Please join the discussion at Talk Irvine.

Big Wheeler

Oct 16th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

Left a good job in the city,
Workin for the man evry night and day,
And I never lost one minute of sleepin,
Worryin bout the way things might have been.

Big wheel keep on turnin,
Proud mary keep on burnin,
Rollin, rollin, rollin on the river.

Proud Mary -- Creedence Clearwater Revival

Link to Music Video

IMO, there are four kinds of people in the market right now:

  1. Those who are stressed out and losing sleep because of the housing slump.
  2. Those who are in denial and not stressed out yet.
  3. Those who can afford their payments and don't care about prices.
  4. Those who are not in a market position and can watch the carnage from the sidelines.

BTW, Group 4 is also sleeping well at night. Big wheel keep on turnin...

Asking Price: $850,000

Income Requirement: $212,500

Downpayment Needed: $170,000

Purchase Price: $880,000

Purchase Date: 9/21/2005

Address: 20 Wheeler, Irvine, CA 92620

1st Loan $650,000
Downpayment $230,000

Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 2,574
$/Sq. Ft.: $330
Lot Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Other
Year Built: 1986
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: S509104
Status: Active
On Redfin: 2 days

From Redfin, "This is a fantastic highly desirable corner lot home in the wonderful city of Irvine. This two floor home is great for entertaining with open areas, beatiful back yard, and a bbq area. This home features 3 bedrooms upstairs, one of which is the master bedroom, and two full bathrooms. Downstairs you will find an additional bedroom with another full bath. The kitchen has been remodeled recently and has a breakfast area. There is an indoor laundry room with room for full size washer and dryer."

Highly desirable corner lot. You mean the one backing onto the arterial at the main entrance where you will have maximum traffic?

.

.

The seller of this house put up a substantial downpayment, so this is not a short sale. If they get their asking price and pay a 6% commission, they stand to lose $81,000.

I don't know why they are moving, but I admire that they are selling at a loss when they are not being forced out in a foreclosure. Perhaps they recognize they will lose all their equity if they wait. If so, it is a smart move.

.

.

This has nothing to do with the post, but I am always scared by this graph -- updated in September 2007.

From our friend at Piggington's.


Posted in Price Rollback

Eve of Destruction

Oct 15th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

Don't you understand, what I'm trying to say?
Can't you see the fear that I'm feeling today?
If the button is pushed, there's no running away,
There'll be noone to save with the world in a grave,
take a look around you, boy, it's bound to scare you, boy,
but you tell me over and over and over again my friend,
ah, you don't believe we're on the eve of destruction.

Eve of Destruction -- Barry Mcguire

Link to Music Video

Do you get the sense that our real estate market is on the eve of destruction? Prices on the leading edge of the decline are already 20% off peak, credit is tightening and will continue to do so, the inventory is mounting, and the number of foreclosures keeps rising (We are behind San Diego, but on the same path.) There are no signs of any of these trends reversing.

What is really scary about the foreclosure trend is the fact that it does not include any of the homeowners represented in the chart above (remember the ARM reset problem?) The foreclosures and REOs we are seeing today were caused by people who started defaulting in 2006. Now that prices are clearly off the peak, most of the people needing to refinance will not be able to get it. In short, many of the homeowners represented on this chart are going to default and become REOs.

Since it takes at least 6 months to become an REO after the homeowner stops making payments, and since most people will exhaust all other forms of credit before they succumb to foreclosure, we can assume there will be a 1 year lag from the peak of the ARM reset chart to the peak of the REO problem. That puts us into March of 2009 before there is any hope of the number of REOs declining. Since it will also take some time to sell this inventory (we currently have a 20 month supply,) that puts the earliest possible bottom of the market in the Summer of 2010. Realistically, the selloff will continue into the 2011 buying season with the spring of 2011 being the earliest possible bottom.

If we are 20% off now, how low will we go?

We profiled another property near today's recently: Run Away. They gave up on selling and pulled their property off the market. Today's neighbor is in similar circumstances, but they have decided to get out -- with a hefty loss...

Asking Price: $350,000

Income Requirement: $87,500

Downpayment Needed: $70,000

Purchase Price: $390,000

Purchase Date: 6/2/2004

Address: 131 Huntington #255, Irvine, CA 92620

1st Loan $316,000
2nd Mtg. $79,000
Downpayment $-5,000

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,000
$/Sq. Ft.: $350
Lot Size: -
Type: Condominium
Style: Cape Cod
Year Built: 1987
Stories: One Level
Area: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: S509250
Status: Active
On Redfin: 1 day
New Listing (24 hours)

From Redfin, "Short Sale! THis home has a newer kitchen appliances and flooring and is in good shape. Needs some paint but has a lot of potential. Come and get it won't last long. Nice view of the trees and parking near the unit. Probably the best 2 bedroom 2 bath condo in Irvine."

Probably the best 2 bedroom 2 bath condo in Irvine? This realtor is probably full of $hit.

Nice view of parking?

