Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And never brought to mind?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And auld lang syne?
CHORUS:
For auld lang syne, my dear,
For auld lang syne,
We'll tak a cup of kindness yet,
For auld lang syne!
And surely ye'll be your pint-stowp,
And surely I'll be mine,
And we'll tak a cup o kindness yet,
For auld lang syne!
We twa hae run about the braes,
And pou'd the gowans fine,
But we've wander'd monie a weary fit,
Sin auld lang syne.
We twa hae paidl'd in the burn
Frae morning sun till dine,
But seas between us braid hae roar'd
Sin auld lang syne.
And there's a hand my trusty fiere,
And gie's a hand o thine,
And we'll tak a right guid-willie waught,
For auld lang syne
Meanings
auld lang syne - times gone by
be - pay for
braes - hills
braid - broad
burn - stream
dine - dinner time
fiere - friend
fit - foot
gowans - daisies
guid-willie waught - goodwill drink
monie - many
morning sun - noon
paidl't - paddled
pint-stowp - pint tankard
pou'd - pulled
twa - two
2007 has come and gone. This would probably be a great time to do a post on the events and changes we have witnessed over the last year, but with family still visiting, I do not have the time.
We have seen many new visitors this year, many of which may not know where Irvine is or what it looks like. I found these images on Google to help orient everyone on Irvine's place in the world.
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I hope you all are having a great holiday weekend, and I wish you a happy new year.
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Met my old lover in the grocery store
The snow was falling christmas eve
I stole behind her in the frozen foods
And I touched her on the sleeve
She didnt recognize the face at first
But then her eyes flew open wide
She went to hug me and she spilled her purse
And we laughed until we cried.
We took her groceries to the checkout stand
The food was totalled up and bagged
We stood there lost in our embarrassment
As the conversation dragged.
We went to have ourselves a drink or two
But couldnt find an open bar
We bought a six-pack at the liquor store
And we drank it in her car.
We drank a toast to innocence
We drank a toast to now
And tried to reach beyond the emptiness
But neither one knew how.
She said shed married her an architect
Who kept her warm and safe and dry
She would have liked to say she loved the man
But she didnt like to lie.
I said the years had been a friend to her
And that her eyes were still as blue
But in those eyes I wasnt sure if I saw
Doubt or gratitude.
She said she saw me in the record stores
And that I must be doing well
I said the audience was heavenly
But the traveling was hell.
We drank a toast to innocence
We drank a toast to now
And tried to reach beyond the emptiness
But neither one knew how.
We drank a toast to innocence
We drank a toast to time
Reliving in our eloquence
Another auld lang syne...
The beer was empty and our tongues were tired
And running out of things to say
She gave a kiss to me as I got out
And I watched her drive away.
Just for a moment I was back at school
And felt that old familiar pain
And as I turned to make my way back home
The snow turned into rain --
This is the first median I have seen reported under $400K (92612). It is also the first time I have noticed any zip codes with less than 10 sales in a month (92602 & 92614).
Address: 52 Tea Garden, Irvine, CA 92620 (Northwood) Plan: 1600 sq ft - 3/3.5 MLS:S442227DOM: 246 Sale History: 11/27/2004: $754,000 Price Reduced: 06/13/06 -- $899,000 to $859,000 Price Reduced: 06/24/06 -- $859,000 to $848,000 Price Reduced: 07/17/06 -- $848,000 to $819,000 Current Price: $819,000
First, we'll look at the flip. Here we've got a Plan 1 in the Serissa tract built by Lennar in the Village of Northwood. I believe this particular area of Northwood is called Northwood II and it consists of 4 neighborhood tracts that were built around 2003-2005 or so. This home was purchased from the builder for $754,000 in November 2004 (Phase 5). The private remarks on that listing were "This is a model leaseback opportunity. Rare to buy new home on the Irvine Ranch with no owner occupancy requirement. Builder will cover monthly PITI&HOA until the end of June 2005. 2% referral fee paid for escrow that closes no later than November 30, 2004. Please call with any questions, or come and see our beautiful models. Thank you!" I find it strange that the builder was advertising this on MLS at that time.
Lennar found a buyer who came up with a 20% down payment and took out a mortgage for 80%. This buyer purchased the home as an investment property. Perhaps he leased it back to Lennar for a few months. Then he found a new tenant (MLS S397784) to rent it for $2900/month starting in May 2005. I don't know how $2900/month would cover a $600k mortgage + taxes + HOA. But those were good times and the property probably saw some huge appreciation (on paper).
Anyways, a year later (after the 12 month lease was up), this investor placed the home for sale in May 2006 (just in time for the peak summer buying season). The initial asking price was $899,000. That would give him a nice $150k profit (excluding commissions). Unfortunately for him, the market did not like that price. After a few price reductions during the summer (the investor knew he needed to find a GF that summer), the price stabilized at $819,000. Soo.. for the last 6 months the price hasn't changed. Why not? Maybe he doesn't want to lose money on the sale. Perhaps he thinks he'll wait out the downturn and in the meanwhile just bleed a little money since the unit is rented out.
