Originally posted: September 28, 2006
Address: 48 Arborside, Irvine, CA 92603 (Turtle Ridge)
Plan: 1770 sq ft - 3/2.5
MLS: U6602272 DOM: 62
Sale History: 06/19/2006: $908,000
Current Price: $960,000
These flippers wasted no time by putting this one on the market only a little over a month after they purchased. My guess here is that they tried to catch a falling knife. The people they bought the home from TRIED to get $985k and worked down to $959k before selling for $908k after at least 4 months (see MLS#'s S424164 and S436681).
It seems the new buyers got a reality check and just want to get out. Factoring in an estimated 6% to be paid out in commissions, the owners will lose $5,600. That's IF they get a full price offer and that DOES NOT include their holding costs. It will most likely be a lot worse. We'll have to follow up with this one when it closes.
UPDATE #1 - December 5, 2006
48 Arborel closed escrow on 11/19/2006 for $917,500. That's quite a difference from the original asking price of $980,000 when it was listed on 7/28/2006. Doing the math (assuming 6% in selling costs) shows that this flipper lost AT LEAST $45,550! The actual loss could be even greater if they paid money towards closing costs for the new buyer.
The new buyers actually paid slightly more for this property than the flipper did. But the flipper still lost over $45k. So where did all that money go?!? That's right.. to the Real Estate Brokers and Agents as well as Title and Escrow. 
Originally posted: October 1, 2006
Address: 76 Alevera St., Irvine, CA 92618 (Oak Creek)
Plan: Plan 2 - 1200 sq ft - 2/2.5
MLS: S452336 DOM: 61
Sale History: 10/31/2005: $585,000
Price Reduced: 08/18/06 -- $625,000 to $615,000
Price Reduced: 09/29/06 -- $615,000 to $589,000
Current Price: $589,000
This is a detached condo in the Aldea tract in Oak Creek. This tract built by California Pacific Homes (a subsidiary of the Irvine Company), has been replicated many times throughout Irvine in various reincarnations: Sage in Quail Hill, Chantory in Turtle Ridge, Cortile in Woodbury.
It seems this Plan 2 was purchased as an investment property and now the owners have bought another investment property and need to sell this to make their 1031 exchange complete. Since the owners have already purchased their replacement property, they need to sell this one within 180 days to take advantage of the 1031 tax break. Because of this, as they get closer to the end of the 180 days, they will be more and more motivated to lower the price quickly if they aren't getting any offers. Also, it looks like they have quite a bit of equity built up in this property as I can find only a $300k loan after a quick search. Taking into account the slowing RE market in Orange County, the circumstances of their 1031 exchange, and also the financial situation which will allow them to lower the price big time if they MUST sell, this property could be very interesting to watch in the future!
If sold at the current asking price, the sellers will take a hit of $31,000 (assuming 6% commissions).
UPDATE #1 - December 4, 2006
Well, it looks like the sellers successfully unloaded this property at the price of $589,000. MLS shows that escrow closed 11/28/2006. It looks like their loss is $31,340 (assuming 6% in selling costs). It may be higher if they credited the buyer to closing costs.. but I guess we'll never know.
I have to admit, I'm a little surprised the price on this property didn't come down a little further. Based on this sale, prices in the Aldea tract are pretty much what they were a year ago.
Originally posted: September 29, 2006
Address: 714 Timberwood, Irvine, CA 92620 (Northwood)
Plan: 1400 sq ft - 2/2.5
MLS: R65177 DOM: 129
Sale History: 06/18/2004: $575,000
11/01/2002: $365,000
Price Reduced: 05/26/06 -- $575,000 to $567,000
Price Reduced: 06/02/06 -- $567,000 to $555,000
Price Increased: 06/22/06 -- $555,000 to $564,900
Price Reduced: 09/16/06 -- $564,900 to $545,000
Price Reduced: 09/25/06 -- $545,000 to $529,900
Current Price: $529,900
Wow! The owner here is going to be taking a HUGE hit. This property is well below it's 2004 price. Perhaps there's more to this than meets the eye. If this is legit, we're talking about a $77,000 loss (includes 6% in commissions).
