Irvine Housing Blog

Burning Down the House

Burning Down the House -- The Talking Heads

Today's featured property is a very rare find in Irvine -- a vacant lot on which you can do what you want. You wouldn't have total freedom, this is still Irvine, and you would have to deal with the Turtle Rock HOA, but you would not have to deal with the Irvine Company or one of its approved builders. You could create a custom home exactly the way you want it, without having to buy an existing house and demolish it. Our challenge today is to figure out what this lot is worth. 

Asking Price: $549,900

Income Requirement: Depends on Structure

Downpayment Needed: $549,900

Address: 19441 Sierra Chula Road, Irvine, CA 92603

My House Is Worth More

Luxurious -- Gwen Stefani

Some people still have not figured out there is an epic price crash taking place. When you look at the asking prices in Irvine, people are still of the opinion their houses are worth at or above peak prices. The fact is that prices have dropped more than 20% and they continue their downward descent. Even when confronted with neighboring properties selling for less, people lapse into denial and believe "my house is worth more." I guess $15,000 in pergraniteel can add $150,000 in luxury value to a property. Who knew?

Asking Price: $800,000

Income Requirement: $200,000

Downpayment Needed: $160,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $6,666

Purchase Price: $556,000

Purchase Date: 7/24/2003

Address: 206 Tuberose, Irvine, CA 92603

Equity Inferno

Disco Inferno -- The Trammps

The twin towers known as the Marquee at Park Place is a lasting symbol of everything wrong with the housing bubble (Two mass fires, yes! One hundred stories high.) These urban units were 30 years ahead of their time, and perhaps in 30 years, the buyers in these towers will be able to sell their units for what they paid for them. The obscenity of the prices there will be laid bare in today's post. I will run through the cost of ownership numbers as compared to the cost of a rental and demonstrate what these units are really worth to an owner occupant.

I must confess, I have been holding off profiling these towers. There is limited information available on these units in the data services I use, so my picture is somewhat incomplete; however, the main reason I have waited to post on these units is because in the very first post done on this unit back in early 2007, I lost it in the comments section. It is pretty rare that I lose my cool, but I did there. The exchange went as follows:

Levee Breaks

When the Levee Breaks -- Led Zeppelin

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Today's featured property is another mortgage equity withdrawal casualty. Properties like this underscore the dangers of partaking in the appreciation kool aid of the Great Housing Bubble. Most, if not all, of the people who believed in endless appreciation and serial refinancing took out their equity. Many utilized Option ARMs, and they are going to lose their homes. Think about the ramifications of that belief and the decision it influenced: Homeowners who did not take out their equity and refinance with Option ARMs are not going to be in financial trouble, and they will keep their homes. Those that did take out their equity are going to lose their homes. This is one very important life decision supported by a bevy of fallacious beliefs with very serious consequences. Financial bubbles are only fun when they are inflating...

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal 1991-2007

There could be any of a number of reasons this house is for sale now, but the fact that the owner took out an Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate in January of 2006 is likely the reason for the sale. A 2/28 Option ARM would have reset in February, and the payment on a $1,000,000 mortgage is quite large. There is also a HELOC for $144,500. If the HELOC is tapped, and if the negative amortization has accumulated, the total debt on this property could be approaching $1,250,000. It doesn't seem likely they owe less than a $1,000,000. Perhaps they invested the money wisely and they can pay down the debt at resale. If so, they would be the exception and not the rule.

Asking Price: $1,129,000

Income Requirement: $282,250

Downpayment Needed: $225,800

Monthly Equity Burn: $9,408

Purchase Price: $584,500

Purchase Date: 5/4/2001

Address: 14 Mar Vista, Irvine, CA 92602

Do you like our new graphic, MaxedOut HELOC? 

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If this seller obtains their asking price, they stand to make $476,760. That is a great profit for 7 years ownership. Of course, they probably won't get their asking price, and it is likely they have already spent their profits, but if they get lucky, someone will bail them out of their debts and buy this property. Let's assume for a moment this seller gets their asking price and walks away with no debt and no credit damage. So what? If they spent all the money, they don't have any equity to take with them to buy the next property. Do they have the income and the saved downpayment to afford a similar property in the future? Maybe, but I rather doubt it. Once that money is spent, it is gone forever. There is a price to be paid for that "free" money during the bubble. Many former homeowners will pay the price with a greatly diminished quality of housing. HELOC abusers do pay a price. Nothing in life is free.

