Irvine Housing Blog

Home Sales Data thru 9-24-2007

Shady Canyon Rollbacks

Big money goes around the world
Big money take a cruise
Big money leave a mighty wake
Big money leave a bruise
Big money make a million dreams
Big money spin big deals
Big money make a mighty head
Big money spin big wheels

Sometimes building ivory towers
Sometimes knocking castles down
Sometimes building you a stairway

Big Money -- Rush

Link to Music Video

The high end is immune, right?

There are not many properties in Shady Canyon, and even fewer on which I can find the purchase information; however, there are three rollbacks sighted so far. Will there be more on the way?

The first of this is Mark McQuire's old place. This property is the market leader on the way to the bottom. The price was just reduced again. The flipper is looking at a loss of nearly a million dollars after commissions. That property is clearly leading in our race to the bottom, but the two properties we have today are working to catch up.

Asking Price: $3,998,000

Income Requirement: $999,500

Downpayment Needed: $799,600

Purchase Price: $4,030,000

Purchase Date: 1/6/2006

Address: 25 Golden Eagle, Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 4
Baths: 5
Sq. Ft.: -
Lot Size: 0.59 acres
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean
Year Built: 2003
Stories: One Level
View(s): Hills
Area: Turtle Rock
County: Orange
MLS#: S498428
Status: Active
On Redfin: 63 days

From Redfin, "Single Story Custom Home in Shady Canyon. Great, private cul-de-sac location with only one adjoining neighbor. Unobstructed views of pastoral canyon and hills. Tuscan style home beautifully finished with Richard Marshall wood and stone. Spacious grounds with custom built fireplace, BBQ, spa and Wolf appliances throughout. Ideal for family with small child or retired couple. Blueprint and specs for the house are available. Opportunity to expand this single level house to 5900 sq ft."

What is Richard Marshall wood and stone? I guess I am I not cultured enough to know these things. I Googled them. I guess I should be impressed?

Are Wolf appliances better than Viking or Sub-Zero?

Ideal for family with small child or retired couple? I am sure there are many families with small children who want them running around in a museum with hard floors, not to mention the large numbers of families with small children who can afford this place. I don't know about you, but I will not want a 5,000+ SF McMansion when I am retired.

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If this seller gets their asking price and pays a 6% commission, they stand to lose $271,880. There is no mortgage recorded on the property (at least in my database,) so this flipper can absorb the loss.

Asking Price: $4,495,000

Income Requirement: $1,123,750

Downpayment Needed: $899,000

Purchase Price: $4,550,000

Purchase Date: 8/8/2005

Previous Purchase Price: $3,553,500

Previous Purchase Date: 12/15/2004

Address: 50 Vernal Spring, Irvine, CA 92603

1st Loan $2,985,000
2nd Mtg. $200,000
Downpayment $1,365,000

Beds: 4
Baths: 4.5
Sq. Ft.: 5,000
$/Sq. Ft.: $899
Lot Size: 0.57 acres
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Spanish
Year Built: 2005
Stories: One Level
View(s): Mountain
Area: Turtle Rock
County: Orange
MLS#: U7001638
Status: Active
On Redfin: 159 days
Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, "Model perfect single level Masters located in the exclusive golf community of Shady Canyon. This single level home offers three bedrooms plus bonus room and a rare four car garage at the main house and a 4th bedroom and office which is attached but functions as a separate casita! The stunning exterior landscape includes a long gated driveway, pool, spa and covered cabana with fireplace all with fantastic views!"

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What I find interesting about this property is how much the previous flipper made: a hair under $1,000,000 in less than 9 months. No wonder our WTF winner from $1,000 Grand thought this was possible. Well, it looks like the supply of greater fools has run out, and this owner is now the bagholder. If they get their asking price, they stand to lose $324,700 after a 6% commission.

These losses are staggering. I don't care how rich you are, when you are losing a quarter of a million dollars or more, that is Big Money.

