Since we are the Irvine Housing Blog, and since we can be unbiased (we don't take advertising dollars from realtors), we are the perfect conduit for information regarding the performance of local realtors. We are strictly acting as an information conduit -- with our own interpretation, of course. The source data can be found at OC Home Review. The OC Home Review's list of Irvine Realtors provides a ranking of realtors based on the number of active listings they currently have on the market. Since it is my opinion that this is a completely meaningless statistic, I have downloaded their information and sorted it on different criteria.
I have compiled 4 different categories of agent rankings:
- Largest Number of Sales
- Highest Sales Rate
- Lowest Sales Rate
- Dishonorable Mention
The largest number of sales is self-explanatory. The agents who are closing deals, particularly in this market environment, are doing a great job, and I wish to recognize their accomplishment here. If you want to sell your house in Irvine, these are the people you should be seeking out.
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The Highest Sales Rate is another way of looking at performance. These realtors may not take as many listings and sell as many houses, but if they take a listing, they get the job done. These are the realtors who will be able to focus more attention on your listing and make sure it sells. To make this list, the realtor must have had at least 4 listings, and sold at least 3 of those.
These final two categories are something you will only find on a website like ours. These are the lists of realtors who are not doing a good job.
There are plenty of starving realtors out there who are doing no job at all, but these lists do not include those. To make either of these lists, you have to be actively listing properties. The one thing both of these lists have in common is that the realtors are not acting in their clients best interest. These are the realtors who pandered to their clients fantasies and wishing prices and put properties on the market at prices that simply will not sell. When these sellers most needed a dose of market reality, these realtors served them kool aid.
The Lowest Sales Rate list is composed of realtors who had at least 3 market listings and less than a 25% sales rate. Basically, these people did not get the job done. A realtor's job is not to make a homeowner feel good about their property values by stroking their egos with ridiculous asking prices. A realtor's job is to sell houses -- period. Unless they are getting paid as psychologists or emotional hookers by pretend sellers, they are simply wasting everyone's time. Which leads us to our last category: Dishonorable Mention.
Dishonerable Mention is our WTF Hall of Fame -- or Hall of Infamy if you prefer. Any realtor with a listing that makes our WTF list is featured here. A realtor can be removed from the list in three ways:
- Make the Largest Number of Sales list.
- Make the Highest Sales Rate list.
- Sell the house for a purchase price within 5% of the asking price. If this occurs, we will admit we were wrong and apologize.
Other than that, they are blacklisted for life.
If you click on the agent's name in the lists below, it will lead you to a complete listing of the properties these agents represent. I clicked on some of these, particularly the poor performers, to see what was -- or wasn't -- going on. Two things jumped out at me: first, John McMonigle and Rodney Sudbeck have almost all of their listings in Turtle Ridge, and nothing is selling there; second, Lee Ann Canaday (the Sunday Morning TV Show) took on a bunch of listings in the Marquee towers, and nothing is selling there either.
Largest Number of Sales
| |
Agent Name |
Sold |
Expired |
Sold Rate |
Active |
Total Listings |
Highest Sales Rate
| |
Agent Name |
Sold |
Expired |
Sold Rate |
Active |
Total Listings |
Lowest Sales Rate
Dishonorable Mention
Paula Allen - WTF-Were-You-Thinking Prices
Mija Kim - LOL, OMG, WTF?
Marcus Garcia - Insulting Asking Prices
Brian Righetti - Edington Terrace Trifecta
Kathy Kudray - Turtle Ridge Dreamers
Joanne Chivers - Turtle Ridge Dreamers
Sheila Mayers - Turtle Ridge Dreamers
Dale Cheema - Birds of a Feather (will be removed for making highest sales rate list)
Sally Anne Sheridan - Birds of a Feather
Susan Lombardi - Happy Birthday
Michael Pickell - New Mountain High
Final Thoughts
As many of you have probably speculated, we have a number of realtors who read this blog regularly. The vast majority are lurkers who just want to be aware of what the bears are saying. Some of them may not be happy about being called out here.
Too bad.
Realtors who are doing a poor job should be called out. A spotlight should be shined on them until they perform better or get out of the profession. Perhaps a little public humiliation will cause them to change their ways. They should be happy this isn't medieval Europe. They had effective ways of dealing with problem behavior.
Bring back the stocks...