The private remarks on the current listing state: "VEry VEry MOtivated SELLER!!! REduCEd THe PRICE , REduCed And REduCEd, Now offering 3.5%, yes 3.5% to the buyers' agent. SHOWS like a model!. MOTIVATED agents." If sold at the $819,000 asking price and assuming 7% in selling costs, this investor stands to make a whopping $7,000 profit!
Unless there's a considerable difference in upgrades or location, our seller will have to adjust the price at least once more. It gets better (or worse)... Thanks to IRVINITEEE, I learned that the Serissa tract is pretty much the same as the La Casella tract in Woodbury. La Casella has just started to sell their homes and from what has been gathered in the thread, the Plan 1's that just sold started around $690k. That is $130,000 LESS than what our featured seller is trying to unload 52 Tea Garden for.
How will the La Casella sales affect the appraisal values for Serissa? Anyone hear the sounds of instant equity evaporation?! Lennar has priced Phase 1 of La Casella in Woodbury (a full Village with a ton of amenities) in January 2007 to be lower than Phase 5 of Serissa in Northwood II which was sold in November 2004! (I am comparing $690k to $754k) As has been stated before, the builders are going to do whatever it takes to move their product.
UPDATE #1 - February 2, 2007
Thanks to a tip from EvaLSeraphim in the comments, I've learned that this property has been relisted.
The asking price is now $799,000. With 6% in selling costs, the seller will be about $3,000 in the hole. Will a $20k reduction in price help sell this place? I doubt it. But only time will tell.
UPDATE #2 - December 28, 2007
52 Tea Garden is still on the market (it's been on the market under various MLS listings since May 2006). Here's the latest listing: S494270
The new asking price is $759,000 which is about the same as what the investor purchased it from the builder for in November 2004. It's yet another example of a seller chasing the market down. Had this property been priced at $759k in May 2006 it probably would have been sold.
Here's what happened to the other properties in the original post:
48 Bamboo - Plan 1 - Sold for $746,500 on 4/24/2007
37 Wonderland - Plan 1 - Reduced to $749,000 and then the listing expired
45 Bamboo - Plan 2 - Sold for $800,000 on 4/3/2007
47 Secret Garden - Plan 2 - Sold for $792,000 on 8/7/2007
43 Secret Garden - Plan 2 - Sold for $800,000 on 7/20/2007
68 Shadowplay - Plan 2 - Asking price is now $800,000
62 Shadowplay - Plan 2 - Reduced to $814,900 and then off the market
And here are a few other properties that are on the market in the Serissa tract:
Address: 28 Bolinas, Irvine, CA 92602 Plan: 3 - 1622 sq ft - 3bd/2ba MLS: S516101 DOM: 4 Sale History: 12/4/2007: $638,586 (back to the bank)
9/9/2005: $680,000
6/11/2004: $675,000 Current Price: $529,900
This Plan 3 in the San Juan Bautista tract in Northpark went back to the bank earlier this month. At the current asking price, the bank is willing to accept a $100k+ loss on this property.
Here are the private remarks:
Combo R-E-0. Buyer must submit a prequal w/Wells Fargo along with the offer. (Bank rules)Call xxxxxxxxxxxx Property sold AS-IS. $1,000 bonus to selling agent if closes by 2/28/2008.
There is actually another Plan 3 REO townhome in this tract (15 Bolinas) which is pending sale at $532,900. These 2 REO's will definitely have an impact on the comps.
Address: 7 Chenile, Irvine, CA 92614 (Woodbridge) Plan: 2201 sq ft - 4/2.5 MLS: S442943 DOM: 137 Sale History: 4/27/2006: $885,000 9/17/2003: $665,000 Price Reduced: 07/11/06 -- $1,045,000 to $999,000 Price Reduced: 08/02/06 -- $999,000 to $979,000 Current Price: $979,000
Our flipper purchased this Plan C in the Parklane tract in Woodbridge earlier this year and then put it back on the market 1 month later on 6/1/2006 hoping to flip this home for a quick $160,000! He apparently has had a difficult time finding a GF as this home has been on the market for 4.5 months.
The private remarks state:
Price Reduction for the 2nd time. Great Value for the location with lots of upgrades. Vacant - Owner is extremely motivated to sell. Please show and bring all reasonable offers!
Vacant? That explains the extreme motivation. But 2 price reductions and it's still priced $94,000 over what he purchased it for! After 6% in selling costs, our flipper stands to make over $35,000 in profit if he gets his 'reduced' asking price. We'll have to keep our eyes on this one. The flipper put 10% down as far as I can tell and so there is definitely some room for this price to come down.
UPDATE #1 - December 26, 2007
Well it's been a little over a year now and thanks to our wonderful helper britney, we know that this flipper did NOT succeed. The latest listing for this property is: MLS #: S493874. It started out at $947,000, went to a low of $819,000, and is now listed at $850,000.
It looks like when the flipper bought in April 2006, they put 10% down. If sold at the short sale price of $850,000, I'd imagine the bank/seller are going to lose a combined total of about $86,000!
This is a $200k drop from the original asking price in June 2006. Time to buy!! Would you purchase this home for $850k? What about the 2003 price of $665k?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
She didnt recognize the face at first
