Some time ago, I wrote the post Timing Does Matter, to document the financial impact of properly timing the market. Today's featured property owners show how a family should manage their mortgage, and the benefits that can be obtained in retirement if you sell near the peak of a massive speculative bubble. I commend today's sellers. They are the role models I will emulate in my own life.
Isn't real estate supposed to be like vintage wines that get better with age? Rare vintage wines can get very expensive, and unless they turn to vinegar, their prices do always go up. Well it appears the 2006 vintage homes are all turning to vinegar now because they certainly are not appreciating in value.
Today I want to relay a story to you that was told to me by a real estate developer currently buying property in one of our most blighted California bubble markets. His company is purchasing this particular property from the bank for far less than the original loan amount. Do you remember the residual land value calculations from Land Value 101? This particular property was ready for the construction and sale of houses in 2003. The original prices were $400,000 in this particular market. By 2006, houses were selling for $700,000. When sales volumes plummeted, the builder gave up and let the property go back to the bank. The developer ran a proforma using a $275,000 house price. As you can imagine, this did not leave a large residual land value. The bank took the offer. This developer knows he can build and sell houses profitably for $275,000 in this particular market. If prices increase, he stands to reap a windfall. His only real concern is the competition from the REOs, particularly all the previously built homes in this subdivision he is undercutting by over 50%. He knows he is probably going to cause more walkaways, but prices are what they are, and as long as he can build and sell $275,000 houses, it isn't his problem.
Fortunately, for those living in Irvine, the developer is financially stable, and it is concerned about long-term house prices and probably will not cut prices over 50% to move homes. As we noted with the problems in Columbus Grove, those who are off the Ranch are not so lucky. Today's featured property is another of the bad 2006 vintage properties in Woodbury. This seller is really being hosed by his competition as he owes $184,000 more on his property than his comparable neighbor is asking for sale.
Speculation is a battle. The forces of greed and fear drive the financial markets, and the speculator attempts to profit from these moves. Speculation is not investment, although most do not understand the distinction. Speculation is the battle of the individual against the herd. For those who understand it and have learned to move against the emotional forces of fear and greed, there is opportunity to profit. For those who follow the herd, there are brief moments when profits are available, but few have the discipline to take them. Most speculators are slain by the market.
Like many others, I have a disdain for pure speculative flips.
People who buy properties, make no improvements, and attempt to resell
it for a profit simply inflate market prices. There is no value added.
People who rehab old or run down properties do a community service, and
they earn the money they make. However, flippers are merely financial
parasites profiting by constricting supply at reasonable price points.
Of course, flipping is a dying art, and those who are attempting it now
are losing money which makes for great schadenfreude.
Flipping is much more difficult now, not just because prices are
dropping, but because the constriction of credit and the tightening of
financing terms makes it much more costly and difficult to do. The
Option ARM with 100% financing was the ideal tool for the flipper. It
allowed him to enter the market with none of his own money, it
greatly reduced the carrying cost of the property, and it gave him downside protection in the event prices fell. With these conditions in
place, it is no wonder speculative flipping became the pastime of every
would-be Donald Trump in California.
Another behavior enabled by loose credit during the bubble was
cash-out serial refinancing. With the ability to get access to cash
from the property without selling it, there was no need to sell the
property, and many speculators held their properties and withdrew their
cash as needed. Houses were treated like savings accounts earning a
very high return. Of course, they were not withdrawing free money, they
were adding huge amounts of debt, but since the debt service costs were
low, and since nobody thought they would ever have to pay this money
back out of their income, cash-out refinancing became the rule rather
than the exception.
Today's featured property is an example of a speculative cash-out
serial refinancing flip-flop. The speculator bought the property with
100% financing using a 1-year ARM, took out some cash, refinanced with
an Option ARM, took out some more cash, and now they are walking away.
One of the myths about Christopher Columbus and his voyage to discover a quicker trade route to the East was that he had difficulty getting crewmen to serve because they believed the world was flat, and if they sailed far enough, they would fall off. Similarly, one of the myths about residential real estate is that prices always go up, and if they rise too high, they will not fall off. The people who bought in Columbus Grove did so right at the peak, and the continuing activities of the builders finishing off the community pushed their resale prices off the edge of the flat earth. The drop there has been remarkable.