More of the same: lower volume and lower prices.
This WTF award winner just keeps on getting better. Now the property is now for lease at $25,000 a month! Anybody want to guess what the owner's carrying costs are? Personally, If I were going to spend that kind of money on rent, I would take this beachfront property in Laguna Beach, but that is just me. I don't know... Irvine tract home, beachfront in Laguna Beach... That is a tough choice...
Asking Price: $5,200,000
Purchase Price: $3,458,000
Purchase Date: 7/29/2005
Address: 25 Cobalt Sky, Irvine, CA 92603
Beds: 5
Baths: 5.5
Sq. Ft.: 5,700
Lot Sq. Ft.: 21,000
Year Built: 2005
Stories: 2
Type: Single Family Residence
View: City Lights, Mountain, Panoramic, Park or Green Belt
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Turtle Ridge
$/Sq. Ft.: $912
MLS#: S468569
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 181 days
From Redfin, "There is no lack of high quality appointments evident as you survey th is gracious home of luxury. Each room opens onto a gorgeous courtyard creating an excellent flow, perfect for entertaining. Richly appointed kitchen & nook complete with elegant cabinets, beautiful center island with top of the line slab granite countertop & state of the art stainless steel appliances. A wine cellar for the connoisseur. Beautiful backyard complete with designer inspired pool & loggia perfect for your parties."
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This property was first profiled at OC Fliptrack, but I wanted to revisit it because it is revealing of the mindset of sellers accustomed to a bull market. First, to put this price in context, lets look at the identical house available from the builder on the same street:
Price: $3,595,000
28 RESERVE
Irvine, CA 92603
Beds: 5
Baths: 5.5
Sq. Ft.: 5,699
Lot Sq. Ft.: 14,441
Year Built: 2007
Stories: 2
Type: Single Family Residence
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Turtle Ridge
$/Sq. Ft.: $631
MLS#: S451762
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 317 days
Look at these two properties. They are almost identical. What would make one seller believe he could possibly sell his home for $1,700,000 more than an identical home on the same street, particularly when the lower priced home has been on the market for almost a year?
In a bull market, prices rise because bidders constantly raise their offers. Sellers can set a price, even a ridiculous one, and know they will eventually sell because the market will come to them. These are unique properties, so the supply is very limited. This seller has reasoned that the builder will eventually sell their home, then he will have the only property on the street available for sale. Buyers will have to pay his price. This mentality might have been successful in 2004 or 2005, but right now, it makes this guy look like an idiot -- which he is.
The collapse of easy credit financing at 10 times income will stop this sale from ever occurring. Bidders simply will not be able to raise the money to buy this home. Yes, it is possible some very rich individual may simply pay cash for a home like this, but with many great estates to choose from for $5,200,000 why would they buy an Irvine tract home?
This is not exactly the worst place to be trapped by falling housing prices, but the seller should save himself the embarrassment of putting this house for sale at a ridiculous asking price. Maybe now that this post has humiliated him publicly, maybe he will take it off the market -- I doubt it, greed springs eternal.
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Hope springs eternal in the human breast;
Man never Is, but always To be blest:
The soul, uneasy and confin'd from home,
Rests and expatiates in a life to come.
-Alexander Pope,
An Essay on Man, Epistle I, 1733
Old Asking Price: $549,000
New Asking Price: $490,000
Purchase Price: $555,000
Purchase Date: 7/19/2006
Address: 609 Newcastle, Irvine, CA 92620
Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,260
Year Built: 1998
Stories: 2
Type: Condominium
View: Mountain
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Northwood
$/Sq. Ft.: $436
MLS#: P564715
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 68 days
From Redfin, "Great Location in Northwood's gated community, Spacious Kitchen with w alk-in pantry, lots of cabinets, Master Bedroom with master bath and walk-in closet, Inside laundry, Private Balcony, Close to schools, park, shops, Community Pool/Spa and much much more!!!" More exclamation points...
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This flipper didn't even bother putting in granite tops...
As you have probably noticed, the low end of the market is showing the most signs of stress. Assuming a 6% commission, this flipper stands to lose $38,940. That's almost $4,000 per month over the 10 months of ownership. Also, it probably won't sell at this price, so the expect that loss to grow.
This poor seller may have to go cry in his beer...
** Update 1 **
With the new, significantly-lowered asking price, this flipper now stands to lose $94,400 after commissions.