Time keeps on slippin' slippin', slippin', into the future... Or is that Time keeps slip sliding away... I hope you aren't Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day...

Another week has passed at the Irvine Housing Blog. Come join us next week as we continue to chronicle ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.

Is fear gripping the market?

Ready for a cheap escape
On the brink of self destruction
Widespread panic
Broken glass inside my head
Bleeding down these thoughts of
Anguish... mass confusion

Panic Song -- Green Day

Link to Music Video

When I am preparing posts, I scan Redfin for properties. When I first started doing this in the spring, rollbacks were hard to find, and most sellers were still trying to make a profit or at least cover their commissions on a sale. As spring gave way to summer, I began finding more and more rollbacks, and foreclosures and short sales were becoming more common. As the summer progressed, I began finding more REOs and deeper rollbacks. It was a relatively quick (for a real estate market) transition from a bull market to a bear market. However, recently I have noticed a more significant change.

In August when the credit market seized up, sales -- which were already low -- almost completely stopped. This credit event and the problems it has created has been widely covered by the mainstream media which has brought it to full public awareness. Over the last few weeks, I have really noticed a change in the market I was not expecting until the winter: fear is gripping the market.

In the post Houses Should Not Be a Commodity I described the stages of a bubble market in great detail. IMO, the developments in the credit market have prematurely jolted the consciousness of the market from denial into fear. A change in market consciousness is a gradual transition as each of the markets participants has a different psychological makeup, but the behavior of many homeowners in the market is evidence that this transition has begun.

Back in mid-July, before the big credit market meltdown in early August, I profiled a series of properties in Oak Creek. There were a few rollbacks, but there wasn't that much inventory, and no real signs of fear or panic. In the last few weeks, there have been several listings of condos and entry-level housing appearing on the market.

Notice the density of green house symbols in certain neighborhoods. In particular the northernmost neighborhood has shown a dramatic increase in the number of listings, and many of these are rollbacks. This is fear in action.

Another neighborhood showing increased listings and more racing to find the bottom is Northwood II.

Like all the new neighborhoods in Irvine, this one is populated by specuvestors who are starting to realize they made a terrible mistake. The homes priced in the $750K to $950K range, so these are not the small condos we are seeing struggle everywhere else. This is the first sign of fear spreading from the low-end of the market to the move-up SFD market.

Another neighborhood showing and increase in listings and a decrease in pricing is Northpark.

In particular, the neighbhorhoods adjacent to the 261 are showing fear transitioning to panic. There have been a large number of foreclosures there, and new listings are popping up to try to get out before the tsunami of REOs washes away whatever equity these owners have left.

Of course, we have our neighborhoods where fear and panic have already set in...

Westpark condos above and Orangetree below...

Quail hill (not shown) is also showing distress. I invite you to go to Redfin and check out the market for yourself.

Fear in the market is not something that can be quantified; however, evidence of fear can be inferred from the behavior of market participants. An increase in listings and lower asking prices is fearful behavior. When the race to the bottom becomes more feverish and sellers start aggressively lowering prices to get out of the market, you will know fear has taken hold and capitulation is right around the corner.

Happy Birthday IHB!

I can't believe it has already been 1 year since we started the Irvine Housing Blog. A lot has changed in that time: lending standards have tightened, OC inventory has continued to pile up, OC builders have reduced their pricing, foreclosures have picked up, sales have slowed down, 160 major US lending operations have "imploded", and the US Dollar has set record lows.

Although not as drastic as what has happened to the housing market, IHB has gone through a number of changes as well. ISM and I began this without knowing whether anyone would be interested in what we were going to write. Lucky for us, two sites that provided our inspiration (OC Fliptrack RIP and Bubble Tracking), linked to us and that really got things moving.

