“I have said a number of times that the high end is going to crash very hard—in some places 65% or more (particularly near the beach). I stand behind that prediction. It isn’t a matter of “if” it is just a matter of “when.”

I currently think 65-70% off.  That’s been my opinion since Oct last year.  JPMorgan is catching up.  They are now at 60% off.

Oh, and don’t forget my prediction of free.  Starting in the central valley and the high desert, there will be a few thousand homes sold for less than $1000.  At those prices, the sellers (banks mostly) will be losing money.  However, if they kept the homes, they would accumulate taxes and fines.

Reminder: it’s possible for a property to have negative value.  This applies to raw land, homes, and commercial properties.  It’s usually a result of taxes, HOA dues, security cost, or environmental cleanup.

I know people have things going on in their lives that force them to sell a house (job loss/transfer, divorce, etc.) but if these houses are so great, as the descriptions say they are, then why would these people ever want to leave, esp. after owning the house for such a short time?  I mean, after reading the descriptions, you’d think they were in Eden…

MalibuRenter, I couldn’t agree more about homes with negative values.  Case in point these lovely Detroit area estates:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/08/real_estate/thousand_dollar_homes/index.htm?postversion=2009010806

New neighborhoods should not have that many homes for resale, particularly at the high end. People buy blue-chip properties like these to live in for 20+ years. In a normal real estate market, there are rarely any resales until a community ages several years. Not so here in Irvine.

A great post at Calculated Risk on the joy of being a floplord:

The Accidental Slumlord

The Accidental Slumlord: Newsweek story

Krugman calls Mish a b*tch for claiming he called for the housing bubble.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/and-i-was-on-the-grassy-knoll-too/

I’ve mentioned this before but I think unemployment is the biggest factor here. So what if someone has over $900k in mortgage. As long as the person/family didn’t do MEW and there’s no hard reset/recast on the home, the person can pay as long as the phantom belief of inflated pricing still exist in Irvine.

Remember, ZIRP really helped a lot of mortgage holders, even ARM holders as of today. Looking back at ‘89-‘92 pricing and you’ll see why there were an immediate impact on housing prices (no ZIRP) relative to a milder recession compared with this one. As a matter of fact, Greenspan didn’t help Bush Sr. at all by lowering interest rates. Remember the 15 or 30 years conforming loan interest rates back then?

So Cal had a hard hit on employment as defense contractors were dropping like flies back in the early 90s. This further exacerbated the housing problem back then. Frankly, this needs to happen today to counter the ZIRP support so that Irvine and the rest of the So Cal communities take a shit dump on housing prices. Else, we’re only blowing smokes here as ZIRP countered the 10%+ unemployment figure from having housing prices slip further.

I say 20%+ would do the trick.

I think overly paid employment may be a large factor.

Story time: during the .com bubble I was a sysadmin for a software company. We had a ‘PHP Programmer’ making 75k/yr. The boss asked for some basic web stuff and I suggested we use <a >cookies</a>.

I had to show the programmer how to use PHP to set cookies. I kid you not, even the most basic, junior programmers making 30k/yr can do this. This ‘programmer’ had no idea. Her salary was WAY over inflated.

I believe there have been a LOT of WAY over paid people in the past ~5yrs and they still think they’re worth that. Loan officers and RE agents are the worst (I have more anecdotal evidence of this), but not the only ones. Many ‘managers’ that were making 6 figures dont have the skills to make 60k now.

He was an intentional slumlord.  Nothing accidential here.  He bought the property to rent it out, not to live in it or flip it and then rent it out when he couldn’t sell it.  Well, mainly he bought it so he could have a story for his book.

$75k is a joke for engineer/programmer in the Bay Area unless you work for Google. Try 6 figures.

Talk about wwwwaaaayyyy overinflated.

BTW, that was a reference to the BA and in no way refute your overly paid employment factor. As a matter of fact, I fully agree with you.

