09/03/09 at 01:13 PM
But why buy this apartment when you can rent one for about the same money, have the flexibility to move quickly when you change jobs, and don’t get stuck with any downside risk on the next leg of the housing crash?
Thank you for stopping by and updating us. I hope your new life will be full of joy and happiness. You have a clean slate. You can write on it what you wish.
There has been some discussion about how long the foreclosure process really takes because it has impact on the calculation of the total number of foreclosures. I used 12 months in the calculation, and your experience is on that schedule. I think the people who go into foreclosure over the next year will likely be in the queue longer. As you said, you could have dragged it out if you tried. Since you didn’t play the amend-pretend-send game, you processed faster than others.
Rocker’s idea of a forum thread about your story is a good one. I can probably do a search through our archives to find your other comments to assemble a background post. The forum members would really enjoy hearing your story first-hand. Would you be willing to tell your story there?
Posted by Barren_Irvine on 09/03/09 at 01:37 PM
Hi,
Look at this property. This is not in Irvine, but look the $/sq.ft. Finally we are seeing first hand “the seventh circle of real estate hell” in action…
Sure. One thing that I was looking for during the whole process, is a first hand account of how long it takes! I’d love to get it out there for others in the same position.
17232 Santa Cruz Ct
Yorba Linda, CA 92886
Sold For: $240,909 (06/25/2009)
Aug 24, 2004 Sold $881,000
Posted by phil on 09/03/09 at 04:45 PM
Short sale, so I’m not sure we can trust it.
Posted by panda bear on 09/03/09 at 07:29 PM
It’s more of a question than comment. Any help is greatly appreciated! I know someone that is currently list their condo as a short sale, and at the same time purchasing another house and in closing process. They stop making payment on their condo since beginning of 2009, they got NOD in July 09, and their credit hasn’t been hit. Would the bank find out later on? If they do find out, what would they do? What would happen?
Posted by LC on 09/03/09 at 08:27 PM
WHOA $392! He he he…
Posted by xoneinax on 09/04/09 at 08:02 AM
Why use a Short Sale for comparison ?
Or are Newport Skipper and Robert LarsenUSC right ? There is not enough Irvine inventory to find a straight REO sale in this condo complex at this price point.
Posted by Jim on 09/04/09 at 09:30 AM
I’m calling to a return to 1976 prices. If your’re going to set a price, who cares how much it costs!
Posted by Talyssa on 09/04/09 at 09:54 AM
Heh, the zillow estimate on that one is from 300k to 1 million. You’d think they’d have a few lines of code that flag anything that comes up with a 700k spread as “Sorry, unable to provide estimate.”
Posted by IrvineRenter on 09/03/09 at 06:46 AM
We are linked today at Patrick.net. We are at the top of his daily list, so we should have big traffic today, particularly on that thread.
Posted by E on 09/03/09 at 04:25 AM
Seems to be Pink Floyd week here at IHB…perhaps a good song (lyric wise) for people seeking loan modifications would be ‘Mother’.
Posted by Freetrader on 09/03/09 at 04:45 AM
Apparently Irvine is no longer the Seventh Circle of Dante’s Real Estate Hell; it is now the Dark Side of the Moon.
Thinking about this little condo makes me depressed. Probably no HELOC abuse since they had to pay almost $400k for it (a shitty one bedroom!) three years ago. Rational decision by an underwater buyer, or a poor schmuck who lost his job and got kicked out? Most likely the former, which means I’m just getting soft in my old age.
Posted by MalibuRenter on 09/03/09 at 04:50 AM
Malibu, Calabasas, and Agoura have some serious rollbacks, many of which have shown up in the past two months. There is an oceanview 4 br 3ba foreclosure with a minimum bid under $700k coming up soon.
I am also seeing 2002 and prior rollbacks. Some of these are from knifecatchers. Those properties were purchased 2008 or 2009 and are now being sold for less than they paid.
Posted by asda on 09/03/09 at 06:22 AM
since when “lots of privacy” applies to apt. room?