Take a look at our stats:

We went from less than 50,000 pageviews in October 2006 to over 550,000 pageviews in August 2007. Do a Google search for 'housing blog' and IHB is the 5th site (6th link) listed! There are a few items on this chart I'd like to point out (1, 2, and 3):

1. The IHB Forums were launched on January 2, 2007. What began with a slow start eventually turned into a very active and knowledgable community. We have 525+ members, 940+ threads, and 17,000+ comments and every day these numbers continue to grow. There is a wealth of information here ranging from Irvine tract and village information to discussions about architecture and design to threads devoted to wine and beer. The forums also gave rise to our IHB T-shirts (thanks Nude!). More recently, we implemented a live chat (thanks Caycifish!) that has proven to be quite popular.
2. Irvine Renter joined the IHB team with his first post on February 27, 2007 and he's been simply incredible! Although I realized he knew his stuff, I was still surprised by the sheer volume and depth of topics that he has educated all of us on. He has taken this blog to another level and we've received tons of positive feedback from people who have enjoyed and benefited from his writings (especially his analysis posts). The community profiles that he has written clearly show his love for the City of Irvine; take a look at the beautiful pictures and you may discover a park or tract that you weren't aware of before.
3. An article by Daniel Gross of slate.com linked to IHB on July 26, 2007. The article was syndicated in the Washington Post and Newsweek/MSNBC and brought some great national exposure to our site.

Many thanks to ISM, graphrix, and socalhousingbubble for their solid contributions. In addition to the main blog posts, there have been numerous blog comments that have provided insight into the feature properties. An interesting stat is that our spam blocker has caught 20,072 spam comments as of this moment. I also want to thank Redfin and our other site sponsors for their support!

Thanks everyone for a fantastic year! All of your contributions are what has made this site become what it is. What's next? We want to keep the momentum going and we've got some ideas for the site that we are planning to implement soon. As always, we're happy to listen to your suggestions on how to bring more value to our readers.

Go IHB!

$1,000 Grand

If I Had a Million Dollars

If I had a million dollars (If I had a million dollars)
Well I’d buy you a house (I’d buy you a house)
And if I had a million dollars (If I had a million dollars)
I’d buy you furniture for your house (maybe a nice chesterfield or an ottoman)
And if I had a million dollars (If I had a million dollars)
Well I’d buy you a K-Car (a nice reliant automobile)
And if I had a million dollars, I’d buy your love

If I had a million dollars I’d build a tree-fort in our yard
If I had a million dollars you could help, it wouldn’t be that hard

If I had a million dollars -- Barenaked Ladies

Link to Music Video

$1,000 Grand: a million dollars. Today's WTF award winner thinks his house has appreciated $1,108,000 in the last year -- a year in which we have shown rollbacks of 10%-20%. We even documented a neighbor who went into foreclosure and sold at a 20% loss, but somehow this house has appreciated 25%. WTF?

Asking Price: $4,495,000

Income Requirement: $1,123,750

Downpayment Needed: $899,000

Purchase Price: $3,387,000

Purchase Date: 5/19/2006

Address: 25 Grandview, Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 5
Baths: 5.5
Sq. Ft.: 5,900
$/Sq. Ft.: $762
Lot Size: 0.32 acres
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: French, Traditional
Year Built: 2006
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): City Lights, Hills, Mountain, Panoramic, Trees/Woods, Valley, Has View
Area: Turtle Ridge
County: Orange
MLS#: U7003538
Status: Active
On Redfin: 37 days

From Redfin, "Beautiful La Cima estate in Turtle Ridge. 5 Bed, 5.5 bath with exceptional panoramic views of hills and city lights. Built in 2006 by Laing Luxury, enjoy an upstaris Master and a downstairs Jr Suite, downstairs playroom, and upstairs bonus room. 4-car garage, 1,200 bottle climate-controlled wine cellar, pre-wired for custom sound in and out. Approved plans for custom pool and spa."

Approved plans? You mean you want a million dollars more than you paid, and you didn't even bother building the pool? WTF?

