Avenue One - Competing With the Builder - Update #2

May 11th, 2007 by zovall 

Originally posted October 18, 2006

Avenue One is a condo development built in 2006 by K. Hovnanian Homes located off Jamboree and DuPont. It is/will be surrounded by the Toscana apartments, the Watermarke condos, The Plaza, and 3000 The Plaza. The location is very convenient if you're single and have a job nearby. But it'll definitely be a while before Jamboree can be compared to the Wilshire corridor.

In MLS, there are currently 5 Avenue One homes listed for sale by flippers:

The Plans that end in 'L' have a loft and are on the 4th floor. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find the purchase prices for any of these condos. But I'm sure some of these flippers will lose money. Click on the address to see the actual MLS listing. You'll be suprised at what some of the original asking prices were. You know the flippers were thinking 'I'll buy in the first phase and then make a ton of money as the builder raises prices in subsequent phases'. Well the builder isn't on their side and has actually listed several properties on MLS (yup, the builder is offering agents 3% to bring in a buyer):

Why would anyone buy from the flippers if they can get a BRAND NEW home from the builder for LESS??? If you look at the actual MLS listings for the builder listed homes, you'll see that the builder has been reducing their asking prices as well. They need to sell these homes and will lower the prices until they are all sold. What's a flipper to do?

UPDATE #1 - November 16, 2006

It's been about a month since the original post and I thought it would be interesting to see how the pricing at Avenue One has changed. Here's a look at what's currently available for sale by flippers:

  • 2119 Scholarship - Plan 1B - 1/1 - 602 sq ft - 86 DOM - $429,999
  • 2310 Scholarship - Plan 1A - 1/1 - 725 sq ft - 83 DOM (+180) - $437,000
  • 2406 Scholarship - Plan 1CL - 1/1 - 923 sq ft - 42 DOM - $615,000
  • 2302 Scholarship - Plan 2A - 2/2 - 1037 sq ft - 15 DOM (+43) - $568,000
  • 2402 Scholarship - Plan 2AL - 2/2 - 1213 sq ft - 147 DOM - $654,900
  • 2172 Scholarship - Plan 2? - 2/2 - 1100 sq ft - 0 DOM - $569,000
  • 2418 Scholarship - Plan 2AL - 2/2 - 1213 sq ft - 2 DOM - $714,900

You'll notice that NONE of the flippers lowered their prices from a month ago. Also, there is more competition as another 2 properties were just listed by flippers in the last couple days. Now let's take a look at the properties available directly from the builder:

  • 1231 Scholarship - Plan 1B - 1/1 - 602 sq ft - 148 DOM - $369,990
  • 1150 Scholarship - Plan 1A - 1/1 - 725 sq ft - 80 DOM - $376,990
  • 1418 Scholarship - Plan 3AL - 3/2 - 1538 sq ft - 52 DOM - $725,990
  • 1334 Scholarship (SOLD on 10/23 for $545,990)

The builder lowered prices on ALL their properties: the 1 bedroom models were lowered by $20,000 and the 3 bedroom model was reduced by $15,000. Not much right? But think about what that's doing to the flippers who are trying to sell. Wouldn't you rather buy a Brand New home from the builder and save $60k-$70k versus buying the same plan from a flipper?

Oh and guess what? The builder is now offering **5%** (that's an increase from the 3% they offered only a month ago) to agents to bring in a buyer. So if anyone reading this is interested in buying a unit from the builder, make sure you negotiate AT LEAST 5% off their asking price. (For those that don't want to do the calc.. that means, right now, you can get 1231 Scholarship for $351,490, 1150 Scholarship for $358,140, and 1418 Scholarship for $689,690.)

