Irvine Housing Blog

Valentine

Foreclosure stats and updates for 2/13/08

DataQuick reported the foreclosure numbers today. Hat tip to Matt Padilla for the numbers.

My guesstimate numbers, from Friday, were pretty close. It seems my math is coming in low for the NODs, but it is still within a 10% error margin. I will experiment with a new calculation for this month, and see if it comes closer to the real numbers. Also, my number for foreclosures will always be higher than DQ's numbers, because I include the homes that are bought by someone, other than the bank, at the auction.

One quibble I have, is Matt stated "To be sure, foreclosures account for a small percentage of total housing stock in O.C., which has increased by tens of thousands of homes since the last downturn of the 1990s." This is not true when you do the math. The owner occupied (keep in mind, DQ’s foreclosure numbers are for owner occupied housing) housing stock at the end of 1996 was 560,753, and in 2007 it was 614,815. The record foreclosure month was October 1996, with 674, and now the record is 802.

That is…

1 foreclosure for every 832 homes in 1996.

1 foreclosure for every 767 homes in 2008.

Any way you look at it, it is bad, it is really, really bad.

And, for the first five days in February there has been 580 NODs recorded (116 per day), 229 NTSs recorded (45.8 per day), and 189 trustee deeds recorded (37.8 per day). Keep in mind, February has 19 business days compared to January's 21 business days. So, while the monthly numbers may not be higher, or the same, they are still increasing.

Today, 40 homes went back to the bank at the Santa Ana court house, and 2 sold. Here are the 5 homes in Irvine that went back to the bank...

51 Momento for $1.52mil.

70 Oak Tree Ln. for $565k.

2253 martin street #114, for $350k.

115 remington #327, for $304k.

305 Streamwood, for $258k.

And... the big news of the day, (insert awgee snickering here), Slade's home went back to the bank for $1,282,500. It looks like the zestimate of $3.15mil is a bit high. I guess Jo's singing career is not going so well. And, for those who think we at IHB are completely heartless, and kill a puppy for every home sale, I sincerely hope his kid it doing well. Just remember... don't buy stuff you can't afford. You never know what life will throw at you.

Oh... and, Brian Martinez, of the OCR, did a blog post on the WTF house of Irvine. I wonder if he knew, that IrvineRenter did a post on it already? It would have been nice to be mentioned for breaking the story first.

Deal

Estimated Prophet

Quail Hell

Collage - Northwood - The second casualty in this complex - UPDATE #1

Originally posted December 30, 2006

The first casualty reported by us in the Collage tract was 714 Timberwood. And yes, these are the actual pictures advertising this property. Kinda crappy huh? You really need to evaluate the smaller no-name real estate brokers/agents before you entrust them with your $500k+ sale.

On to the details:

Address: 1602 Timberwood, Irvine, CA 92620 (Northwood)
Plan: 1267 sq ft - 2/2.5
MLS: S467201 DOM: 43
Sale History: 02/21/2006: $560,000
10/31/2003: $300,000
4/18/2001: $240,000
Current Price: $560,000

So what happened here? Well our flippers got in over their heads. They purchased in February 2006 for $560,000 using 100% financing. How common is this?!?!

What I find interesting here is that in the 2.5 years from the original sale in 2001 to the 2003, the price went up $60,000 (25%). And then in the next 2.5 years from 2003 to 2006, the price went up $260,000 (87%).

The buyer in 2003 put down about 27%. The flipper in 2006 put down 0%.

In a rapidly appreciating market (from 2003-2005), flippers used other people's money and made out like bandits. They were looked up to as 'real estate gurus'. My guess is the current seller wanted to get in on the game and not be left behind. Too bad for them. At the current asking price, they are facing a loss of about $33,000 (assuming 6% in selling costs). Oh wait! They didn't put anything down.. I suppose the lender (Fremont Investment & Loan) will be the biggest loser given that the private remarks state: "ALL offers need short sale approval from mortgage holder."

UPDATE #1 - February 5, 2008

Yes, it has been over a year since this property was featured. It looks like the property went back to the bank (La Salle Bank) on 5/25/2007 at a price of $484,358.

It was then listed as a REO on 6/5/2007 for $532,500. The price kept dropping over a few months and it finally sold on 12/27/2007 for $447,000 (~20% off the 2006 price).

WOT 2-9-2008