Posted by Will on 09/03/09 at 06:31 AM
IrvineRenter-
Wouldn’t this be at below rental parity now? I can’t believe someone doesn’t buy it pronto.
It’s depressing to think of someone paying over $300K for this…
Posted by IrvineRenter on 09/03/09 at 06:43 AM
With our low interest rates, and the high rents someone could obtain in this location, it is almost certainly below rental parity. Of course, it needs to fall about 25% below rental parity to be a good rental investment. That is the fate of most of the one-bedroom condos in Irvine and surrounding areas.
Posted by dafox on 09/03/09 at 06:52 AM
speaking of yesterdays’ thread, I got to thinking about your assumption of a 12mo timeline from NOD to REO.
that *used* to be the case, and was very ‘trackable’:
OC NOD vs FC - 12mo shift
Note that is *already* shifted 12mo.
From how I read this chart, we’re at minimum a 20 month delay from NOD to REO. If the cure rate is under 10%, that red line should track pretty close to the blue line as it did until last years SB1137.
When the red line jumps up to 2000+ neighborhood, that’ll give us our definitive answer of the ‘new’ timeline.
If the line jumps up this Nov, that’d be a 24 month delay timeline. This is where I personally believe we are.
Posted by Chuck Ponzi on 09/03/09 at 07:22 AM
Pink Floyd’s Wish You Were Here is perfect in my estimation.
The lyrics “did you exchange your walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage?” seems to tell us where we are today not only as a region, but a state and country as well.
Trying to stay optimistic…
Chuck Ponzi
Posted by jimfromJaxFla on 09/03/09 at 07:35 AM
WOW!!! I’m still feeling the impact from yesterday’s Blog…
I’m still calling for 1998 prices. The knife catchers continue to get bloodied and we still haven’t run out of Koolaid YET !!!
As for condos.. As I understand, Starting in Oct, FHA will no longer fund Condos where existing FHA financing exceeds 30%. Retroactive… Done!! GOT CASH ?!!
From FHA website letter Dated June 12…
• FHA Concentration
a. Projects consisting of three or less units will have no more than one unit encumbered with FHA insurance.
b. Projects consisting of four or more units will have no more than 30 percent of the total units encumbered with FHA insurance.
• Reserve Study - a current reserve study must be performed to assure that adequate funds are available for the funding of capital expenditures and maintenance. A current reserve study must be no more than 12 months old – if recent events or market conditions have affected the finished condition of the property that information must be included. When reviewing the reserve study, consideration must be given to items that have been replaced after the time that the reserve study was completed.
Posted by thrifty on 09/03/09 at 09:26 AM
Irvine Renter:
Thanks for the new calculator. Is there also a calculator for investment rentals like the one at the bottom of the old calculator - have I overlooked it?
Posted by sl on 09/03/09 at 09:30 AM
HOA $392! Guard gated community could be less than that!
Posted by IrvineRenter on 09/03/09 at 09:38 AM
No, you haven’t missed it. I need to refine my spreadsheet for investors and convert it to the Editgrid format so I can put it on the site. It will happen… priorities…
Posted by Jennifer on 09/03/09 at 10:16 AM
This is the first condo I’ve seen that I’d actually buy. Is it worth $200K? Certainly worth more than some of those dirty, white stucco 80s condos that have been profiled here for the same price. Nice unit.
Posted by diulei on 09/03/09 at 11:08 AM
Someone paid nearly $400k for that? Ouch.
Posted by Modguy on 09/03/09 at 11:10 AM
Wow, I’m more bearish than I thought… Because even if I was a young/single, I would not buy at this price!
I didn’t use IR more complex rent/own calculator, but just a simplified approach:
- mortgage (80LTV) at 5.25% about $900
- HOA $392
- Taxes about $200/mo.
- Condo insurance/maintainance ?
So, about $1500/mo with little tax benefit (at that income), AND I’ve got to tie-up $40,000 (downpayment) for how long?