UPDATE #2 - May 11, 2007

It's been almost 7 months since this was originally posted. Here's an update in the tract:

Out of the 7 properties listed by flippers in the November update, none have yet sold. 4 are no longer on the market:

  • 2119 Scholarship - Plan 1B - 1/1 - 602 sq ft - $429,999, $399,900
  • 2310 Scholarship - Plan 1A - 1/1 - 725 sq ft - $437,000, $434,500
  • 2406 Scholarship - Plan 1CL - 1/1 - 923 sq ft - $615,000
  • 2418 Scholarship - Plan 2AL - 2/2 - 1213 sq ft - $714,900

3 are still on the market (2 with reduced prices):

Joining them are 4 more units put up by flippers:

Now, let's see what happened with the 3 units that the builder had available as of the November update:

  • 1231 Scholarship - Plan 1B - 1/1 - 602 sq ft - 223 DOM - Sold for $369,990 on 2/26/2007
  • 1150 Scholarship - Plan 1A - 1/1 - 725 sq ft - 138 DOM - Sold for $376,990 on 1/29/2007
  • 1418 Scholarship - Plan 3AL - 3/2 - 1538 sq ft - 181 DOM - Sold for $695,000 on 4/19/2007

All 3 of the builder's units eventually sold. There is one more available from the builder currently:

In total, there are 8 units currently on the market (7 by flippers, 1 by the builder). Any guesses on which sells first?


Posted in Flips

Home Sales Data thru 4-18-2007

May 10th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

Median Sales Price Data 4-18-2007

Let's see...

92612 had a big jump in sales and a 7.8% reduction in sales price. Some of this is due to the condos on Jamboree. Are sales improving there?

92606 looks similar to 92612. As a general rule, increasing sales at decreasing prices is a sign of panic selling.

All the other zip codes show dismal sales and falling prices. This is characteristic of market denial. Sellers want more than buyers can or will pay, so volume drops off and the few sales that do occur bring prices down. This shows the market is not stabilizing. We need increasing volumes and steady or rising prices for things to look good.

Anybody see it differently? Any bullspin for us?


Posted in News

Patron Saint of Flippers?

Saint James FrontSaint James Kitchen

Asking Price: $637,900

Purchase Price: $610,000

Purchase Date: 1/24/2005

or

Purchase Price: $566,200

Purchase Date: 3/21/2006

Address: 96 Saint James #80, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 3IrvineRenter
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.: 1,660
Year Built: 2001
Stories: 2
Type: Condominium
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Walnut
$/Sq. Ft.: $384
MLS#: U6602629
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 258 days

MLS#: U6603874

Saint JamesFrom Redfin, "Just Reduced!!! Don't Wait!!! Sellers Says Bring All Offers! Vacant Go Direct! Best Value in Park Lane - Walnut area of Irvine. Gated. Beautiful. Community Pool/Spa Area - Pristine. End Unit, Like New, 3 Bdrm 2.5 Ba, Single Family Detached Condo, MUST SEE!!! 2 Stry, 2 Car Dtched Garage, w/ great private rear and side yard. This is a Winner and will not last. This home sold As-Is w/ NO Warranties of Anykind."

This appears to be listed twice, and it has been on the market for a very long time. It is difficult to tell from the property records what is going on with this property. The records show the last sale on 1/24/2005, but Redfin shows the last one on 3/21/2006. Perhaps the last one was the bank taking back the property as the current owners is listed as GMAC Mortgage Corporation. They have a $488,000 first and a $122,000 second on the property for a combined loan balance of $610,000. Another 100% financing deal gone bad. What a surprise. Has the bank had this on the market as an REO for over a year without reducing its price?

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Saint James is the patron saint of pilgrims (trivia fact for the day). There are a great many flippers in this neighborhood who are hoping Saint James can double as their patron saint. There are 4 properties within a block purchased in the last year, and there are more than a dozen purchased in this neighborhood. I suspect these are not all long-term homeowners. These properties are newer, and although they are small, they are 3/2s, so families may find being trapped here livable. In short, the prices here may hold out a bit longer. They will collapse after the prices of transitory housing (2 bedrooms and under).

Maybe they should all pray to Saint Joseph, the patron saint of real estate.


Posted in Flips

Brookside Comp Killer

May 9th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

Brookside Front

Asking Price: $699,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $830,000

Purchase Date: 11/17/2006

Address: 4342 Brookside St., Irvine, CA 92604-2237

Beds: 4
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 2,200Knife Catcher Award
Lot Sq. Ft.: 5,623
Year Built: 1971
Stories: 2
Type: Single Family Residence
Neighborhood: West Irvine
$/Sq. Ft.: $318
MLS#: P575245
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 5 days

From Redfin " THIS IS A SHORT SALE. ALL TERMS, SALE PRICE, AND COMMISSION ARE SUBJECT TO LENDERS'S APPROVAL."