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Another song about the housing bubble? Is it raining debt? Is it raining REOs? Will praying for a bailout help? Where is the market going? going down now...

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break,
If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break,
When The Levee Breaks I'll have no place to stay.

Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan,
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan,
Got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home,
Oh, well, oh, well, oh, well.

Don't it make you feel bad
When you're tryin' to find your way home,
You don't know which way to go?
If you're goin' down South
They go no work to do,
If you don't know about Chicago.

Cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.

All last night sat on the levee and moaned,
All last night sat on the levee and moaned,
Thinkin' about me baby and my happy home.
Going, going to Chicago... Going to Chicago...
Sorry but I can't take you...
Going down... going down now... going down....

When the Levee Breaks -- Led Zeppelin

Flying

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Wouldn't it be nice if prices really did go up forever? Wouldn't it be great if none of us had to work, and we could all just live off the appreciation of our houses? There really isn't much difference between believing in the magical kool aid of the bubble and believing in other forms of magical thinking. It is a wonderful fantasy, and believing in endless price appreciation must feel very good. I guess perpetual house price appreciation is the adult version of Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy. If I had been able to drink the kool aid, I would have been less distressed by what I witnessed in 2004 through 2006. Ignorance really can be bliss.

How many homeowners are out there waiting for the good times to come again? I think Tom Petty put it well:

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Well the good old days may not return
And the rocks might melt, and the sea may burn

I'm learning to fly but I ain't got wings
Comin' down is the hardest thing

Well some say life will beat you down
Break your heart, steal your crown
So I started out for God knows where
But I guess Ill know when I get there

Im learning to fly around the clouds
But what goes up must come down

Learning to Fly -- Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers

Asking Price: $544,000

Income Requirement: $136,000

Downpayment Needed: $108,800

Monthly Equity Burn: $4,533

Purchase Price: $645,000

Purchase Date: 3/16/2007

Address: 63 Burlingame, Irvine, CA 92602

Corporate relocation home. Competely detached. Large wrap-around yard. View. New paint throughout. Gorgeous hardwood floors. 2 master suites plus den area. Gorgeous hardwood floors. Prestigeous guard-gated community.

Competely Prestigeous.

Three and four word sentences. I like the economy of words.

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The title history on this property is a bit unclear. Sitex still shows the 2004 purchaser as the current owner, and it does not pick up a 2007 transaction referenced in Redfin. If someone did pay $645,000 for this place in March 2007, the 2004 owner (whose outstanding debt was $619,800 after her refinance) got very lucky. Perhaps this was a corporate relocation. If so, the corporation is a bagholder, and they are going to lose at least $133,640 after a 6% commission.

I hope you have enjoyed this week at the Irvine Housing Blog. Come back next week as we continue chronicling ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.

Stealth Rally

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F117 Nighthawk

There must be a stealth rally happening in the Irvine housing market because I sure don't see it. Perhaps it has just been a stealth market crash because today's seller didn't seem to notice. If you took the rally that lead up to 2006's peak pricing and projected it forward into 2008, you might be able to come up with today's asking price, but in our current market? WTF?

Asking Price: $1,999,000

Income Requirement: $499,750

Downpayment Needed: $399,800

Monthly Equity Burn: $16,658 or more

Purchase Price: $726,000

Purchase Date: 8/21/1998

Address: 111 Nighthawk, Irvine, CA 92604

Most Spectacular Home in the Woodbridge Reserve. Attention to detail throughout this incredibly gorgeous Home. Living Room with Fireplace and Cathedral Ceilings. Gourmet Kitchen with Granite Counters, Recessed Lighting, Tile Floors, and Custom Backsplash behind professional grade cook top. Formal Dining Room with Chandelier. Family Room with Media Niche and Second Fireplace, and One Downstairs Bedroom. Master Suite and Three additional Bedrooms upstairs. Oasis like extra deep Backyard with sparkling Pool, Spa, and Fountains. Covered Outdoor BBQ Area with recessed lighting, custom built granite and stone counters, and ceiling fan. Outdoor Fireplace with sitting area perfect for entertaining. One of the newest developments in Woodbridge by Standard Pacific Homes and NO MELLO ROOS!

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When I first saw this listing, I figured it was just a vanity listing. By putting the house for sale for $2,000,000, some homeowner can believe their house is worth $2,000,000. Perhaps it makes everyone else in the neighborhood feel good as well, or perhaps a homeowner just wants to tell all his neighbors that his house is better than theirs.