Maybe this seller put a million dollars worth of wine in the cellar? He must have added some value...

This appears to have been purchased new from the builder. Nice to know the builder found their bagholder.

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Weren't the bubble years great? You could just buy a property, hold it for a year, and make a million dollars. Isn't that the way it works? Everyone is making 25% more money each year, right?

When you see a listing like this, do you get a sense of what a Ponzi Scheme this whole bubble really was? When does it all end? Will this house be worth $6,000,000 next year, and $8,000,000 the year after that?

This seller is certifiably crazy in my opinion. Do you think kool aid intoxication a disease? I wonder if there is a treatment? I suppose this seller could be made to read the Irvine Housing Blog every day. A few weeks of reading here should cure almost anyone.

A Buyer’s Market

One of the most poignant songs about the frustration and disappointment of unrequited love is Bonnie Raitt's "I Can't Make You Love Me." With a little retooling of the lyrics, it could be equally expressive of the frustration and disappointment of failing to sell a home.

Bonnie Raitt on Video

Bring down the price, bring down the rent
Let me pay back, the money I was lent
Forclose on me, for all of my buys
Just help me close, please qualify -- please qualify for me

Cause I can't make you buy me if you don't
I can't make a good deal, I owe too much on my note
I'm near a park, with beautiful flowers
I'll go way down on price, I'll re-tile the shower
but you won't, no you won't
Cause I can't make you buy me if you don't

I'll close my eyes, then I won't see
The fall of the market all around me
Foreclosure will come and I'll do what's right
I'll borrow 'til then, to the very last night
And I will give up this fight

Cause I can't make you buy me if you don't
I can't make a good deal, I owe too much on my note
I'm near a park, with beautiful flowers
I'll go way down on price, I'll re-tile the shower
but you won't, no you won't
Cause I can't make you buy me if you don't

I Can't Make You Buy Me -- IrvineRenter

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When the market turned up in the late 1990's the balance of power in the market shifted. During the last decline, the buyers had an advantage. During the bubble the advantage went to the sellers. The seller's market went on for so long and became so feverish that people have forgotten (or may never have known) what it was like to see buyers in control of the action. The purpose of this post is to re-educate buyers on how to behave in a buyer's market.

Buyers have the Power

As a buyer, you must remember you are the one in control. You are the scarce commodity in the marketplace. The seller is one of many for you to chose from, and they are all desperate. They need you. You don't need them. No matter who you buy from, you are going to leave all the other sellers disappointed because they are going to continue to be trapped in their homedebtor's prison. You can't please everyone, so focus on pleasing yourself.

Screw the Sellers

Don't become concerned with the sellers needs, wants and problems. Does it matter to you if this house is their entire savings for retirement? Do you care if a sale below a certain price puts the seller into bankruptcy? If these issues matter to you, ask yourself this, "Would you give them money if you were not buying their home?" Unless you are running a charity, you should not care about the consequences of someone else's financial decisions. They created their own problems, it is not your responsibility to solve it by overpaying for a house.

Pay the Lowest Possible Price

This may sound like common sense, but the behavior of knife catchers over the last couple of years shows otherwise. Don't ask for or take any incentives, and pay your own closing costs. You are paying for this stuff, it is just buried in your loan. You will be paying interest on this purchase for the next 30 years, and you will be paying a 1% property tax on these costs for as long as you own the house. You are far, far better off lowering the price and foregoing the incentives and paying your own closing costs.

Use a Buyer's Brokerage Like Redfin

Redfin and other buyers brokerage typically kick back 2% to you at closing. Work out a deal with them in advance where they will agree to take a 1% commission at the closing so you can lower the price by 2%. Again, you are paying taxes on the purchase price, so you want to make this as low as possible.