The Columbus Grove experience shows what happens when large amounts of must-sell inventory is concentrated in one place. When prices become extremely inflated, and the market finally starts to fall, it creates a downward spiral that does not abate until prices are at fundamental valuations. However, the rate of decline is largely dependant upon the amount of must-sell inventory in specific areas. So far, the areas that have fallen the quickest have been those with large percentages of subprime loans (Santa Ana,) large numbers of new homes (Columbus Grove,) or both (Riverside County). This does not mean that the neighborhoods like those in Irvine are immune from the crash, it will just take longer here, and since it will take longer, they may not fall quite as far on a percentage basis because rents and incomes will be increasing as prices fall (we hope). Irvine and other neighborhoods will fall in time, most likely when all the Alt-A and Prime ARMS reset.
With 100% financing available in the Great Housing Bubble, it is a wonder all the Y.M.C.As didn't close down. If you are down and out, all you needed to do was fill out a liar loan application and move into your new house. Wait a few months, and you could open a HELOC and start spending all that free money. What could be better?
Today's featured property is representative of stress at the high end of the market. Most of the properties I have profiled to date have been at the low end because this is where the market stress is the most acute. The big push in prices occurred because many people took out 100% financing to buy starter homes. More expensive homes were generally move-up properties, and the buyers transferred the equity from the sale of their starter home. This puts many of them in a somewhat stronger financial position, so the acute stress of the credit crunch hasn't impacted them to the same degree. Plus, many of these borrowers used Alt-A loans which are not due to reset until 2009-2011. A great many of these borrowers have taken on huge debt loads well in excess of their incomes, and many will collapse when their resets hit. This hasn't happened yet, but it will.
This week in the comments, we joked about new lending programs for the next real estate bubble. MalibuRenter, the gentlemen who helped with the content editing of my upcoming book, makes a living patenting financial products (among other things). The following is an idea for a new patent (tongue in cheek).
Lending during the Great Housing Bubble was too messy. There were too many loan programs. Since real estate always goes up, and since people want immediate access to this appreciation to spend it like income, a new loan product which readily provides this money is in order. The Option ARM was a major innovation. By allowing for negative amortization, people were able to add to their loan balance and effectively "cash out" their equity. The problem with this loan program is that it didn't go far enough -- people still had to make payments, and they had to get HELOCs to extract the remainder.
The new loan program I am proposing is called the "Pay You" loan, or PU for short. The PU loan has no payment of any kind. The total amount of interest each month is added to the loan balance. Further, appreciation in excess of this monthly interest is sent to the borrower each month. Rather than pay for an updated appraisal each month to determine value, an automated reappraisal system which looks at the current pricing of comps can accurately determine the current market value. Since homes now pay cash to owners each month, home ownership would be very desirable, and home prices should rise steadily far in excess of the monthly interest cost. With automated appraisals, little additional servicing costs would be required. Also, lenders would find the monthly service fees an attractive feature, so they would readily peddle the PU loan to any borrower who wanted it, and since borrowers are actually being paid to own their home, everyone would want to enroll in the program.
These loan programs would be very attractive to investors because the interest income would be booked as profits, and since the balance is growing each month, the interest income gets compounded. The main problems investors in mortgage loans have is that borrowers often pay back these loans early, and the balanced decline over time. Therefore, they do not receive the rate of return reflective of the stated interest rate. With the PU loan, investors actually get a greater return due to the compounding effect. The early payback is not a problem because even if a borrower sells a home, they will quickly buy a new one to get back on the home appreciation gravy train. The PU loans may even allow for assumability and portability so the loan doesn't need to be closed out when a buyer wants to move up or sells. It is a panacea.
Now we just need home prices to always go up...
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I call you,when I need you my hearts on fire You come to me, come to me, wild and wild
You come to me, give me everything I need Give me a lifetime of promises and a world of dreams Speak the language of love like you know what it means And it cant be wrong, take my heart and make it strong, baby
Chorus: Youre simply the best, better than all the rest, better than anyone, anyone Ive ever met! Im stuck on your heart, I hang on every word you say Tear us apart, baby I would rather be dead
In your heart I see the start of every night and every day In your eyes, I get lost, I gte washed away Just as long as Im here in your arms I could be in no better place...