However, when I looked at the mortgage data, I was astounded by the activity on this property. I can't determine how much this homeowner really owes because the total of all the listed loans is $4,631,380. Hopefully, on one of the many refinances, some of these old loans were paid off. His mortgage broker must love him with all the fees this guy has generated. Apparently, he can handle the payments as there has been no activity since late 2004. This doesn't appear to be a distressed sale, but it doesn't appear this seller would get a $1,153,060 check at the closing either. Of course, at this WTF price, there will be no closing, but it makes for a nice fantasy.

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You were the girl that changed my world
You were the girl for me
You lit the fuse I stand accused
You were the first for me

But you turned me out baby

You dropped a bomb on me, baby
You dropped a bomb on me.

But you turned me on baby.

You dropped a bomb on me, baby
You dropped a bomb on me.

You were my thrills, you were my pills
You dropped a bomb on me

You turn me out, you turn me on, you turned me loose
Then you turned me wrong

You dropped a bomb on me, baby
You dropped a bomb on me.

You Dropped a Bomb on Me -- The Gap Band

The Millionaire

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There are many ways to become a millionaire. You could find oil on your property like Jed Clampett from the Beverly Hillbillies, or you could have your property could go up in value $1,000,000 like today's owners did. What would you do with $1,000,000? Some people would take the money and invest it and make even more money; some people who hit the lottery spend it all and are poor again in a few short years. Today's sellers are in the latter category.

Asking Price: $1,299,000

Income Requirement: $324,750

Downpayment Needed: $259,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $10,825

Purchase Price: $265,000

Purchase Date: 5/28/1981

Address: 4 Rainstar, Irvine, CA 92614

Find your home in Woodbridge's Landing tract with this entertainer's dream home. Enjoy this home's downstairs bedroom (currently used as office) and bath as well as a versatile upstairs bonus room, which can double as an oversized additional bedroom. The kitchen is a cook's dream, with French noire cabinets and an expansive cookspace. The kitchen opens to a warm family room with coffered ceilings, a custom dual-fireplace and wet bar. A large living room with vaulted ceilings adjoins to the formal dining room. This model has a the perfect floorplan for entertaining, whether inside or in the expansive backyard with the built-in granite BBQ and custom-built patio coverings. The front walk, driveway and rear are paved with Bouquet Canyon stonework. Featuring award winning schools and community amenities. Finishing details such as custom crown moldings, plantation shutters and ceiling treatments complete the look. Just steps to South Lake, tennis, pools and spas.

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Just when I think I have seen the worst HELOC and refi abuse imaginable, I keep finding more (actually Brittney finds these -- thank you, Brittney.)

Today's sellers owe more than $1,214,500 on a house they purchased in 1981 for $265,000.

Can you believe that? After 27 years of ownership, they should have almost completely paid off a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and be looking forward to having a $1,000,000 for their retirement. Instead, they have nothing, nada, zero. They have refinanced themselves into oblivion; either that, or they are have exercised their mortgage "put" option.

Today's sellers first step to the Dark Side came in 2002 when they refinanced for $450,000. Apparently, the lure of free money was too much for them so they refinanced again in 2006 for $1,175,000. Finally, their journey to the Dark Side was complete in 2007 when they took out an Option ARM for $1,000,000 and a stand-alone second for $214,500.

Even if these sellers get their sales price (this is borderline WTF,) they get $1,221,060 after a 6% commission. Anyone want to guess what the outstanding loan balances total up to? It sure looks like they will sell for a $1,000,000 gain, and they will not get a penny at the closing table. Amazing.

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Chart of the day:

Inflation adjusted projections based on S&P/Case-Shiller Indices for Los Angeles 1987-2013

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I'm not a bad person,
I don't drink, and I don't kill.
I got no evil habits, and I probably never will.

I don't sing like Elvis Presley,
I can't dance like Fred Astaire.
But there's one thing in my favor,
I'm a millionaire!

CHORUS:
And I got more money,
Than a horse has hairs.
Cause my rich old uncle died,
And answered all my prayers!

Having all this money,
Is going to bring me down.
If you ain't with me honey,
To help me spread it around!

I could get myself a nose job,
I could diet for a year.
But I'll never be Robert Redford,
Cause I'm much to fond of beer.

Please don't misunderstand me,
It's not love I'm trying to buy.
It's just I got all this here money,
And I'm a pretty ugly guy.

CHORUS

I don't mind if you love me for my money,
If you love me for whatever else I got.
But 'cept for all this stuff, I'm a lonely Fort Knox,
I don't guess I'm doing all that hot.