This is how prices come down.

When short sales and REO's are more the rule than the exception, prices will fall. Zillow thinks this property is worth $853,413. A sale for less than $700,000 will certainly lower the comps in this neighborhood. How many does it take before a new, lower value is established?

This knife-catcher gave up after only 6 months. Redfin shows the purchase price as $820,000, but property records show it as $830,000. Since this is probably a first payment default, I suspect fraud. The sale prior to the 11/17/2006 was on 3/15/2005 for $735,000, so it is possible the 11/17/2006 buyer was a straw buyer saving our previous flipper. As you can see, even without any commissions, the bank is going to lose $131,000. Factor in even a 3% commission, and the bank is going to lose $151,970.

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PMC Bancorp "A leader in Prime and Alt-A mortgage banking" is the bagholder on this one. They have a $622,500 first mortgage and a $200,000 second. With the second mortgage being a total loss, you can see why lenders have stopped issuing them. The days of the 80/20 loan package are numbered.

I wonder who owns the Mercedes Benz in the driveway, or is my identification in error? 1. Starving Realtor? 2. Bagholding Banker? 3. Failed Straw-man Flipper? 4. Rescued Flipper?


Posted in Flips

Your Buyer’s Loan Terms

May 7th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

IrvineRenterOver the last several years, buyers have not concerned themselves with the day they were going to become sellers. Why would they? There was an endless demand for properties, and buyers were going to pay whatever was asked. Those days are gone. They are not coming back any time soon.

In one of my first posts, I talked about Financially Conservative Home Financing. There has been much discussion on these boards about the high debt-to-income ratios and adjustable rate mortgage terms now required if you chose to buy in today's market. For anyone considering buying a home right now, I would like you to think about the buyer who is going to buy your home from you at some point in the future, and more specifically, what debt-to-income ratio and loan terms will this buyer utilize. This is important, because the amount of money this take-out buyer will pay you for your home is completely dependent upon these variables. Your house is only worth what your buyer can pay for it. For you to get out at breakeven or better, your take-out buyer must be leveraged more aggressively than you are, or you must wait for fundamental valuations to catch up to today's pricing. In this post, I will examine both scenarios, and I will present a range of valuations for homes based today's income and prospects for the future.

Fundamental Valuations

As a primer, please read How Inflated are House Prices? In that post I discuss a simple method to calculate a house's fundamental valuation. In short, 160 times the monthly rental rate is a useful number. The monthly rental rate can be calculated as follows: Median Income / 12 (months) x debt-to-income ratio = monthly payment = monthly rental rate. For example, in Irvine in 2006, the Median Income was $83,891 / 12 = $6,990 monthly median income. Financial planners (and your banker) will tell you not to put more than 28% of your gross income toward housing (Realtors will tell you to put 55% or more if that is what it takes.) Assuming a more rational 28% debt-to-income ratio, the median monthly payment (and thereby the median rent) is $1,957. Based in a 160 multiplier, the median house price should be $313,120 or 3.7 times earnings. Since the borrower should have a 20% downpayment, it can be argued that the median home price should be $375,744.

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So how does all the above compare to reality? The median rent in Irvine is $1,660. This is going to include many 1 and 2 bedroom apartments and very little at 4 bedrooms and above. The housing stock in Irvine is generally larger and nicer than the rental units, so a median house rental of $1,957 is probably not too far off. If you go to OCRealEstateFinder or FirstTeam and search for rentals, you will find what I would consider a median type property renting between $2,250 and $2,500 a month. This means that most Irvine renters are probably spending more like 35% of their gross income on housing instead of the suggested 28%. So if you recalculate the theoretical median based on $2,500 a month, the median home price should be $400,000; add a 20% downpayment, and the median could be as high as $480,000. The last statistics I saw for the Irvine median home price was $687,000: No reasonable metric can be constructed to justify that price.