Rallies don't last forever, despite what realtors may say. This seller was hoping he was making hay while the sun shines, but he was late to the harvest, and now he is a 2004 rollback.
Asking Price: $599,900
Purchase Price: $600,000
Purchase Date: 6/1/2004
Address: 172 Hayward, Irvine, CA 92602
Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,588
Year Built: 2001
Stories: 3
Type: Condominium
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Northpark
$/Sq. Ft.: $378
MLS#: S479574
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 110 days
Unsold in 90+ days
From Redfin, "IMMACULATE HOME IN GATE GAURDED COMMUNITY OF NORTHPARK. .. SHOWS VERY NICE. .. UPGRADED THROUGHOUT WITH HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM, KITCHEN AND ALL BEDROOMS. .. THRIRD BEDROOM IS USED AS AN OFFICE WITH ANICE BUILT-INS. .. GOURMET KITCHEN WITH COIAN COUNTERTOP AND FULL BACK SPLASH AND GE APPLIANCES. .. . PLANTATION SHUUTERS, CLOSET ORGANIZERS AND MUCH MUCH MORE. ."
Do realtors have a spell checker? And what is an ANICE?
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I am finding more and more of these 2004 rollbacks. Assuming a 6% commission, and assuming a property that has sat on the market for 110 days sells at its asking price, this seller is going to lose $36,094 on a 2004 purchase. Do you think this person was told, "prices won't crash, they might level out for a while, but they won't actually DROP." Well, this seller seems to be stubbornly holding to the flatline. I have a news flash for them, "Prices do drop."
In Irvine, the trees are always greener, and like Lake Wobegon, "the women are strong, the men are good looking, and all the children are above average." After all, everyone wants to live here; which is, of course, why house prices will never go down in Irvine. Except maybe here...
Asking Price: $618,800
Purchase Price: $645,000
Purchase Date: 4/25/2005
Address: 4661 Green Tree Lane, Irvine, CA 92612
Beds: 3
Baths: 1.75
Sq. Ft.: 1,560
Year Built: 1969
Stories: 1
Type: Condominium
View: Other
County: Orange
Neighborhood: University Park
$/Sq. Ft.: $397
MLS#: S479186
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 105 days
Unsold in 90+ days
On Redfin, "UNBELIVERABLE PRICE , VIEW OF GREENBELT , 3 BEDROOM 1.75 BATH OPEN CATHERAL CEILING LIVING ROOM W/ INVITED FIREPLACE, FORMAL DINING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH VIEW OF YARD AND GREENBELT. MASTER BEDROOM WITH PRIVATE PATIO. U. C. IRVINE, UNIVERSITY HIGH SCHOOL ARE CLOSED BY. THIS HOME WILL BE SOLD IN 'AS IS' CONDITIONS. CALL L/A FIRST BEFORE SHOWING. THANK YOU FOR SHOWING."
""UNBELIVERABLE" I don't know if I believer it either. What is an INVITED fireplace? Did the fireplace seek permission to come visit? Is it staying? Nice to know things are CLOSED by. And thank you for the ALL CAPS as it makes the description it so easy to read... not.
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The lack of a second full bathroom is a problem, but there are no other factors working against this place other than the general market environment. This property is in a nice in-tract location very close to the school, the community park, and the large community pool.
This property has been on the market for 105 days at a price lower than its 2005 purchase price. The price will need to come down further to have a sale. If this seller gets their asking price, they will still face a loss of $63,328 assuming a 6% commission. The loss will probably be closer to $100,000.
The rollbacks have clearly gone past 2005, and we are now in 2004 territory. These rollbacks are getting easier to find.
Now his life is full of wonder but his heart still knows some fear
Of a simple thing he cannot comprehend
Why they try to tear the mountains down to bring in a couple more
More people, more scars upon the land
John Denver -- Rocky Mountain High
Link to YouTube Video
I found a listing with an American Flag to celebrate our nation's birthday:
Asking Price: $1,435,000
Purchase Price: $620,000
Purchase Date: 3/15/2002
Address: 19502 Sierra Nuevo Road, Irvine, CA 92603
Beds: 4
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,011
Lot Sq. Ft.: 12,000
Year Built: 1971
Stories: 1
Type: Single Family Residence
View: Park or Green Belt
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Turtle Rock
$/Sq. Ft.: $714
MLS#: P585457
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 1 day
New Listing (24 hours)
From Redfin, "WOW, magnificant dream setting with one of a kind lot. Over 1/4 acre of land in Turtle Rock. Accross from HOA park and pool. All new appliances, beautifully remodeled throughout. New windows and doors. Walk to award winning schools. This kind of house and lot are rarely available. "
Did you see that enormous lot? It was over 1/4 of an acre! WOW! That's an estate, isn't it. magnificant!