UPDATE #1 - October 5, 2006
After 132 DOM, apparently this listing expired a few days after we mentioned it here. I'm not sure why but the agent bumped the price up to $545,000 right before it expired. Did the owners change their mind about selling? NOPE, the property is now back with a FRESH new listing and a LOWER price!
MLS: R70292 DOM: 3
Current Price: $499,900
Let's take a look at the price. The highest price that one of these Plan 4s sold for was $605,000 for 208 Timberwood on 4/27/2006. That buyer must be feeling pretty crappy right now. Our buddy here at 714 Timberwood is asking $105,000 less. That's a decline of over 17% in about 5 months!!
If sold for the new listing price, the seller will be losing over $105,000!
UPDATE #2 - October 24, 2006
DOM: 22
Current Price: $530,000
Shortly after our last update, the property went into Pending status in MLS (typically meaning that it's in Escrow) at a price of $530,000. Perhaps pricing it at $499k generated some interest/offers. Unfortunately, a few days ago the status went back to Active and the price is now $530k. I'm going to wait until this actually sells to estimate the loss. Regardless, it will be a big loser.
UPDATED #3 - December 4, 2006
Thanks to the latest comment by almostgotbitten, I've confirmed in MLS that this property closed on 11/27/2006 for $520,000. Assuming 6% in selling costs, the seller lost at least $86,200 in a couple years!
Right now there are 4 other 2/2.5 units (all about 1267 sq ft) that are priced between $545-$560k. You would think the closing price of 714 Timberwood would motivate some of these other units to lower their prices. We'll see..
Garland Park is a tract built from 2004-2006 by William Lyon Homes in the village of Woodbury. These condos have a bit more privacy than the other William Lyon condos at Lombard Court. There are four models ranging from 1,355 - 1,971 sq ft:
- Residence 1: 1,355 sq ft - 2bd/2.5ba
- Residence 2: 1,737 sq ft - 3bd/2.5ba
- Residence 3: 1,878 sq ft - 3bd/3ba
- Residence 4: 1,971 sq ft - 3bd/2.5ba
In Garland Park, there are currently SIX plan 1's listed for sale in MLS. 4 of them are listed by flippers:
Address: 199 Wild Lilac, Irvine, CA 92620 (Woodbury)
MLS: S463131 DOM: 39
Price Reduced: 11/24/06 -- $579,900 to $565,000
Price Reduced: 11/25/06 -- $565,000 to $554,900
Current Price: $554,900
Address: 126 Chantilly, Irvine, CA 92620 (Woodbury)
MLS: S464403 DOM: 28
Current Price: $559,000
Address: 124 Chantilly, Irvine, CA 92620 (Woodbury)
MLS: S464852 DOM: 30
Current Price: $579,500
Address: 181 Groveland, Irvine, CA 92620 (Woodbury)
MLS: S444308 DOM: 172
Price Reduced: 07/17/06 -- $604,900 to $589,900
Current Price: $589,900
Adding to this inventory is the builder who is trying to unload 2 more of the same plan:
Address: 188 Guinevere, Irvine, CA 92620 (Woodbury)
MLS: S464397 DOM: 28
Prior Listing: $580,990 - 41 DOM
Current Price: $574,990
Address: 180 Guinevere, Irvine, CA 92620 (Woodbury)
MLS: S464399 DOM: 28
Prior Listing: $619,990 - 27 DOM
Current Price: $599,990
It looks like the flippers for the most part are lowering prices ahead of the builder. But the scenario could quickly change into one similar to that at Avenue One.
Address: 191 Streamwood, Irvine, CA 92620 (Northwood)
Plan: 854 sq ft - 2/1
MLS: S453757 DOM: 102
Sale History: 7/14/2005: $353,000
1/27/2000: $112,000
Price Reduced: 9/06/06 — $369,000 to $365,000
Price Reduced: 10/26/06 — $365,000 to $359,000
Current Price: $359,000
This Plan F? in the Irvine Springs tract in Northwood was purchased in July of 2005 and placed back on the market about 1 year later. The seller bought it with 10% down and listed it at $369k knowing that they would lose money on the deal after selling costs. A couple of small price reductions later, and this flip is going to be losing at least $15,000 (after 6% in selling costs).
There is also a similar model Pending Sale at $345,000 located at 112 Streamwood.