Fundamental Value Table

As you can see from the discussion above, there is a range of values which can be used as a "reasonable" fundamental valuation. For the sake of simplicity, I am going to use $360,000 which is the number I used in the post Predictions for the Irvine Housing Market.

Debt-to-Income Ratios

The table below shows the impact of debt-to-income ratio on house price.

Debt To Income Table

As you can see, the current debt-to-income ratio in Irvine is 60.8%. Even if you assumed ever buyer is puttting 20% down (which is laughable), the DTI ratio is 50.1%. Remember this is gross income; as a percentage of take-home pay, the number is much higher. Will your buyer be willing to spend that much of their income on housing?

Amortization

The above table shows the DTI assuming a 30-year conventional mortgage. Only 20% of loan originations in Orange County were conventional mortgages in 2006. People have bid prices up using interest-only and negative amortization loans. The table below shows the impact of these loan terms.

Amortization Value Table

This is where the action is. There are many factors which contributed to this bubble, but it is the combination of these loans with Southern California’s Cultural Pathology that really made this bubble happen. The biggest gamble current buyers are taking is the availability of future financing options. If defaults continue to increase at the current rate, these products will likely be eliminated: the banks are losing to much money. Will these loan terms be available for your future buyer?

Interest Rates

Mortage interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages with no points are running about 6.4%. This is about 20% less than the historical average of 8% for home mortgages.

Interest Rate Table

As you can see from the above table. The higher interest rates go, the less a borrower can finance utilizing the same payment. If interest rates go up from the current 6.4% to the normal 8%, buyers will be able to bid 15% less than previously; therefore, house values will decline 15% as a result. If interest rates spike to 10%, house values decline 30%. What will interest rates be when your buyer wants to buy your house?

Appreciation over Time

I will use an appreciation rate of 3% to reflect the normal growth of wages and rental rates. It can be argued that appreciation will be higher, but it can also be argued that Appreciation is Dead.

Appreciation Table

Fundamental valuations are directly tied to wage growth. How much money will the buyer of your house be making in the future?

Future Value Table

Pulling together all of the above variables is a challenge. Below is a table which attempts to do so. Please click on the table to enlarge.

Future Value Full Table

To make it easier to read and follow, I have broken down the above table into three sections based on the DTI ratio of your future buyer.

Future Value 28% DTI Table

The most likely scenario is that your future buyer will pay from the second column in the above table. A 28% DTI is not just advisable, it may become a limit imposed by lenders -- liar loans and high DTI ratios cause defaults and may be eliminated. Interest rates will likely climb back to their 50-year historical average of 8%. Notice that today's median home price is not reached in the 29 years shown on this chart if interest rates rise.

Future Value 32.2% DTI Table

If you believe the "sun tax" is alive and well in Southern California, and you believe lenders will allow DTI's in excess of 28% in the future, future values may be found in the above chart. This DTI is what house renters are currently paying in Irvine.

Future Value 60.8% DTI Table

Of course, there are those who believe we have reached a permanently high plateau, and buyers will continue to either utilize exotic financing or put 60% or more of their income toward housing (You have to believe those things to think prices can appreciate from current levels.) If you believe these conditions will persist, or occur again in a future bubble, then the above chart is for you. Who knows, maybe those of us who buy at the bottom can sell at these prices at the top of the next bubble...

Don't get greedy.

Think about what terms and conditions your buyer will face, and you may save yourself a lot of problems today. Right now the market has been pushed up to unsustainable heights, and it will fall. Don't buy when the conditions are not favorable. If interest rates are low, debt-to-income ratios are high, and exotic financing is the norm, it is a bad time to buy. You want to purchase when credit is tight and values are depressed -- this is coming soon. Be patient and wait for the conditions to be right because you want your buyer to buy from you when credit is loose and prices are inflated. Remember, your house is only worth what your buyer will pay for it.

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P.S. If you want to run this spreadsheet for yourself, below is a link. You can input your own income and house price assumptions and see what happens.

Buyer’s Loan Terms


Posted in Analysis

Irvine’s Woodbridge

May 5th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

Woodbridge Sign

Woodbridge is a large community in the heart of Irvine. Started in 1975 and completed in the early 1990's, the community covers approximately four square miles bounded by Culver, Irvine Center Drive, Jeffrey and the 405. It is one of Irvine's premier neighborhoods.

