Jingle bell, jingle bell, jingle bell rock
Jingle bells swing and jingle bells ring
Snowing and blowing up bushels of fun
Now the jingle hop has begun
Jingle bell, jingle bell, jingle bell rock
Jingle bells chime in jingle bell time
Dancing and prancing in Jingle Bell Square
In the frosty air.
What a bright time, it's the right time
To rock the night away
Jingle bell time is a swell time
To go gliding in a one-horse sleigh
Giddy-up jingle horse, pick up your feet
Jingle around the clock
Mix and a-mingle in the jingling feet
That's the jingle bell,
That's the jingle bell,
That's the jingle bell rock.
When I first started blogging about the housing debacle, some of the more bullish commenters would bristle when I suggested that a great many people refinanced all their equity out of their homes and would end up in foreclosure when prices went south. I have already profiled some pretty egregious HELOC and refi abuse on this blog, but today's listing sets a new standard.
First Mortgage $696,000
Second Mortgage $699,900
HELOC $436,700
Total Debt $1,832,600
Total Cash out $962,100
Beds: 5
Baths: 4
Sq. Ft.: 4,000
$/Sq. Ft.: $405
Lot Size: -
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Other
Year Built: 2002
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): Park or Green Belt
Area: Northpark
County: Orange
MLS#: S514550
Status: Active
On Redfin: 10 days
From Redfin, "Executive luxury home backed to tree-lined greenbelt, elegant wrought iron staircase-distressed hardwood flr entry, main flr bedroom/bath, huge kitchen w/ center island, granite, maple cabinets, butler's pantry, wine compartment, built-in media center, surround system, decorator paint, shutters, crown moulding, French doors, large upgraded master suite w/ extensive wardrobe organizers, backyard w/ built-in BBQ, fireplace, ref/sink, garage w/ epoxy finish, cabinetry, resort ass. amenities"
Resort ass? Is this the person you fool around with when you are on vacation?
.
.
This house was purchased 5 years ago, and these people have already taken out at least $525,400. If they have also maxed their HELOC, then they have taken out an unbelievable $962,100! That comes to $192,420 per year of additional spending money. If their house were a W2 employee, it would have been making over $300,000 a year to generate that kind of take-home income.
So how bad is the bank going to lose on this one? Assuming they maxed their HELOC, they get their asking price, and they pay a 6% commission, the lender will lose $310,928. For the lender's sake, I hope the owners have not tapped their HELOC.
Do you imagine these sellers think they are rich? After all, they probably make around $200K, and they have been spending as if they make $500K. Only rich people do that, right? As the housing bubble continues to deflate, we will all see who was pretending. As Warren Buffet said, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
I wonder how well they will adjust to the 50% drop in spending money and being cut off from credit after the short sale?
I am going to make a bold prediction: sales will improve in 92602, 92606 and 92620. After an 80% decline in sales, some improvement is nearly certain. Then again, sales could drop off to zero if sellers don't reduce their prices more...
Just in case you wanted to see just how crazy everyone got with interest-only and negative amortization loans.
Throw a dog a bone, I'll take it if I have to
Go real fast like there's somewhere we can get to
What's the use of standing right there on the edge if there ain't nowhere to fall
What's the use in hangin' on tight to the phone if nobody might call
Desperation
There's anger in frustration
Complicated words slippin' off of your tongue and ain't one of them the truth
I'm still desperate for you
Today's listing is the most desperate seller I have seen to date. They are actually giving away a car to their buyer. Next they will be offering a year of free massages with happy endings...
Price: $1,999,000
37 Crimson Rose
Irvine, CA 92603
Beds: 3
Baths: 3.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,900
$/Sq. Ft.: $689
Lot Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean, Spanish
Year Built: 2004
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): City Lights, Ocean, Panoramic
Area: Turtle Ridge
County: Orange
MLS#: S495046
Status: Active
On Redfin: 138 days
Unsold in 90+ days
From Redfin, "SPECIAL OFFER TO BUYER: BRAND NEW 2008 MERCEDES BENZ 'GL' SUV OR 'CLK' CONVERTIBLE WITH PURCHASE AT 'LISTING ASKING PRICE'. FORMER MODEL HOME with PANORAMIC CITY LIGHTS/OCEAN VIEWS!One of the BEST and highest view lots in The Summit at Turtle Ridge; Over $500K in designer upgrades; Provencial Style Home; Casita with Bath, custom hardwood flooring/wainscoating walls, faux paint, stone walls and stone flooring, spa-like master bath; covered loggia with outdoor fireplace."