Can anyone please explain to me?
I follow the area of north Irvine for quite a while. In “Northwood point” there are quite a few listings over 1,000,000 (4-5 BR) and the amazing point is the last sale there - Canyonwood 20 for 1,400,000 !!!!  Will the prices really come down one day?  I will appreciate your opinions.

Love the Cribs video with Seth Green - thanks for posting!!

Never.  Irvine is a special butterfly with magical powers allowing it to never to be deflowered by, say, that shithole Villages of Columbus.

My realtor told me that there are only 321 homes on the market where I am, compared to 1600 last year at this time.

One day I shall find the inventory.

I will seek the brown lawns to find the REO.

For those interested in perspective regarding the media hype surrounding increased housing starts in May, the link below graphing housing starts annually since 1959 provides it:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_alerts/fundamental_alert/US_Housing_Starts_Recover_Sharply_1245157656259.html

In case you all missed it, the Recession is over.!! I know, I missed it too.. see
The Recession Is Over, Schwab’s Sonders Says on Yahoo news…  Also on Yahoo,
Jeff Matthews, founder of Ram Partners takes a variant view: “What’s happening in the real world is this: the housing market is recovering, fast,” the fund manager recently wrote on his blog.
Sounds like they have Clients who have stock to sell…  Watch for a Market correction!!!! 
And Green Shoots..  I’m sick of hearing this. Is anyone else??..
Best WTF Day EVER!!!

Well, this article talks about Australia but, let’s face it, the Chinese are coming to Irvine in droves (the Koreans made a good run at it but now they are money constrained just like the U.S. - if you think I jest, take a walk around Quail Hell, uh, I mean Hill).  So, no, the prices won’t be coming down.  The allure of Irvine is just too strong for East Asians in general - not too sure why since I’m one and I can take Irvine or leave it.  Be ready to change the name of Irvine to Little Beijing.

http://www.chinastakes.com/2009/6/Investors-Looking-at-Overseas-Properties-Prompted-by-Low-Prices-Bubbly-Domestic-Market.html

They would never need to do this, but if the impossible were theoretically to happen, the Irvine Company would preserve a floor under all prices by refusing to budge on rents. The laws of economics do not apply to the Irvine Company, which has infinite cash reserves, and will keep rental parity so high that sale prices will never drop. They are willing to keep units empty for several thousand years, if necessary.

Rest assured, Irvine will never surrender. The residents will always enjoy the prices they deserve.

Yes, the foreign buyers will save us. It never fails. That is why housing prices never go down, particularly in this recession, which is localized to the United States, and cannot possibly affect the fortunes of any foreign citizen.

Keep in mind that this would essentially mean as much pain in the high-end coastal properties as we have had in the inland areas, percentage-wise.

This would mean we are only about half-way through by my reckoning.

It is amazing to me that so many bubble bloggers have said the same thing and professionals are now agreeing; yet if you look around, most in the real estate world believes we already bottomed this spring and are on our way back up.

“Buy now or be priced out forever” is gaining a foothold.  I already see many people buying houses they still cannot afford for fear of missing the train.  One small furlough, sickness, job loss, or move will destroy them financially.  Is this any way to live?  Under constant threat of financial harm?

I see many, many more divorces happening.  Sad, but true.

Chuck Ponzi

Great graph.  That’s change you can believe in!

re: the defense contractor thing in the 90’s

Sometimes I wonder about the repeatability of that scenario given the Obama administrations efforts to reform the financial industry (ie. meaning less profits) and the health car/health care insurance industry (ie. again meaning less profits) as Irvine seems to have a lot of finance/healthcare industry stuff going on.

Actually, IAC is already coming down on rents
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5055/

This observation has been commented on routinely.  It’s true there are some sales happening at WTF pricing, but there are many more homes that never sell.  As IR and others have stated, it’s essentially a lottery.