CHORUS

Money, money, money, money................

The Millionaire -- Dr. Hook

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A New Drug

I want a new drug
One that wont make me sick
One that wont make me crash my car
Or make me feel three feet thick

I want a new drug
One that wont hurt my head
One that wont make my mouth too dry
Or make my eyes too red

One that wont make me nervous
Wondering what to do
One that makes me feel like I feel when Im with you
When I'm alone with you

I want a new drug
One that wont spill
One that dont cost too much
Or come in a pill

I want a new drug
One that wont go away
One that wont keep me up all night
One that wont make me sleep all day

I Want a New Drug -- Huey Lewis and the News

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Right when I start to think sellers are accepting the reality of the new market, I come across a listing that makes my jaw drop at the greed and clueless irrationality of my fellow man. Today's seller needs a new drug because they have clearly overdosed on the kool aid...

Asking Price: $1,395,000

Income Requirement: $348,750

Downpayment Needed: $279,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $11,625 at least

Purchase Price: $860,000

Purchase Date: 3/26/2004

Address: 1 Lorenzo, Irvine, CA 92614

One of largest entertaining back yards in community. Low HOA fee. Highly artistic customized upgrades with oak wood cabinets and granite counter tops through out, stainless steel appliances, cove & recessed lighting in the kitchen & 1st floor BR, wine rack in kitchen. 18'X18' travertine flooring, wood & carpet flooring, Granite shower walls, frameless glass cover enclosure of master BR shower, 3 French door openings in Living room & 1st floor Br, 2 French doors in family & living Rooms, Granite counter top with top grade grill for built in private B. B. Q. Built in out door granite bar. Professional Landscaping.

How many times does the word "granite" appear in this listing?

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It has been demonstrated on the blog over and over again with listings all across the spectrum of housing that we are in a market decline, and pricing is back at 2004 levels for those few properties that are actually selling. But no, this property is different, this property has increased in value over 60% during the last 4 years. Forget the fact prices have dropped almost 20% from the peak; it is as if that never occurred. This property has been appreciating at 15% a year just like it did during the height of the bubble when they bought it. Do these sellers have their heads in the sand, or is it somewhere else? The cognitive dissonance is truly remarkable. It takes courage to put a listing price out there like this. This price clearly insults the intelligence of every buyer in the marketplace. Aren’t they worried about insulting potential buyers? No wait, I suppose potential buyers should be worried about insulting them with a lowball offer, right? This property would be fortunate to sell for what they paid for it. Can you imagine their reaction if they got an offer for what it is worth in today’s market? What would happen if they got a real lowball offer for perhaps what this place will be worth at the bottom -- I'm guessing 50% off their asking price? Anyone want to go mess with them? It is the only buyer interest they are likely to see at this listing price.

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That concludes another week at the Irvine Housing Blog. Come back next week as we continue chronicling ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.

More Avenue One Price Drops - UPDATE #1

Originally posted December 27, 2007

Address: 1124 Scholarship, Irvine, CA 92612
Plan: 1A 725 sq ft - 1/1
MLS: P609516 DOM: 46
Sale History: none
Current Price: $334,990

See our previous posts on Avenue One. This brand new home is for sale by the builder, K Hovnanian. The builder listed a similar property in October 2006 for $396,990 which translates to about a 15% drop in asking price in the past 14 months.

Here are the private remarks on the property:

BROKERS AND REALTORS, DOUBLE YOUR COMMISSION TO 6% ON SELECT UNITS. Contracts must be written by 12-31-07 and COE by 1-31-08. MOVE-IN-READY. $10,000 Deposit required. Agents must bring Buyers to the Sales Office and register them during their very first visit to Avenue One. Our Sales Office ( 2100 Scholarship ) is open Mo. 1p.m. - 5p.m. and Tue. - Sun. 9a.m. - 5p.m. Please call a Sales Consultant at 949-975-8545 and ask about our current specials , incentives and upcoming events.

The builder has priced this well below other units with the same plan. It's putting this seller (a RE Broker who has the highest asking price for this plan) in a tough spot:

Address: 1138 Scholarship, Irvine, CA 92612
Plan: 1A 725 sq ft - 1/1
MLS: P584759 DOM: 123
Sale History: About $409k on 8/2006?
Current Price: $420,000

These 725 sq ft units can bring in a rent of $1400-$1600/month. What's the unit worth to you?