Woodbridge Map

Woodbridge is bisected into two residential segments, called North Lake and South Lake, by a broad stripe of retail, commercial and institutional development between Alton and Barranca. The lakes are between three and six feet deep and each is crossed by a large wooden footbridge, owing the village its name. A four-lane circular loop road, Yale Loop, runs around the interior of Woodbridge, connecting all its housing blocks and major streets. The village is walled off from the rest of Irvine by a row of pine trees and a continuous, 20-foot-high Privet hedge.

Yale Loop Home 2

In Great Streets by Allan B. Jacobs (MIT Press), Pinewood (street name) on the Northern edge of the village off of the Yale Loop, is cited as one of the great "new urban" streets. The houses of Yale Loop and the wall and hedge which surround the development act as a shield to disguise the high-density residential products which are situated between them.

Yale Loop Home 4

The design concept works very well. A casual observer seeing Woodbridge comes to believe the entire community is composed of large single family residential homes giving Woodbridge a high-end veneer.

Yale Loop Home 3

Woodbridge, for the most part, is uniformly designed in a New England Cape Cod style, creating a classical seaside village feel. Shed style houses are also abundant in Woodbridge.

Woodbridge Home 1

Even the more modest homes are very well maintained and show real pride of ownership.

Woodbridge Home 2

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Woodbridge Home 4

Woodbridge Home 3

Residents who really "know" Woodbridge will tell you there is a hierarchy of desirability radiating outward from the center. Neighborhoods closer to the lakes have larger homes and are more desirable. People in this area are the creme de la creme, and they defecate without odor.

Ducks on North Lake

Those who live outside the loop are the "wannabes" who really aren't worthy of Woodbridge's aura of greatness. You must pardon my facetious banter, but I was given a very similar description by a long-time resident. Interesting that even within one of Irvine's best neighborhoods, the competition to put oneself above others is notable.

Woodbridge HELOC

A Lexus and a BMW. A HELOC perhaps? No, everyone in Irvine makes enough money to afford a big house and two luxury cars...Woodbridge Street 1

There are other attractive streets in Woodbridge...

Woodbridge Street 2

Woodbridge Street 3

Each one of Woodbridge's lakes has a "beach club" next to it, where there is a "lagoon" (a sand-surrounded fresh-water swimming pool that empties into the lake), a dock facility to rent pedal boats, kayaks, canoes, sailboats, and hydro-bikes.

North Lake View 2

Swimming is prohibited in the lakes, but many people swim or fall off of their boats into the water. The beach clubs also have two volleyball courts each. South lake has a recreation room and a snack shop in it also, which is only open at certain times throughout the year.

Northlake Swim Area

There are also two "swim clubs," Stonecreek and Bluelake, on each side of Woodbridge. These have lifeguards all day 10-10 during summer, and weekends 10-5 during the winter. Stonecreek has a two-meter diving board, and Bluelake has a one meter and a three meter diving board. The Woodbridge swim teams are based out of Stonecreek. Woodbridge is home to Woodbridge High School.

Woodbridge High School

Twenty-four tennis courts, twenty of which are lit for night play, pathways, bikeways, and a plethora of recreational parks within the four square miles make Woodbridge a community of interest to young families as well as retirees who enjoy outdoor activities. Its community tennis club regularly trains young players who are ranked in the first hundred in their USTA age group.

Woodbridge Tennis

There are four elementary schools (there used to be a fifth, an alternative school, Alderwood, which got moved to Quail Hill), two middle schools, and Woodbridge High School.

Woodbridge School 1

Woodbridge School 2

One of the weaknesses of Woodbridge is the lack of a strong commercial gathering place. There isn't a suburban plaza in Woodbridge that is very successful. The Woodbridge Community Center has been recently renovated because many of the retail businesses left and have been replaced by high end office tenants.

Woodbridge Community Center

There are other successful retail centers in Woodbridge, but none with a good suburban plaza. The center on Jeffrey and Alton has a suburban plaza which is designed correctly to be successful, but it is across from the successful Oak Creek suburban plaza and for whatever reason, it has not done as well.