NP asking prices have not dropped much and some would say they are immune to pricing pressures because their age (1997) pre-dates the housing boom.  However, there will be no escaping the external downward pricing pressures coming from nearby communities in and around Irvine.  Specifically, Woodbury and Northwood II will be leveled by the time this is all over (we are all still guessing when that will be due to the games being played by banks/govt, but the Option ARM recasts are starting to occur as we speak), not to mention the rest of OC and IE.  Sure, you always pay a premium to live in the nicer areas, but that premium is still on top of nearby pricing.  If the nearby areas take a hit, the base goes down thereby lowering prices in the nicer areas.  Iow, the premium doesn’t magically grow to cover the drop in base price (unless gold were suddenly found in all Irvine backyards).

It may be hard to see it now when it hasn’t happened yet, but the bubble affected Irvine just as much (or more) as other areas.  If you look around at other high end areas, especially those in CA such as La Jolla and cities in Marin county, it is already starting to happen.  Lots of articles discussing it can be found all over the internet (I use patrick.net to find them, but there are other sites).

Remember, housing is sticky on the way down.  It takes foreclosures to grease the wheels and the banks (with the government’s help) are dragging their feet to avoid recognizing the loss.  But unemployment and Option ARM recasts will overwhelm them, eventually triggering the price drops we have been predicting.

You are not alone IR.

“The biggest price declines are likely to occur in the New York and Orange County, California, metropolitan areas, Deutsche Bank said. “

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=adWiFj4Rm1ag

Laugh all you want, but right now it is very real.  There are people in Asia right now, looking at Irvine real estate thinking that with the drop in prices, the low interest rates, and the weakening of the dollar, this is a good time to buy for a long term investment.

We have a friend who will be flying in from China next week to look over properties.  Despite our input, they are seriously freaked out that if they don’t buy now they’ll be priced out forever.  Seems like a large number of people they know have already flown in and bought properties in Irvine in the past year, engaging in bidding wars to get something, anything, in Irvine before “the market goes up again.”

These are not sovereign wealth funds, or multi-millionaires who are looking for places to stash their extra cash; these are middle class asians who are willing to stretch their budgets to make the Irvine purchase because they think real estate is a good long-term investment, who are also looking down the road at where to send their children to school if they are not academically competitive in their own countries.

I was talking to a good freind of mine the other day who has been in the Southern California real estate business for 25 years. As a matter of fact everyone in her family is second generation agents, brokers, title agents and escrow officers. They have owned and still own several title and escrow companies her in the OC.

She is a very smart person but even they were intoxicated by the Kool Aid. She did not understand why I did not want to buy a house in 95,95,97…..I explained to her my belief that prices would crater and I would be able to get a 50% discount if I waited a few years…..

She did not agree. Her opinion was house may drop 15% at the most and if you stayed in the home long enough….well you know the rest.

Fast forward to last week…..My wife and I will be house hunting by the end of the year and my freind now told me that there are more foreclosures waiting to hit the market now then there were when sub price blew up.

This of course is consistant with what we have all been preaching. Sub prime was bad but it was mainly contained to lower end housing. It is the Alt-A and option ARM resets that are going to be the killer.

Her company has been doing the escrows on a lot of the auction homes so I assume she knows of what she speaks, plus she has fully transfomred from a perma-bull.

Sounds like the Chinese are the most gullible type of sheeple out there if that’s the case.  haha

Actually, 95-97 would not have been a bad time to buy a house. Prices didn’t reach parity with 1990 until about 99-2000 depending on where you were. If current prices drop to 99-2000 levels you would still be ahead of the game. For potential buyers it would be very comforting to hear someone with a track record predict that dropping prices have a better than even chance of overshooting 1999. But it’s hard to believe that will happen unless the economy tanks significantly further and stays that way for at least another 1-2 years - and that would be a lot of pain for a lot of people.

They will never drop below 20X median household income.

Of course, the nicer, larger houses in Newport, Tustin or Villa Park are going to return to 5X mhhi, as they were in the mid-90s, so you will have a choice to make.

FCB’s FTW!  er, not.