I’ve owned 4 homes in the past 10 years or so, but now I rent. I just don’t see the point in buying even now - even at these prices! I sure you could rent a nice IAC for that…
One intangible: on the one hand you’re free to move from a rental whenever (a good feeling these days), on the other hand you can be TOLD to move too! Not sure if ownership is worth the premium for that reason alone.
Posted by MalibuRenter on 09/03/09 at 11:34 AM
I’m calling for a bottom at 1996 prices. Until late last year, I thought the bottom would be 1998 prices.
Late last year, I started saying 2009=2002 and 2010=1996.
The 2009=2002 looks to be on schedule. With enough foreclosure moratoria and incentives, 1996 prices might arrive in 2011.
Posted by biscuitninja on 09/03/09 at 11:46 AM
From above… not quite. Rental parity would probably be around $180 psqft. But that’s just a rough and ugly guess. I’m shooting for $160 for cash flow, but i’m used to putting down something like 30% just for peace of mind.
Anyways good luck
-bix
Posted by jack donovan on 09/03/09 at 11:53 AM
Very familiar with the Metropolitan. Anyone who knew of it’s history would’ve never bought there.
Bought there in 1992. Builder did a poor job. Many liens and lawsuits. It was one of the first Irvine developments to require certain amounts set aside for low income people. Building one, this unit sold out. Bldg. 2 mostly sold out. Bldg.3 converted completely to rentals. Many problems with plumbing and roof. We tried to sell in 1996. No interest. We finally walked away and lost 40K. Think we paid about 180K for same unit one floor lower.
The place is not worth even 199k. Add taxes, HOA, etc. All these years later, it is still a loser!
Posted by gld42 on 09/03/09 at 12:13 PM
In Irvine
2009=2004
Posted by Renter too on 09/03/09 at 12:15 PM
I think the Metropolitan is run down. Just go and take a look. Not well maintained, more a jungle than a community. And all that for $400 HOA. What they have though is a guard 24/7 at the gate…
Posted by SD Kate on 09/03/09 at 12:20 PM
I don’t think I’d ever buy a one bedroom apt/condo unless it was in the downtown of a major city…
I finally got my eviction notice, so I thought I’d pop over and update. There’s a lot of talk about timelines, so I thought I’d offer up mine…
8/08 Made my last mortgage payment on first and second. (My husband moved out at the end of the month.) I called my mortgage company towards the end of the month to let them know I couldn’t make any more payments, and see if I could get a work out. They told me to wait until I missed my first payment.
9/08: first missed payment. (much paperwork and calls back and forth ensue for the next 3 months)
12/08: Got my notice of Default (pretty much as soon as I was 90 days late)
12/08-5/09 Got some other notices, I don’t remember the names, and don’t have them here to refer to. I did get all the legally required notices. And at least 5 different “we want to help you keep your house!” letters, which I submitted the paperwork as required, NEVER once got a written response.
5/09: Got my notice of auction as 5/22/09.
6/09-8/09 Auction date passed, no word. Still get “we want to help you keep your house!” letters, which I give to the attorney.
8/27/09 The day after I sign my bankruptcy paperwork, I get my eviction notice. They’d sold my house on 8/25/09. Thankfully the attorney hadn’t filed. I get offered $1500 to be out 9/15. I counter with $2500 to be out 9/8. They say no to the money, but offer more time. I take the original offer, as I just want to be done.
So it took over a year for me since my first missed payment to be kicked out. And I didn’t hardly resist. If I’d been more diligent with ‘trying to do a workout’, I know I could have dragged this out longer. But I knew without an almost 50% reduction in principal, there was no way I could afford it alone. It’ll be interesting to see how long it takes them to get it on the market.
Posted by Rocker on 09/03/09 at 12:41 PM
You should take your story to the forums, otherwise is going to be washed away as days go by and IrvineRenter keeps adding more posts, Zovall, IrvineRenter, can you take care of this?