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Are you kidding me? We have area comps going for less than 2004 and 2005 prices, but somehow this house has appreciated 131% since 2002. Even by Turtle Rock standards, $714 / SF is ridiculous.
For drinking way too much kool aid, for getting high on greed, and for having the nerve to list at an obscene price, the sellers at 19502 Sierra Nuevo Road win our WTF Award.
Happy Birthday America. Yes, I know it is a day early, but I didn't want any of you to miss this listing because you were out enjoying your holiday activities. I would also like to wish this listing a happy birthday. It is more than one year on the market.
Highest Asking Price: $2,100,000
Current Asking Price: $1,980,000
Purchase Price: $742,000
Purchase Date: 11/7/2003
Address: 5512 Sierra Roja Road, Irvine, CA 92603
Beds: 5
Baths: 4
Sq. Ft.: 3,600
Lot Sq. Ft.: 5,833
Year Built: 1970
Stories: 2
Type: Single Family Residence
View: Hills
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Turtle Rock
$/Sq. Ft.: $583
MLS#: S446818
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 369 days
Unsold in 90+ days
On Redfin, "Custom home rebuilt- High quality building materials include crown mouldings, stone flooring, Dramatic entry, Large Dining Room, gourmet kitchen, walk-in pantry, granite, stainless steel appliances, convection double ovens, stone work, recessed lighting, A/C and heating. Giant Master Bedroom, walk-in closet-fabulous bathroom forever hill view. .award winning schools (university high)NO MELLO ROOS-LOW ASSN $91.00/MO -OWNER ANXIOUS. .JUST COMPLETED"
I'll bet the owner is ANXIOUS. Perhaps they could lower their anxiety by lowering the price a bit more...
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This listing needs to be nominated for the WTF Hall of Fame. I have never seen a listing that left me so perplexed, so speechless that my mind can't even comprehend it...
I am in such shock, I can't even find the energy for a rant...
I sit here staring at the computer, my mouth dropped in disbelief...
I see the asking price; I see the purchase price, and it just does not compute...
O
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Is this listing for real? I need to check another source... Zip Realty... There it is... That is really the asking price...
(after 10 minutes to compose myself...)
I need to create a new category for this listing. What do you call a price that is even beyond WTF? This seller is clearly suffering from a kool aid overdose.
This seller is locked in a housing bubble time warp. This listing hit the market on June 24, 2006, almost the exact peak of the bubble here in Orange County. It appears to be empty, so add a year's worth of carrying costs to the investment cost. You would think after failing to sell for a whole year -- a year which saw declining home prices -- this seller might consider lowering the price a bit. Personally, I think it might be a tough sale even if the asking price were cut in half, but what do I know?
This is pure speculation on my part, but a couple of weeks ago when I profiled Turtle Ridge, there were a couple of new posters who seemed to take issue with my analysis. One of these posters has the same first name as the owner of this Turtle Rock property: Coincidence? Let's judge by the comments.
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I wish to offer special thanks to JoonB who emailed me about this property, and to squareround for the complete pricing data below:
5512 SIERRA ROJA ROAD, Irvine, CA 92603**
Price Reduced: 10/17/06 — $1,850,000 to $1,795,000
Price Reduced: 12/05/06 — $1,795,000 to $1,749,999
Price Reduced: 03/27/07 — $1,749,999 to $1,685,000
Price Reduced: 05/10/07 — $1,685,000 to $1,625,000
Price Increased: 06/27/07 — $1,625,000 to $2,100,000
Price Reduced: 06/28/07 — $2,100,000 to $1,980,000
Sale Price: $655,000
** SALE UPDATE **
This house sold on 6/1/2007 for $655,000. This was one of our first identified rollbacks, and the sale price proves it. If the seller paid a 6% commission, they lost a total of $59,300.
As I had speculated below, the other property at 3 Del Mar has reduced the asking price significantly. This property likely will become a rollback as well.