Woodbridge Community Center 2

In my opinion, the best public space in Woodbridge is the southern half of North Lake. This section of north lake is adjacent to the semi-successful community center, and it is connected with a walkway over Barranca Parkway.

North Lake 2

There is a unique children's tot lot which juts out into the lake on the north side of the bridge. This play area is a bit unnerving when your children are very young because it is so close to the water, but when your children are a bit more self-sufficient, it is a great place to sit and enjoy the lake while they play nearby. (Notice the little girl chasing the ducks.)

North Lake 3

North lake is beautiful.

North Lake 4

Toy sailboating, anyone?

North Lake 5

The gazebo is the lakes focal point.

North Lake 6

Fine dining at the Waters.

North Lake 7

Canadian Geese...

North Lake 8

Children feeding the ducks...

North Lake 9

A framed view of the distant mountains.

Woodbridge Seniors

Woodbridge is a community of all ages.

Woodbridge Senior Center

The Senior's Center is first rate.

South Lake

Don't forget South Lake. It is nice too.

North Lake 1

South lake looking north from Yale Loop.

Woodbridge Gardens

A community garden plot place in a retention basin.

Woodbridge Activities

There is a wide variety of activities.

Woodbridge Park 1

There are a great many parks and pools...

Woodbridge Park 2

This one is heated year round.

Woodbridge Park 3

Woodbridge Park 4

Woodbridge Park 5

Woodbridge Park 6

Anyone play horseshoes?

Woodbridge Park 7

Woodbridge Park 8

Woodbridge Park 9
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Woodbridge Park 10

Woodbridge Park 11

Woodbridge Park 12
Woodbridge Park 13

My "Irvine" day was full of playing with the family between taking pictures. This style and quality of life is what makes Irvine such a unique place. I thoroughly enjoyed creating this community profile.

Irvine's Woodbridge: a great place to live.

North Lake 10

If you liked the pictures above, see what the pros can do. Check out:

Hidden Woodbridge

Woodbridge North Lake


Posted in Community Profile

Housing Bubble Humor

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Signs of Desperation

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Housing Bubble Mr. Housing Bubble

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Posted in News

The City of Lights

May 4th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

Siene FrontSiene Kitchen

Asking Price: $899,000

Purchase Price: $897,000

Purchase Date: 7/5/2006

Address: 15361 Siene Circle, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 5IrvineRenter
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 2,982
Lot Sq. Ft.: 7,995
Year Built: 1969
Stories: 2
Type: Single Family Residence
View: Park or Green Belt
Neighborhood: El Camino Real
$/Sq. Ft.: $301
MLS#: S484070
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 11 days

Redfin, Zillow

From Redfin, "Almost 8000 square feet lot in the center of Irvine. Prized end of cul -de-sac location backs up to greenbelt-lots of privacy!Park-like yard that includes a large patio with fire pit. Family room with fireplace, . No mello-roos, no HOA. Surroounded by greenbelt, park, & tennis courts. With nearby college & golf course. Newly remodeled with granite counter tops, new light fixtures, new carpet, travertine, and hardwood floor. New paint, sinks & faucets, new vinyle windows, scraped texture ceiling."

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El Camino Real is one of the most "tractlike" neighborhoods in Irvine. There is a lack of parks, play areas and pools. It is probably the best value on a dollars-per-square-foot basis as there is little else to bring people to the neighborhood. As the description mentions, there are a few beltway greenspaces where they preserved the old windrows from the agricultural operation. Those neighborhood criticisms aside, this property is nice and updated albeit a bit old.

Siene River

Eiffel Tower at Sunset - Seine River, Paris

This property appears to be owned by a local realtor; either that or the owner coincidentally has the same name. This property is shown as one of her "featured listings" for $949,000. The property is empty, so it appears to be a flip that is bleeding cash. The seller has a first mortgage for $717,600 and a second for $89,700 through Countrywide. With a combined debt of $807,300 (and likely a 3% commission), the seller has some room to negotiate how much she is going to lose before this becomes a short sale. It doesn't look like this flip will be financing any trips to Paris. Seine Circle is as close to the Siene as this seller will get.