Do you mean 95,95,97 or 2005-2007?

It’s either a typo…..or something else.

Didn’t the Japanese do this right before something bad happened to them?

I was responding to the realtor’s advice to buy in mid 90’s:
“She is a very smart person but even they were intoxicated by the Kool Aid. She did not understand why I did not want to buy a house in 95,95,97…”
The rest addressed the currently deteriorating situation.

Irvine will be the next San Gabriel, Monterey Park, Rowland Heights of Orange County.  Actually it already is.  If you look at where the rich Asians are concentrated in OC, it is Irvine.  Sure you have Little Saigon near Garbage Grove, but Irvine is the next big spurt area for wealthy Chinese.

The Chinese need to turn their RMB’s into other currencies because they don’t have 100% trust in their own government.  Irvine realestate is a hot investment in China.  I expect they will keep prices relatively higher than other areas.

Irvine buyers are competing with FCB’s, and a lot of them read this blog, and are also waiting.

But with all of the turmoil in CA, it isn’t really that hard to believe that 1999 is completely impossible.  Palmdale is at 1989 levels.  What so different today that 1999 prices are out of the question?

I think 99-2000 levels are distinctly possible. Overshooting them is unlikely, imo. 
I’d have to know the % difference in Palmdale between 89 and 99 prices to intelligently discuss them vs. Irvine. However, I’d guess it would be like discussing the houses in parts of Detroit that are selling for a few thousand dollars vs those along the lake and Grosse Pointe - again, just a guess.

That video was so funny.

Yep, They are offering me about a $13% discount off my current rent, and that is with a 9 mo term.  People just keep moving out.

I heard the same thing on the radio yesterday (640)! UCLA’s top economists say that the recession is over and sunny skies are to come.

Truly laughable. I don’t need an economist telling me what the market place is like. I live the market. My businesses and the businesses I contract with on a daily basis continue to show me that the economy is getting worse. Businesses are losing accounts because money is getting tighter, consumers are spending less, people are losing their jobs, and our taxes are going up (thanks Sacramento) further reducing discretionary income.

You either can buy into all the media stories and wear your rosy glasses (like the seller of today’s featured property) or you can step into 2009 and join the new economic reality. Its your choice.

Yeah, they were the suckers that bought at the peak of the market in the late 80s.  If history repeats itself, the Chinese the next asian bagholders.

Thanks for your time and for being serious.
I keep on following like everyone else but I can’t see any reason for 1,4 milion sale on a 6000sft lot.(unless, as someone noted above) a gold-mine was found in the back yard.

Actually, her Koolaid infused advice from the mid 1990’s was quite good.

From 2001-now, not so much.

There are comp homes on my Aunts street in Palmdale that sold for $385K+ three years ago.

There is a home a block away that sold for $60K and one on her street that sold for $80K.

Detroit has been in a sideways slide for 20 years.  Palmdale did it in three.

on edit, I saw your comment.  I was refering to the original post with what I hope is a typo.

Lot Size:  4,277 Sq. Ft.  Bwahahahaha…

Palmdale $80k vs $385K; ratio about 1/5. That would put the nicer homes in Grosse Pointe and along the shore in the $50k price range. Let me know how many of those you find!

You make a good point, Chuck. This can be viewed as a seasonal bounce. You see the same thing every year during the busy home-buying summer season. Often prices are jacked-up before providing the deal-sealing “discount.”

It’s the threat of mortgage rates going up that will impact the RE market greatly—high cost of money is going to sink these prices faster than they can sell them—so the shift will change—cash will be king-

Google is low paying?

MalibuRenter,
As soon as you see CA property going for $1000, please, please email me.  I want some vacation land/house.
Newbie2008 in IR forum

As for the question on explaining the price of houses in CA, just think if banks gave 100% 4 year loans with negative amortization to by tulip bulb stock during that bubble.  That bulb would have been much bigger and longer with our current inovatative financing.

3x gross income is a good rule of thumb.