Remember during the bubble rally when everyone was in love with real estate? Turns out it was an infatuation. The fickle homeowners who sought to possess real estate at any price are now dumping their lovelorn properties en masse. Of course, it is easy to become infatuated when something or someone is making your dreams come true. All people had to do was buy a property and begin extracting and spending all the free money it provided. Now that the market has reversed, and people are saddled with crushing debts, and the property is no longer providing free money, it is easy to see why the object of their infatuation has lost its luster.
Today's featured property is another casualty of the low end of the market. There is much less denial at the low end, and much more carnage -- for now. The married woman who bought this as her sole and separate property has some of her own money in the game, so she showed more resilience than those who bought with 100% financing. You see, with any market price collapse, it starts with the weakest hands -- those that paid way too much and have little incentive to hold on. When these people sell, it drives prices lower and distresses a whole new group of market participants -- people like today's owner that have some money in the game, but not very much. The people who put 5%-10% down who are currently underwater will be the next group to give up. Of course, this will distress those who put more money down or purchased even earlier. Eventually, all of those who are overextended or deeply underwater will give up and capitulate to market forces.
The carnage in the real estate industry has been truly remarkable. I know many people who work in design, development and homebuilding who are out of work. Statistics have more meaning when you know the people it represents. I have had my own stresses and worries which are ongoing. Right now, I am one of the lucky ones who still has a job. The weeping in the real estate industry is a side effect of the larger problem with declining home prices. That problem has people weeping from all walks of life, and for most of them, it will get much worse before it gets any better. The crash of housing prices is a catastrophe for everyone who is overextended on their mortgages, and that is a great many people. Many are still in denial, but at some point, the denial will give way to acceptance with periodic bouts of weeping along the way.
It must be easier for those who used 100% financing to reach acceptance. They are not losing any of their own money, only their credit score. When subprime rebounds in a few years to service these people, those that saved money while they rented may become homeowners again. Today's featured property owners are a typical profile of bubble buyers. They bought toward the end of the rally with 100% financing, and now that values have declined, they are walking away and letting someone else absorb the losses.
The movements of financial markets are very mysterious and notoriously difficult to predict. Where will the stock market be today? Up or down? Your guess is as good as mine. Of the various types of financial markets, residential real estate markets are probably the easiest to predict because they trend for long periods of time. Of course, the difficult part is predicting when they will reverse. I thought our local real estate market would reverse in 2004, but the widespread sale of the Option ARM delayed the crash for two full years.
The top of the market is relatively easy to identify after the fact. When sales fall off a cliff, prices will soon follow. The bottom is a bit trickier. Sales volumes will pick up at the bottom, but it will also pick up in the false rallies leading to the bottom. Upticks in prices are not telling either because bear rallies have that feature as well. The relationship between price and rent is a good indicator. It predicted the last two bottoms, but if the price-to-rent (GRM) is at historic lows, we may not necessarily be at the bottom because inventories and foreclosures may be very high. In fact, I am of the opinion (and I am not alone) that we will have an overshoot of fundamentals based purely on supply and demand problems due to the REO inventory. Too many people borrowed too much money, and these owners will need to be flushed from the system before it is over.
Personally, I will not try to time the bottom tick of the market. I will buy when I can save money versus renting. In fact, I would prefer to buy before the bottom when inventories are high because I will have the widest selection of properties to chose from. If you wait until the bottom is clearly in the rear view mirror, inventories will be low, and you may not find the property you want (don't worry, you will not be priced out forever.) The previous bottoms gave about a 3-5 year window of opportunity before prices rose to valuations that were too high relative to rents. This time, the window of opportunity may be longer. The ARM reset problem will persist into 2012, and it will take another 2 or 3 years for all the foreclosures to work their way through the system. I may buy in 2010, but I will not expect to see any appreciation before 2015. That will not matter to me because I will be saving money each month versus renting, and I don't plan to sell any time soon.
Today's featured property is as mysterious as the markets. It was only listed yesterday, and there are no pictures. Perhaps they will be up by the time this post airs.