Your First Offer is Your Best Offer

This is the most counter-intuitive part of buying in a buyers market. Ordinarily sellers, or more accurately the seller's realtor, try to create a sense of urgency to buy the house. They want you to think other people are looking, there is going to be a bidding war, you need to get your offer in today, etc. Remember, in a buyer's market these ploys are all lies. You are the only buyer, and you can take as long as you want to buy the house. Your task in negotiating is to create a sense of urgency and panic in the seller. This is why you make your first offer your best offer.

Start with a bid at least 10% below asking price; however, it can be less if the most you are willing to pay is less. Lower your bid as follows:

• If you are actively bidding on the property, make your offers expire in 5 days. If you are still interested in the property resubmit a fractionally-lower offer after 7 days (make them sweat for 2 days.) Don't make is so much lower as to lose consideration, but make it enough lower that the seller gets the message that they need to come to your price before it gets any lower.
• If the seller makes a counter offer, retract your offer and resubmit a lower one. Works the same as the time decay offer above. After you have lowered your offer a few times, the seller may panic and take your offer before it goes any lower. This is what you are after.
• Lower your offer $500 each time you speak with the seller's realtor. Every time they communicate with you, they will pressure you to buy. Lower your bid each time they speak with you to send a message that their pressure is not working, and it is, in fact, hurting their client.
• Lower your offer $2,000 if the realtor uses one of the standard lies I mentioned above.
• If the realtor tells you there is another bidder on the property, immediately withdraw your offer and tell them to call you if it falls out of escrow with the other buyer. Since this statement from the realtor is almost certainly a lie, it will cause them to have to explain to their client why the only buyer around has pulled their offer.

Don't Close the Gap

When the seller starts to counter-offer, it is very tempting to agree to their price to close the deal, particularly if they are below your original offer. Don't do it. In a buyer's market, the seller will come to you. You have the power. However, if they are below your original offer, and if you really, really want the house, you may raise your offer one time, but do not get closer than 1% to their counter-offer. The selling broker makes a 3% commission, and the realtor you have been dealing with probably makes 1.5%. By getting to within 1% of the seller's counter-offer, the realtor can choose to give up part of their commission to make the deal. Since they are desperate as well, you should go ahead and squeeze them. A 1/2% commission is better than no commission.

After you have agreed on price

Just because you have reached agreement on the sales price does not mean you are finished making this deal the best it can be. Go through your inspection sheet and establish holdbacks for all repairs. Make the holdback amount 150% of the lowest qualified bid. Say you are doing this as an incentive for the owner to get this work done before move-in. Also, if there are decorative items you do not care for, use the same holdback procedure for these items. The time to get your granite tops is before you move in.

If you are really tough

For those of you with nerves of steel (and a desire to abuse your power,) I have a few additional suggestions for you:

• A week before closing, tell the seller or realtor you are considering pulling out of the deal because you have found another property you like. See if they offer you an additional discount.
• Three days before the closing, withdraw your offer and say you want an additional $1,000 off. Offer no explanation: You are only doing it because you can.
• Ask the seller to write you an emotional letter thanking you for purchasing their home. Send back the first one they give you saying they did not praise you enough.

Conclusion

Not everyone has what it takes to implement all of these price-busting techniques. However, the more of these you put into practice, the lower the price you will pay for the home you want. You will never see the seller or the seller's realtor ever again. It does not matter if you offend them. In the end, they will be relieved you bought the house even if you made their lives hell in the process.

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As a buyer, it is time to be upbeat. There is a song that uniquely captures the joy of finding what makes you happy: Sade's "Your Love is King." If reworked, it also captures the joy of buyers in a buyer's market.

Sade on Video

Your cash is king,
Keep you in my bank.
Your cash is king,
never need to thank.
Your diamond ring,
round and round and round my head.
Wiping all the debt from me.
It's making my soul sing.
Having the very best of things.
I'm crying out for more.

Your cash is king,
Keep you in my bank.
Your cash is king.
You're the ruler of my account.
Your diamond ring,
round and round and round my head.
Wiping all the debt from me.
It's making my soul sing.
I'm crying out for more.
Your cash is king.