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Asking Price: $690,000
Purchase Price: $675,000
Purchase Date: 9/23/2004
Address: 8 Del Mar #4, Irvine, CA 92602
Beds: 3
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.*: 1,601
Year Built: 2002
Stories: 2
Type: Condominium
Neighborhood: Northpark
$/Sq. Ft.*: $431
MLS: S479457
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 43 days
2006, gone! 2005, gone! We are looking at a buyer from 2004 who will be selling at a loss in Northpark. If our seller gets their asking price (unlikely) assuming a 6% commission, they will lose $26,400.
From Redfin: "Move right in to this charming 3 bedroom 2 1/2 bath detached home. The gourmet kitchen has granite countertop and backsplash, cherrywood cabinets, built-in wine cooler and stainless steel appliances. There's a fireplace and built-in media niche in the livingroom. The master bedroom has a walk-in closet and a jacuzzi bathtub. Relax and enjoy a cool drink in the comfortable low maintenance side yard. Convenient upstairs laundry. Stainless steel refrigerator and washer/dryer are included."
This is a nice, updated property. It is still pretty expensive at $431 / SF, but it is a value relative to the pricing in Northpark. Compare it to this property:
Old Asking Price: $870,000
New Asking Price: $769,000
Purchase Price: $750,000
Purchase Date: 4/27/2005
Address: 3 Del Mar, Irvine, CA 92602
Beds: 3
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.*: 1,813
Year Built: 2002
Stories: 2
$/Sq. Ft.*: $480
MLS: I703772
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 55 days
This seller / flipper wants $180,000 more for a house that isn't updated. Since this house is empty, and the comps are about to flatten him, I suspect this seller will find the motivation for some significant asking price reductions. Also, look out for it being offered as a rental -- a sign of deep denial.
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May 2007 saw the reasonably-well publicized departure of David Lereah as "Chief Economist" of the National Association of Realtors. To understate the point, Mr. Lereah has been the object of plenty of attention in the housing blog community. Most of the attention was negative, and resulted from the frustration of repeatedly seeing and hearing him quoted in the mainstream media as something of an impartial expert regarding the condition of the housing market. Perhaps not surprisingly, Mr. Lereah tended toward the positive in his interpretation of housing sales data and future predictions, even when signs of weakness began to appear in the market. This must-see graph captures some of his better quotes, and when he offered them.
For those that didn't explore the first link, Mr. Lereah published a book in early 2005 entitled "Are you missing the Real Estate Boom? Why home values and other real estate investments will climb through the end of the decade- and how you can profit from them."
In 2006, this book was retitled "Why the Real Estate Boom will not bust- and how you can profit from it. How to build wealth in today's expanding real eastate market."
It is therefore interesting and amusing to see Mr. Lereah change the spin on his way out the door, and begin to apply some revisionist history. In this interview with Bob Brinker from early May, he even goes so far as to chastise the "speculators who strayed from fundamentals...and got us in trouble."
David Lereah Interview
[audio:http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/DavidLereah.mp3]
If you want to skip ahead, his comments regarding Southern California arrive just after the 13 minute mark. Here are the highlights:
"L.A., San Diego, they are all out of whack right now. Prices got too high for the median household...there's going to be a long period here, of recovery. Homesellers have been stubborn, they haven't been reducing their prices as fast as their Northeast counterparts. Home sales are way down right now, and it will take price decreases- sellers lowering their prices- to bring buyers back to the marketplace. I suspect we're not going to see any type of recovery there until at least 2008."
While these decidedly negative comments may not sound particularly surprising to many of us, they are coming from the most prominent market cheerleader of the past several years, bar-none. The 'soft landing' holdouts may find this particularly sobering (and they should).
Despite this apparent dose of rationality, David still makes some bizarre remarks that are worth listening for:
- If speculators wouldn't have come in to Vegas...
- Commissions are Commissions
- The baseball team the could save D.C. real estate
- Fingers and toes crossed, X2
Bob didn't exactly give him a tough interview, but having David on the hook for more than a glib, obfuscated single quote was worth it to me.
It will be interesting to see how David's heir apparent, Lawrence Yun, does carrying the torch as the market continues to correct, unwind, fall apart, or whatever you want to call it. Donning the skirt and waving the pom poms will require even more gumption in the months ahead.