UPDATE #1 - February 13, 2008

Recently, I noticed that several units in this complex were labeled as 'Sold' in MLS. What's interesting is the price listed in MLS as the Sold Price. These units were all sold by the builder:

• 1164 Scholarship - Plan 1B - 1/1 - 602 sq ft
  - Sold for $323,990 on 1/10/2008
• 1124 Scholarship - Plan 1A - 1/1 - 725 sq ft
  - Sold for $253,492 on 1/30/2008
• 1327 Scholarship - Plan 1A - 1/1 - 725 sq ft
  - Sold for $280,591 on 1/29/2008
• 1434 Scholarship - Plan 2AL - 2/2 - 1213 sq ft
  - Sold for $445,042 on 1/25/2008

And here's what is pending from the builder:

• 2138 Scholarship - Plan 2A - 2/2 - 1037 sq ft
  - $474,990
• 2434 Scholarship - Plan 2AL - 2/2 - 1213 sq ft
  - $556,990
• 1446 Scholarship - Plan 3AL - 2?/2 - 1538 sq ft
  - $674,990

The Sold prices are significantly lower than anything we've seen in this tract. I haven't been able to confirm this information with the Title info. If anyone can confirm, please post. As I've mentioned on other Avenue One posts, the builder is going to sell these units one way or another.

The 1124 Scholarship unit is the one that started the this post on Dec 27, 2007. If it can be rented for $1600/month, then it is at just under the 160 multiple.

Valentine

To my wife:

I worship and adore you,
like the goddess that you are,
loving you is easy,
you are my superstar.

I have put you up so high
through these years as one,
and when I don't annoy you,
we do have ample fun.

So much time is writing
for this goofy blog,
You are petrified your prince
has morphed into a frog.

I enticed you with my fairytales
so you became my spouse,
my vision is through writing,
perchance we'll get that house.

Your faith in me is rooted
you are patient like a tree,
Our family draws its spirit
from you, more than me.

The words they do elude me,
I know I can't express,
the love I feel when with you,
the sight, the sound, the caress.

I have never felt so blessed
as when you became my wife,
with you I am happy,
you make my time a Life.

I promised you a poem,
for all the world to see,
it's a clumsy, clownish cliche,
but what did you expect from me?

IrvineRenter

By special request: The Style Council - You're The Best Thing

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As part of my Valentine's gift to my wife, I have asked her to show me her favorite house available for sale in Irvine. I told her it did not have to be realistically within our price range, it just had to be her dream house. If any of you have seen the video for The Secret, it does contain a thread of truth concerning goal setting and visualization of a better future. Although these things have no impact on a financial market, they can influence decisions in one's daily life that have a powerful synergistic effect leading in many cases to the achievement of the goals and aspirations of one's deepest vision. This post is my wife's vision board of the perfect house.

Now if I could just get each of the 3,500 daily readers to donate $3,336.85 to my downpayment fund, I could raise the $11,679,000 necessary to buy the house. I haven't quite figured out where I am going to come up with the $9,732 per month I would need to cover the property taxes, but according to The Secret, I don't need to worry about how these things will happen, I just need to focus on the vision of it happening. Perhaps I am a bit myopic, but I have a hard time seeing this coming to pass...

Asking Price: $11,679,000

Income Requirement: More than you make

Downpayment Needed: More than you have

Monthly Equity Burn: Who cares?

Purchase Price: $3,969,400 for lot

Purchase Date: unknown

Address: 56 Golden Eagle, Irvine, CA 92603

Tuscany inspired residence on one of Shady Canyon's largest and most private lots. One of the finest homes yet to be offered in one of the country's most prestigious private communities. This home features 5 large bedrooms, 6 full and 3 half baths, 3000+ square feet subterranean garage, commercial elevator and nearly 11000 feet of living area, huge pool and outdoor entertaining areas with multiple water features.

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Let's take a closer look at this property...

The view is fantastic. The rock outcrop provides an interesting focal point.

A great entertaining room with wet bar and big screen with beautiful wood inlays.

A modest room to hang out with the family. I particularly like how the indoor and outdoor spaces blend together by eliminating the separating wall.

This was one of my wife's favorite features. Again the distinction between what is an indoor space and what is an outdoor space is blurred. The swimming pool becomes part of the environment.

The pool and spa are spectacular.

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So there you have it, my wife's Irvine dream home. I must admit, I like her vision.

For those of you who want to work on your visualization skills this Valentine's day, I have a video for you: Kiss Me.

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