At least the second one has a good sized lot (10,293 Sq. Ft.).  It ain’t no estate though.  I should relink the 2+ acre estate I found in Riverside with three houses, a pool, parking for more than 20 cars, and a tennis court that sold for $350,000 or so.

So, welcome them! The more money they pump in, the less US taxpayer bailout to the banks. It may be irritating that knife-catchers slow the plummet or even fuel a “rebound” in the short term, but unless you are convinced that they will prop up prices indefinitely, they are just putting money back in to the economy and slowing the rate of fall.

Best post yet.  This is exactly why Irvine has not felt the housing pain.  I have access to title info and 90% of the buyers are Chinese.  These guys don’t need financing and usually buy all cash or with at least 50% down payment.  Compared to Beijing, Irvine homes prices are a bargain.  I am asian and Dundee is spot on about the Koreans.  Their economy is tied to the U.S. and can’t compete with China’s all mighty currency and buying power.  Irvine prices will not go any lower.  The floor is in.  UNFORTUNATELY!!

China is no Japan.  Also, the Chinese are not buying “trohphy” properties either and remember they are buying in a real estate recession and not during a real estate bubble like the Japanese.  Very different.

Sorry, but it is not going to happen.  There is too much foreign $$ coming into Irvine, especially from China.  You might have a better chance in Villa Park or Orange areas where the Chinese do not want to buy.  I am in the same situation like you; priced out by too much foreign $$.

But you just said that Irvine homes are essentially trophy properties to the Chinese.  So what if they are buying in a recession when prices are only down about 10-15% off the peak while other areas are 50%+ off the peak.  Keep telling yourself that the Chinese are smarter than the Japanese.  History has a funny way of repeating itself.  If the Chinese really think they are getting some great bargains buying at such high home price levels, more power to them because they will become the next asian bagholders.  Don’t tell me that Irvine home prices will magically rise or stay at current levels while other surrounding cities see further price drops because it won’t happen.  If Irvine is so special, why are rental prices on the slide?  I thought IAC was immune to the economic conditions.

Yes, I just negotiated about 5% decrease with IAC for 10 month lease at Bordeaux in Newport Coast.

Get real AJ. Do you really expect us to believe that? You sound like a desperate shrilltor. Gee now the chinese can start another bubble in Irvine amongst themselves. Frickin Idiot.

Too bad Realtard doesn’t love the space bar (or hyphen, to pick nits) as much as the caps lock.  Just goes to show how unreadable all caps are, when you can’t see that you left out half a dozen spaces after commas.

AJ:
I remember looking at condos in Hawaii in the past at a time when a large number of Japanese buyers were in the market also because interest rates in Japan on loans were very low (1% or thereabouts). The realtor we dealt with mentioned that sellers were ecstatic because the Japanese rarely offered less than the asking price for cultural reasons. The realtors didn’t seem anxious to alter the situation. Those buyers later suffered greatly in the next downturn.
I would be very careful about buying in a country other than my own unless I was as familiar with the real estate market there as in my own country.

“…swain neck stainless faucet, central vacumn system…”

Swain neck?

And are central vacua really that desirable?  My parents’ house has one and it’s such a pain to lug aroung the hose that they just use a conventional electric upright.

Agreed.  I don’t know how anyone could actually call a tract house on a small amount of land a “trophy property” no matter how nice it is inside.

You’re probably right about the top end.  There’s still air coming out.  Jumbo loans are difficult to get right now and buyers are skiddish.  But in San Diego anyway, the bubble bursting party is officially over for entry-level homes.  Time to take off the pointy hats.  We’re not seeing small overbids anymore.  It’s large overbids, all cash, short escrows.  Forget about low down payment FHA or VA loans.  The sellers are being way too selective for that.  And believe me, it’s not a good thing.  For buyers it’s worse than it was at the peak.  The banks and the bigshot REO listing agent rockstars have taken the reins.  Surely there must be a happy medium.  Seasonal?  I sure hope so.