I'm spending more, I'm spending.
You're making me rich, inside.

Your cash is king,
Keep you in my bank.
Your cash is king,
never need to thank.
Your diamond ring,
round and round and round my head.
Wiping all the debt from me.
It's making my soul sing.
Having the very best of things.
I'm crying out for more.

Wiping all the debt from me.
It's making my soul sing.
I'm crying out for more.
Your cash is king.

This is no bad debt
This is no sad and sorry dream.
This is no bad debt
Your cash...
your cash is real... gotta keep you in my bank,

never, never need to part,
spend me.
Never letting go,
never letting go,
never going to give it up.
I'm spending,
you're making me rich...

Your Cash is King -- IrvineRenter

Home Sales Data thru 9-18-2007

Look at those sales volume numbers. Yikes!

Lowest Priced 3/2s in Irvine

Just so you know where the leading edge of the market is...

Price: $425,000

177 Briarwood, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,150
$/Sq. Ft.: $370
Lot Size: -
Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 1978
Stories: One Level
Area: Woodbridge
County: Orange
MLS#: S486749
Status: Active
On Redfin: 139 days
Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, "* * FANTASTIC BUY * * 3 BR 2 BA single level with HUGE backyard, come see the rose garden. Great Location. Everything has been upgraded, from the neutral tiled floors to the granite counters, kitchen cabinets & appliances. 3 Large bedrooms & 2 upgraded bathrooms also with granite & newer cabinets . Newer mirror closets with organizer. It is very lite and brite and definately a 10++ Newer water heater. Walk to all the fantastic amenities, pool, spa, park, tennis, basket & volleyball, schools & shopping."

HUGE backyard. It is a freakin' patio! Give me a break.

A 10++? Maybe on a scale from 1 to 100.

" lite and brite and definately" Three misspellings in 5 words, congratulations. I hope she is thankful for the word "and."

How can realtors say stupid things like this?

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Price: $429,000

133 Oval RD #2, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,110
$/Sq. Ft.: $386
Lot Size: -
Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 1972
Stories: Two Levels
Area: El Camino Real
County: Orange
MLS#: S495498
Status: Active
On Redfin: 78 days

From Redfin, "BEST PRICED & MOST REMODELLED UNIT ON THE MARKET. BRAZILIAN CHERRY WOOD FLOORS, RECESSED LIGHTING, REFURBISHED CABINETS, NEW APPLIANCES, MAYTAG STOVE, SCRAPED CEILINGS, NEW PAINT, BRAND NEW GORGEOUS DECORATIVE BATHROOM HAS TILES/BORDER ON WALLS & GRANITE SINK. SURROUND SYSTEM IN LIVING ROOM, MASTER WITH WALK IN CLOSET & CLOSET ORGANIZERS. SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM. EXTRA STORAGE OUTSIDE. BEAUTIFUL SLATE FLOORS IN LARGE BACK PATIO. OPEN FLOORPLAN. SEE THE VIRTUAL TOUR!! PRICE REDUCED"

WHY THE ALL CAPS? I find all caps to be very hard on my eyes. It is painful to read that description.

Are any of you impressed by Brazilian Cherry Wood floors? Sounds rare and exotic, doesn't it?

Happy

Here is a little song I wrote
You might want to sing it note for note
Don't worry be happy
In every life we have some trouble
When you worry you make it double
Don't worry, be happy......

Ain't got no place to lay your head
Somebody came and took your bed
Don't worry, be happy
The land lord say your rent is late
He may have to litigate
Don't worry, be happy
Look at me I am happy
Don't worry, be happy

Don't Worry, Be Happy -- Bob Marley / Bobby McFerrin

Link to Music Video

Whether you are a renter or a homeowner, we all have our problems. Don't worry, be happy.