.
.
From the land of WTF listings and denial we have the first signs of desperation: high-end style. What do you think about that?
When you see the Southern Cross
For the first time
You understand now
Why you came this way
'Cause the truth you might be runnin' from
Is so small.
But it's as big as the promise
The promise of a comin' day.
So I'm sailing for tomorrow
My dreams are a dyin'.
We don't have many properties on water in Irvine. There are two man-made lakes in Woodbridge, and there are some units on these lakes. When I saw the pictures for this unit, it got me thinking...
Anybody want to go sailing?
it's not far down to paradise
At least it's not for me
And if the wind is right you can sail away
And find tranquility
The canvas can do miracles
Just you wait and see
Believe me
It's not far to never never land
No reason to pretend
And if the wind is right you can find the joy
Of innocence again
The canvas can do miracles
Just you wait and see
Believe me
Sailing
Takes me away
To where I've always heard it could be
Just a dream and the wind to carry me
And soon I will be free
Would you like to feed the ducks off your patio? I think it would be great.
I like this complex. It isn't very practical if you have small children, but it looks peaceful, and the close proximity to water is always desirable.
Price: $748,600
20 Southwind
Irvine, CA 92614
Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,930
$/Sq. Ft.: $388
Lot Size: -
Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary/Modern
Year Built: 1983
Stories: Split Level
View(s): Lake, Has View, Water
Area: Woodbridge
County: Orange
MLS#: S510180
Status: Active
On Redfin: 18 days
Completely updated architechural waterfront beauty!Features include maple wood flooring in living rm, den/office, kitchen and dining room. Matching wide-blade plantation shtrs. New white kitchen cabinets, black Eurostone countertops, stainless steel appliances, stainless steel sinks. Recessed lights. Cust. living rm fireplace. Totally remodeled bathrms w/ cust. cabinets, pedestal sinks, custom flrs. Designer carpeting. Huge master w/ retreat & double-sided fireplace. Water views from all major rms!!
OK, we have a street named Southwind, we have the song southern cross, the artist Christopher Cross, and finally Christopher Cross's song Ride Like the Wind. We have come full circle...
Weekends are a bit different at the Irvine Housing Blog. We don't get as much traffic as during the week because everyone has a life, and hopefully, they are out living it on the weekend. We are. It is a good time to try out different things and see how people like it.
Today, you will probably think I am a realtor. Today's property I am profiling simply because I think it is beautiful. It is ridiculously priced, and it has been on the market a long time, but it is a beautiful home. I will probably never be in a position to own something like it, but it is nice to dream...
Price: $2,449,900
7 Meryton
Irvine, CA 92603
Beds: 5
Baths: 4.5
Sq. Ft.: 3,400
$/Sq. Ft.: $721
Lot Size: 0.41 acres
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Traditional
Year Built: 1995
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): Hills, Panoramic, Trees/Woods, Has View
Area: Turtle Rock
County: Orange
MLS#: S491216
Status: Active
On Redfin: 151 days
Unsold in 90+ days
Opportunity knocks! This elegant estate offers the ultimate in privacy and resort-like grounds. Situated on a cul-de-sac & w/ only one neighbor, this spectacular home showcases incomparable detailing & sophistication thruout. Perfect for entertaining, it even includes putting greens w/ 6 holes! Granite countertops in kitchen, powder & thruout master, custom wall color, sculpted carpeting & more. It's in a great location and is incredibly private. Move in for the holidays!
Opportunity knocks! An opportunity to overpay for real estate.
Actually, this house has a good lesson about sales and marketing. This house is well presented and it has everything someone could want in a home, and yet it isn't selling. THE PRICE IS TOO HIGH!!! It appears that all the marketing in the world cannot overcome a price tag that is simply too high.