Siene Painting

The Siene at Courbevoie - 1885, Georges Pierre Seurat


Posted in Flips

Glen Garden Homes in Turtle Rock

May 3rd, 2007 by zovall 

Address: 25 Rainbow Falls, Irvine, CA 92603 (Turtle Rock)
Plan: 1572 sq ft - 3/2
MLS: S472630 DOM: 101
Sale History: 5/20/2005: $725,000
1/8/2003: $490,000
Price Reduced: 03/13/07 -- $798,000 to $789,000
Price Reduced: 03/14/07 -- $789,000 to $778,000
Price Reduced: 03/22/07 -- $778,000 to $760,000
Current Price: $760,000

It looks like this is the first property in the village of Turtle Rock to be featured on our blog. Turtle Rock is the original hilly village of Irvine and in the future, we may do a Community Profile on it. This Plan E in the Glen Garden Homes tract was purchased in May of 2005 and then listed on the market early this year for $798k. After a month and a half, the seller started reducing the price. 3 reductions later brings us to the current asking price of $760,000.

If sold at the current asking price and assuming 6% in selling costs, the owner will lose about $10,000. When this home was listed on 1/22/07, there were about 900 properties for sale in Irvine; now there are close to 1200!

There is only one other property that I see for sale in this tract:

Here's the description for 12 Cool Brook: "Want a 'Hot Deal'? This is it! This is a Turtle Rock estate sale that has been a rental. Seller priced it $120,000 below our competition for a fast sale. Most buyers will want to update paint, carpet, and flooring. The low price and unbeatable location far outweighs the need for TLC. Cul-de-sac location, backing to a greenbelt hillside. Move fast, going going gone."

And the private remarks for 12 Cool Brook: "Seller will provide a termite clearance, otherwise the home is being sold as-is. Seller has not lived in the property and acquired the property by inheritance."

Sure enough, it was priced well and the status in MLS is now 'Accepting Backup Offers'. 12 Cool Brook has been on the market for 15 days (compare that to the 101 DOM for 25 Rainbow Falls).

As some of you may know, I'm a big fan of the Turtle Rock area. Did anyone have a chance to check out 12 Cool Brook? Once this property closes escrow, I imagine it'll be harder for 25 Rainbow Falls to sell at the $760k price.


Posted in Flips

Protestors trouble Liarnar Homes

May 2nd, 2007 by graphrix 

Saturday I received a phone call from a friend that went like this: "Hey do you know why there are people protesting Liarnar at Riverbend? They have a big ole sign that says buyer beware of Liarnar Homes." I said, "Probably because they build crappy homes." Now I wasn't sure that was going to be the case because it is a much better story when it's the FBer's protesting the price reductions. Like a good blogger I decided to go check it out for myself and here is what I found.

protestors.jpg

Sure enough the protestors were local 2361 carpenter union members letting people know that Liarnar builds crappy homes. Unfortunately the gentleman in the picture wouldn't say much but he did give me the flyer below and the business card for an attorney. He said the attorney would be more than willing to give me more information. I called the attorney late yesterday and I will try again today to get some more info. I know it is not Irvine but he did say that there are others protesting at Liarnar projects. If anyone else has seen something like this in or around Irvine please let us know.

flyer3.jpg

Now I am not sure how many people read Mish's blog but he has been following Mike Morgan's fight against Liarnar in Florida for their faulty construction. Mike Morgan is in so deep that Liarnar is even suing him over his website. If you have not read some of the stories on his site and Mish's I highly recommend that you do. Some of the stories are so disgusting that you may never look at Liarnar the same again. As you can tell from the flyer it sites an OC Register article that can be found here. As with most in the MSM the Register has not done any follow up. I checked www.occourts.org and searched for Liarnar but nothing came up. It will be interesting to see how Liarnar handles these types of things because they have a majority of the units in the pipeline for OC. They have a big pipeline in Irvine with the Great Park project of 9500 homes and 1400 homes at Central Park West. Of course Liarnar touts its commitment to quality.

For the record I have nothing against Liarnar nor are they the homebuilder that I used to work for. I just do not know of any other major homebuilder who receives as much negative news about faulty construction as Liarnar.


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