Asking Price: $498,900

Income Requirement: $124,725

Downpayment Needed: $99,780

Purchase Price: $509,000

Purchase Date: 8/18/2004

Address: 20 Taquitz #38, Irvine, CA 92602

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,400
$/Sq. Ft.: $356
Lot Size: -
Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 2002
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): Mountain
Area: Northpark
County: Orange
MLS#: S501493
Status: Active
On Redfin: 34 days

From Redfin, "MISSION IMPOSSIBLE TO SELL THIS FABULOUS NEWER CONDO IN 5 DAYS! Premier Location. Very Inviting Floor Plan w/ Formal Dining Area, Gourmet Kitchen Open to Entertainers Great Room. Decorator Paint, Lighting, Designer Carpet Throughout!Private Master Retreat w/ Walk-in Closet. Close to Freeways, Irvine Marketplace, New Schools. .Voted Best Neighborhood in Irvine. .. .Fabulous Value!"

THE CAPS LOCK IS BACK, AND MISSION IMPOSSIBLE IS RIGHT.

So are the exclamation points! Yippee!!!

Why the "w/"? A "w/" saves 2 characters over typing "with."

A gourmet kitchen, of course.

You think we would have embarrassed enough of these realtors to quit doing this.

BTW, I really like that dining room table. Do you think they would throw it in to close the deal? (They can keep that awful painting.) I have never seen pill bottles used as a centerpiece before. Have you? Great staging. That should help is sell in 5 days... Not.

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Another day, another 2004 rollback. Is this making you happy?

If this seller gets their asking price, they stand to lose $40,034 assuming a 6% commission. I have to imagine when this property sells, they will be able to quit worrying and be happy...

On a personal note, I imagine all of you can look back on different periods in your life when you were relatively free of worries and very happy. I am enjoying one of those periods right now. Life is good. My family life is great, and I look forward to coming home each evening. I have no debts and any of the worries that go along with it. I enjoy my work and my other productive hobbies. I have a creative outlet on this blog and the sense of community and social contact that comes with it. What more can anyone ask of life?

And so concludes another week at the Irvine Housing Blog. Come join us next week as we continue to chronicle ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’

Have a great weekend.

Run Away

Everybody's all gone
Everybody's had enough
It's gettin' ugly out
I'm so tired so tired so tired so take me home

It's getting late (getting late)
Come here and wait for me
Let's get out of this place
It never changes, it just stays the same
So take me home

(Come on, let's go)
I just wanna run away, I've had it here
I just gotta get out of here, I've had it here
I just wanna run away, I'm done with this...

Take Me Back To Your House -- Basement Jaxx

Link to Music Video

The market is getting pretty ugly right now. Do you get the feeling some of these sellers have just had enough? Over 100 days on the market after rolling prices back to 2004 levels? If I were them, I would want to run away and just be done with it.

Asking Price: $399,000

Income Requirement: $99,750

Downpayment Needed: $79,800

Purchase Price: $399,000

Purchase Date: 7/15/2004

Address: 213 Huntington, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 987
$/Sq. Ft.: $404
Lot Size: -
Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1986
Stories: One Level
Area: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: S487213
Status: Active
On Redfin: 133 days
Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, "Nice floor plan 2 Bedroom 2 Bath, with new laminate floors, master bathroom upgraded. Well kept unit. Close to UC Irvine, Close to shopping malls, restaurants, church and easy access to Hi-way 5"

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You have to make almost $100K to own a small, twenty year old, two-bedroom apartment in Irvine. Does that feel right to you?

Another 2004 rollback at the low end of the market. At 133 days on the market, they are not done lowering their price. I think we have seen enough of these to conclude the low end of the market is now at 2004 pricing and still declining. The dreams of later buyers hoping to get out at breakeven are starting to look like sad fantasies which will never come true.

If this seller gets their asking price (which seems unlikely), and they pay a 6% commission, they stand to lose $23,940. Doesn't sound like much, but this is a summer 2004 purchase. Those weren't supposed to lose money...