From abc7: "In Orange County, there was a 101.9 percent jump in default notices sent to homeowners over the same quarter last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems."
"It was much the same story across Southern California, with foreclosure notices increasing 104.8 percent in the six-county region in the third quarter, DataQuick reported. San Diego County saw a nearly 160 percent jump in foreclosure notices over the same quarter last year, while Riverside saw a 140 percent rise."
From the OC Register: "Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, is projecting a 'modest' price decline following years of price gains in the double digits."
"Young projected that the median California home price will fall to $550,000 next year from this year's projected median of 561,000. Sales will tumble to 447,500 homes changing hands in 2007, compared to 481,200 home sales expected this year."
UPDATE #1 - Here's the link to the foreclosure info from DataQuick
UPDATE #2 - Some nice charts from the OC Register
Address: 15361 Seine Cir., Irvine, CA 92604 (El Camino Real)
Plan: 2982 sq ft - 5/3.25
MLS: S457284 DOM: 41
Sale History: 7/5/2006: $897,000
Price Reduced: 10/06/06 -- $1,100,000 to $999,000
Current Price: $999,000
This home in The Ranch tract in El Camino Real was sold by a real estate agent/homeowner and sold to a real estate agent/flipper. The real estate agent/flipper put the home back on the market exactly 2 months after they bought it AND they expected to find a GF (as in Greater Fool) to pick it up so they could make the $203,000 profit they worked so hard for. A month went by with absolutely no interest and they lowered the price by 100k, deciding that they would be okay with a measely $102,000 profit.
If they do find a GF to pay the $1 million asking price for this home, they'll actually make considerably less than $102,000. The seller is offering a 4% commission for someone to bring a GF so I'll assume a total of 6% in selling costs (4% plus a little in closing costs plus a little to their broker). That reduces the potential profit to $42,000. The home is also listed as vacant and is also available for rent for $3600/month. Being the nice guy that I am, I'll assume carrying costs of only $4000/month (10% down, 6% IO on the other 90%). It'll be at least 5 months of carrying costs by the time this home is sold. That reduces the potential profit to $22,000. In all likelihood, the home will sell for less than $1 million and the flipper agent may be in the hole.
It's pretty surprising for me to see someone leg into a flip right now. When the summer started, things had obviously slowed down. How could anyone, especially someone in the business, decide they were going to buy a home this summer with the intention of flipping it?!?
From CBS 2: "The unsold inventory of new homes in Orange County is at the highest level since 1996, according to an economic forecast released Friday in Irvine."
"The report noted that what usually happens when a real estate market bubble bursts "is that sales just dry up" because buyers won't buy homes at the listed price and sellers are unwilling to cut their prices. It described the result as "the economic equivalent of Chinese water torture" -- with the decline in prices starting slowly but lasting a long time."
"The economists said they do not expect a major decline in home prices this year."
From the OC Register: "Orange County's home prices continued to soften last month as sellers weathered the slowest September in 14 years, new housing figures released Thursday show."
"The median price of an Orange County home sold last month was $626,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems."
"Although the median price is up $16,000, or 2.6 percent, from 12 months ago, it's the third monthly decline in a row."
"In addition, the median price of an existing condominium fell from year-ago levels for the first time since June 1997. Last month, the median condo price was $440,000, down 3.3 percent from September 2005."
From the LA Times: "Sellers who aren't keeping pace with buyers' expectations are growing discouraged and withdrawing their listings."
"That's exactly what Kurt Freck did. His Anaheim Hills home was on the market at the same price of $849,000 for three months. But after no nibbles, and seeing price reductions at comparable homes for sale in his neighborhood, he decided to cancel his listing agreement when it expired Tuesday."
"'I'm fortunate because I don't have to sell," said Freck, who purchased his home three years ago and believes that it has since doubled in value. "But as a homeowner, you got so used to watching homes sell quickly in the last couple of years.'"
"'The market hasn't gone into that desperation mode yet, but we see it as in the earliest stage of the downward pressure on prices,' said Adibi, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange."