Old days
Good times I remember
Fun days
Filled with simple pleasures
Drive-in movies
Comic books and blue jeans
Howdy doody
Baseball cards and birthdays
Take me back
To a world gone away
Memories
Seem like yesterday
Old days
Good times I remember
Gold days
Days Ill always treasure
Funny faces
Full of love and laughter
Funny places
Summer nights and streetcars
Take me back
To a world gone away
Boyhood memories
Seem like yesterday
I wrote this in Brio New World "Previous generations had a formula for a “normal,” happy life. You used to save your money until you had a 20% downpayment, then you bought a house, and if you had increases in income, you could move up to a nicer place. Home ownership was a symbol of success. It proved you could save to reach a goal; it proved you were responsible; it made you happy. It was also a ticket to financial security as your home equity would become a savings account you could use to fund your retirement when you downsized to smaller accommodations. These were the rules of old."
Today's property is an example of someone living by the old formula.
Beds: 4
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,101
$/Sq. Ft.: $380
Lot Size: 6,030 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1979
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: S457142
Status: Active
On Redfin: 407 days
Unsold in 90+ days
From Redfin, "HUGE CULDESAC LOT! Northwood charmer! Spacious home, well located, in quiet neighborhood. Downstairs den can easily be converted to 4th bedroom. Cathedral ceilings! New Appliances. Tons of storage space. Two fireplaces (Living Room & Master Bedroom). Walk-in closets in Master & guest rooms. Ceiling fans throughout. Over-size living area! Balcony off Master bedroom! Huge back and side yards with Gazebo style Jacuzzi! Close to shopping, schools, and freeways. NO MELLO ROOS AND NO ASSOCIATION FEES!!"
INTERMITTENT caps LOCK!
Exciting EXCLAMATIONS!!!
Tons of storage space? Mixing measures, weight and volume?
.
.
This is the quintessential example of an owner who does not need to sell. The house was purchased in 1979 for $112,500. There is a first mortgage for $62,400 that is probably nearly paid off. The owners have a mailing address in Grants Pass, Oregon which is likely where they are living in their retirement.
They have two choices:
They could rent this place for an easy $3,000 a month, or
They could sell the place and put the proceeds in the bank at 5%.
Surprisingly enough, either choice nets about the same income depending on the amount of capital gains taxes. It does make me wonder if they have a renter in the house now. You would think that if they decided to sell the place, they would lower the price to sell it immediately or take it off the market and get a renter in there. Sitting empty, this house makes them nothing.
If this were your retirement nest egg, what would you do?
Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,150
$/Sq. Ft.: $370
Lot Size: -
Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 1978
Stories: One Level
Area: Woodbridge
County: Orange
MLS#: S486749
Status: Active
On Redfin: 139 days
Unsold in 90+ days
From Redfin, "* * FANTASTIC BUY * * 3 BR 2 BA single level with HUGE backyard, come see the rose garden. Great Location. Everything has been upgraded, from the neutral tiled floors to the granite counters, kitchen cabinets & appliances. 3 Large bedrooms & 2 upgraded bathrooms also with granite & newer cabinets . Newer mirror closets with organizer. It is very lite and brite and definately a 10++ Newer water heater. Walk to all the fantastic amenities, pool, spa, park, tennis, basket & volleyball, schools & shopping."
HUGE backyard. It is a freakin' patio! Give me a break.
A 10++? Maybe on a scale from 1 to 100.
" lite and brite and definately" Three misspellings in 5 words, congratulations. I hope she is thankful for the word "and."
Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,110
$/Sq. Ft.: $386
Lot Size: -
Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 1972
Stories: Two Levels
Area: El Camino Real
County: Orange
MLS#: S495498
Status: Active
On Redfin: 78 days
From Redfin, "BEST PRICED & MOST REMODELLED UNIT ON THE MARKET. BRAZILIAN CHERRY WOOD FLOORS, RECESSED LIGHTING, REFURBISHED CABINETS, NEW APPLIANCES, MAYTAG STOVE, SCRAPED CEILINGS, NEW PAINT, BRAND NEW GORGEOUS DECORATIVE BATHROOM HAS TILES/BORDER ON WALLS & GRANITE SINK. SURROUND SYSTEM IN LIVING ROOM, MASTER WITH WALK IN CLOSET & CLOSET ORGANIZERS. SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM. EXTRA STORAGE OUTSIDE. BEAUTIFUL SLATE FLOORS IN LARGE BACK PATIO. OPEN FLOORPLAN. SEE THE VIRTUAL TOUR!! PRICE REDUCED"
WHY THE ALL CAPS? I find all caps to be very hard on my eyes. It is painful to read that description.