There are some great posts in the blog, that I’d like them converted into a thread in the forums, there you have a suggestion for your blog: have some “editor’s selection” posts converted in forums threads, put them in a different category of your forums: editor’s selection, just thinking.
Posted by Sam on 09/03/09 at 12:42 PM
WOW!!! 1996, that would be amazing. in Yorba Linda / Anaheim Hills area homes were in the range of 200-225K in 1996. In 2006 same homes were sold for 700K+. now they are in the range 550K+. If they can drop to 1996 levels by next year then that will be true rental parity and affordability. however, lenders should make 20% down a requirement, untill then there is no skin in the game for buyers and they will continue to walk out. FHA is providing loans now with 3% down and even offering to let people put down their “anticipated” fed tax credit towards the 3% down. and the problem continues….......
Posted by Craig on 09/03/09 at 01:13 PM
But why buy this apartment when you can rent one for about the same money, have the flexibility to move quickly when you change jobs, and don’t get stuck with any downside risk on the next leg of the housing crash?
Posted by IrvineRenter on 09/03/09 at 01:14 PM
SD Kate,
Thank you for stopping by and updating us. I hope your new life will be full of joy and happiness. You have a clean slate. You can write on it what you wish.
There has been some discussion about how long the foreclosure process really takes because it has impact on the calculation of the total number of foreclosures. I used 12 months in the calculation, and your experience is on that schedule. I think the people who go into foreclosure over the next year will likely be in the queue longer. As you said, you could have dragged it out if you tried. Since you didn’t play the amend-pretend-send game, you processed faster than others.
Rocker’s idea of a forum thread about your story is a good one. I can probably do a search through our archives to find your other comments to assemble a background post. The forum members would really enjoy hearing your story first-hand. Would you be willing to tell your story there?
Posted by Barren_Irvine on 09/03/09 at 01:37 PM
Hi,
Look at this property. This is not in Irvine, but look the $/sq.ft. Finally we are seeing first hand “the seventh circle of real estate hell” in action…
Mission Viejo $181 per sq. ft.
Posted by dafox on 09/03/09 at 02:51 PM
hey look at that. inflation and rate adjusted from both 90’s sales to be just about spot on!
simple inflation & rate calculator
Posted by MalibuRenter on 09/03/09 at 02:52 PM
The year isn’t over
Posted by SD Kate on 09/03/09 at 02:54 PM
Sure. One thing that I was looking for during the whole process, is a first hand account of how long it takes! I’d love to get it out there for others in the same position.
Posted by MalibuRenter on 09/03/09 at 02:54 PM
You mean like this house?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Yorba-Linda/17232-Santa-Cruz-Ct-92886/home/5924705
17232 Santa Cruz Ct
Yorba Linda, CA 92886
Sold For: $240,909 (06/25/2009)
Aug 24, 2004 Sold $881,000
Posted by phil on 09/03/09 at 04:45 PM
Short sale, so I’m not sure we can trust it.
Posted by panda bear on 09/03/09 at 07:29 PM
It’s more of a question than comment. Any help is greatly appreciated! I know someone that is currently list their condo as a short sale, and at the same time purchasing another house and in closing process. They stop making payment on their condo since beginning of 2009, they got NOD in July 09, and their credit hasn’t been hit. Would the bank find out later on? If they do find out, what would they do? What would happen?
Posted by LC on 09/03/09 at 08:27 PM
WHOA $392! He he he…
Posted by xoneinax on 09/04/09 at 08:02 AM
Why use a Short Sale for comparison ?
Or are Newport Skipper and Robert LarsenUSC right ? There is not enough Irvine inventory to find a straight REO sale in this condo complex at this price point.
Posted by Jim on 09/04/09 at 09:30 AM
I’m calling to a return to 1976 prices. If your’re going to set a price, who cares how much it costs!
Posted by Talyssa on 09/04/09 at 09:54 AM
Heh, the zillow estimate on that one is from 300k to 1 million. You’d think they’d have a few lines of code that flag anything that comes up with a 700k spread as “Sorry, unable to provide estimate.”