Finding accurate and detailed information on Irvine housing sales over a period of time has always been a challenge for me. I wish I had kept each Real Estate/Business section of the Sunday OC Register since the beginning of time. ;) It would be great to analyze sales numbers and trends at the zip code level and have the actual numbers to work with. Until then, I've found some charts created by RE Report that I found at the Orange County Report that I think you might enjoy as well:
Short Term Trends - Irvine SFR
Short Term Trends - Irvine Condo
Long Term Trends - Irvine SFR and Condo
I visited my dad in San Diego today and so had the chance to take a first-hand look at the blood on the streets as described on Piggington.com. I saw quite a few condo conversions with sign twirlers...sitting at a traffic light near University and the 15 I was quite impressed by one fellow. He really had some moves going. If he had been a she I would have figured there was a high school color guard history in his past but, at least where I grew up, all those flag tossers were girls.
In my dad's gated townhome community there were four townhomes for sale within a 2 minute walk of my dad's place. Actually, three were for sale and one had a "sold" placard on its sign. Interestingly, all four were the same model, 1300 sq. ft, 3/2, yet the one that had sold had the cheapest asking price range ($385k-$395k). The other three were asking $395 to $405. The one that is "sold" is still in escrow so I don't know what the final price was but it's highly unlikely it went for the full $385k. So apparently the other three FBs don't realize that they can't price their homes higher than the previous sale any more. I blame their realtors. Still eating that late-summer delusion-berry pie!
Back in Irvine, I was perusing one of those glossy real estate mags while getting my car washed and I have to say, I am amazed and kind of disheartened at how the local "wishing" prices don't seem to be budging at all. The same 20+ year-old tract houses with tired, outdated kitchens and bathrooms on tired, run-down looking streets still asking $650k or more to start. These same darn houses have been boring me for months! I wish these fools would lower their prices already so their houses would sell and I wouldn't have to keep looking at the same pictures! (Don't these people realize it's their job to keep me entertained, for Pete's sake?!)
I didn't get a chance to go into any open houses this weekend since it was my weekend with my little guy, but I plan on hitting a bunch next weekend. Plus, on October 21st Portola Springs is having a Fall Festival as described in a lovely flyer that I received in the mail yesterday. I will definitely be taking my little guy there and I'll be reporting on the level of desperation that I observe among the fine homebuilders hosting this gala event!
Address: 804 Maplewood, Irvine, CA 92618 (Oak Creek)
Plan: 1200 sq ft - 2/2.5
MLS: S458207 DOM: 25
Sale History: 8/10/2005: $549,000
12/21/1998: $185,500
Current Price: $569,000
Here’s a Plan 3 in the Oak Park tract built by Presley Homes in 1998 in the village of Oak Creek. This condo was purchased on 8/10/2005 with 10% down. This means the owner has a little room to lower the price if they really want to sell. They listed the property for sale a year after they bought it. The Realtor.com link shows a range pricing of $529,000-$569,000 although I don't see that in the local MLS. There's also a different plan (also 2/2.5 and 1200 sq ft) in the same tract at 904 Maplewood listed for $524,900.
Assuming 6% in selling costs, the seller will lose about $14,000 if sold at the high end of the range and will lose over $51,000 if sold at the low end of the range.
Would you buy this 1bd/1ba 1001 sq ft condo in the Collage tract built by D R Horton in Northpark for $499,900...
Address: 100 Timberwood, Irvine, CA 92620 (Northwood)
Plan: 1001 sq ft - 1/1
MLS: S445813 DOM: 109
Sale History: 06/28/2001: $198,500
Current Price: $499,900
...when you could buy a 2bd/2.5ba 1400 sq ft in the SAME tract for the SAME price at 714 Timberwood?
Not interested?? Well what about this 1bd/1ba 822 sq ft condo (first spotted here) built by Shea Homes in the Ashton Green tract in Turtle Ridge for $599,000...
Address: 214 Coral Rose, Irvine, CA 92603 (Turtle Ridge)
Plan: 822 sq ft - 1/1
MLS: U6602927 DOM: 24
Sale History: 12/18/2003: $310,500
Current Price: $599,000
...when you could get a 2bd/2.5ba 1155 sq ft in the SAME tract for only $20,000 more at 235 Danbrook?
Are the sellers of these 1 bedroom units completely oblivious to what the market is like? What are their listing agents saying to them?
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