Are any of you impressed by Brazilian Cherry Wood floors? Sounds rare and exotic, doesn't it?
We did our first post on Irvine Sales Trends many months ago. Today's post includes the 2007 numbers through August. Although the charts are an improvement from the past, I still have a lot to learn from twist. Keep in mind that the data used to generate these charts comes from MLS.
We'll start with a look at # of sales by month from 1998-2007:
The 3 Month and 12 Month Moving Averages help indicate the trend. Next, we'll compare the data by year. I've create separate charts for 1998-2002 and 2003-2007 because it is a little messy with 10 data sets.
It looks like although SFR sales are about the same in 2007 when compared to 2006, Condo sales are definitely slower in 2007.
Now only if I had the median sales price data for Irvine for the last 9 years.
May 2007 saw the reasonably-well publicized departure of David Lereah as "Chief Economist" of the National Association of Realtors. To understate the point, Mr. Lereah has been the object of plenty of attention in the housing blog community. Most of the attention was negative, and resulted from the frustration of repeatedly seeing and hearing him quoted in the mainstream media as something of an impartial expert regarding the condition of the housing market. Perhaps not surprisingly, Mr. Lereah tended toward the positive in his interpretation of housing sales data and future predictions, even when signs of weakness began to appear in the market. This must-see graph captures some of his better quotes, and when he offered them.
For those that didn't explore the first link, Mr. Lereah published a book in early 2005 entitled "Are you missing the Real Estate Boom? Why home values and other real estate investments will climb through the end of the decade- and how you can profit from them."
In 2006, this book was retitled "Why the Real Estate Boom will not bust- and how you can profit from it. How to build wealth in today's expanding real eastate market."
It is therefore interesting and amusing to see Mr. Lereah change the spin on his way out the door, and begin to apply some revisionist history. In this interview with Bob Brinker from early May, he even goes so far as to chastise the "speculators who strayed from fundamentals...and got us in trouble."
David Lereah Interview
[audio:http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/DavidLereah.mp3]
If you want to skip ahead, his comments regarding Southern California arrive just after the 13 minute mark. Here are the highlights:
"L.A., San Diego, they are all out of whack right now. Prices got too high for the median household...there's going to be a long period here, of recovery. Homesellers have been stubborn, they haven't been reducing their prices as fast as their Northeast counterparts. Home sales are way down right now, and it will take price decreases- sellers lowering their prices- to bring buyers back to the marketplace. I suspect we're not going to see any type of recovery there until at least 2008."
While these decidedly negative comments may not sound particularly surprising to many of us, they are coming from the most prominent market cheerleader of the past several years, bar-none. The 'soft landing' holdouts may find this particularly sobering (and they should).
Despite this apparent dose of rationality, David still makes some bizarre remarks that are worth listening for:
If speculators wouldn't have come in to Vegas...
Commissions are Commissions
The baseball team the could save D.C. real estate
Fingers and toes crossed, X2
Bob didn't exactly give him a tough interview, but having David on the hook for more than a glib, obfuscated single quote was worth it to me.
It will be interesting to see how David's heir apparent, Lawrence Yun, does carrying the torch as the market continues to correct, unwind, fall apart, or whatever you want to call it. Donning the skirt and waving the pom poms will require even more gumption in the months ahead.
We are the Irvine Housing Blog. I know we have all been enjoying the failed flips and ridiculous asking prices, but there is much more to see in our housing market. I came across this property in my perusing the market, and I thought you might find it interesting.
As you may have noticed, music and video tends to pop into my head while writing these posts...
Beds: 4
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,400
Lot Sq. Ft.: 5,500
Year Built: 1971
Stories: 1
Type: Single Family Residence
County: Orange
Neighborhood: El Camino Real
$/Sq. Ft.: $471
MLS#: S484245
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 49 days
Fixer-upper
"SECLUDED, very PRIVATE location at end of cul-de-sac on single-loaded street. New carpet. One bedroom being used as den. Needs some TLC, but great deal with no HOA and no Mello-Roos. Family room was an add-on"
Jingle bell, jingle bell, jingle bell rock