Nice picture of kitchen clutter. I particularly like how the bottle of Comet cleaner is prominently featured.

Check out the curio cabinet in the living room...

.

.

Look at that rollback: $40,000 or 10% off a 2004 price. Wow! (pardon the exclamation point.)

Another one of those surprising 100% financing deals going south. This buyer may have even obtained cash at the closing. Either way, they are walking and leaving the bank to hold the bag. If this property sells for asking price minus a 6% commission, the bank stands to lose $66,000.
This property has an interesting sales history:

Date Price Appreciation
06/02/2004 $390,000
08/03/2000 $180,000
04/01/1996 $122,500
12/13/1995 $120,000
09/25/1990 $159,000

Apparently, we have seen 20%+ drops before...


Posted in Price Rollback

Market Sales Updates

Oct 14th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

Courtesy of Irvinexpat

Closed sfrs last 30 days: 42
address area tgn sale prc bd/bt sqft
29 Marsala Irvine/ Westpark 860C3 $540,000 3 2 1100

WTF Winner -- $100K off asking

12 Woodland Drive Irvine/ Woodbridge 860D4 $550,000 3 2.5 1655
4 Terracima Irvine/ Northwood 830H7 $614,500 3 2.5 1549
30 Le Vanto Irvine/ Westpark 860C3 $590,000 3 3 1300
30 Appomattox Irvine/ Northwood 860H2 $613,600 3 2.5 1504
14871 Larkspur Circle Irvine/ El Camino Real 860G3 $580,000 4 2 1400
9 South Cherry Irvine/ University Park 860E7 $655,000 3 2 1550
14592 Sweetan Street Irvine/ El Camino Real 860H3 $640,000 3 2 1482
4052 Williwaw Drive Irvine/ Northwood 830G7 $687,000 4 2 1640
19 Sweet Rain Irvine/ Woodbridge 860D5 $685,000 3 2.5 1571
40 Finisterra Irvine/ Westpark 860B5 $685,000 3 2 1353
1 Wintersweet Way Irvine/ University Park 860B7 $680,000 4 2.5 2500
46 Willow Tree Lane Irvine/ University Park 860C7 $720,000 3 2.5 1708
14 Flaxwood Irvine/ Woodbridge 860E6 $705,000 3 2.5 1786
78 Summerstone Irvine/ Woodbridge 860c6 $745,900 4 2.5 1887
16 Wakefield Irvine/ Northwood 860G1 $738,000 4 2.5 2148
61 Finisterra Irvine/ Westpark 860B5 $747,000 3 2.5 1600
3 Recinto Irvine/ Northwood 830J6 $760,000 4 2 2000
11 Solstice Irvine/ Northpark 830G6 $775,000 3 2.5 2013

Sold for $75,000 off asking and $175,000 off peak.

104 Monticello Irvine/ Northwood 830H7 $830,000 4 2.75 2718
8 Champlain Irvine/ Northwood 830H7 $855,900 4 3 2718
7 Tory Corner Irvine/ Northwood 860H1 $870,000 4 2.5 2279
16 Glen Ellen Irvine/ Northpark 830H5 $855,000 4 2.75 2250
21 Valente Irvine/ West Irvine 830G4 $895,000 5 4 3200
23 Decente Irvine/ Westpark 860C5 $900,000 4 2.5 2446
22 Bamboo Irvine/ Northwood 860J2 $950,000 3 2.5 2460
14 Carnelian Irvine/ Woodbridge 860E6 $975,000 4 3 2600
48 Whitford Irvine/ Northpark 830F6 $1,050,000 3 3 2765
31 FLORA SPGS Irvine/ Northpark 830G6 $1,100,000 3 2 2850 28 Vacaville Irvine/ Northpark 830J4 $1,150,000 3 2.5 2468
6 Figaro Irvine/ Westpark 860D3 $1,265,000 5 4 3115
21 Breezes Irvine/ Woodbury 861A3 $1,312,384 5 4 3531
19151 Beckwith Terrace Irvine/ Turtle Rock 890C4 $1,320,000 5 3 3000
24 Bayporte Irvine/ Woodbridge 860E6 $1,675,000 5 3 3472
12 Dreamlight Irvine/ Quail Hill 890H3 $1,660,000 5 4.5 3700
50 Cezanne Irvine/ Turtle Ridge 890C6 $1,600,000 5 4.5 3660

WTF award winner. Sold for $300K off asking.

37 View Terrace Irvine/ Turtle Ridge 890C6 $1,949,000 4 4.5 3700
23 New Dawn Irvine/ Northwood 831A6 $1,875,000 5 5.5 5045

WTF award winner. Sold for $125K off asking. Lucky, IMO.

51 Hidden Trail Irvine/ Turtle Ridge 890C6 $2,250,000 4 4.5 3690
3 KENT Irvine/ Turtle Rock 890D2 $2,420,000 5 4.5 4894
17 Taggert Irvine/ Turtle Rock 890D2 $2,350,000 6 5.5 4515
22 Cactus Irvine/ Turtle Rock 890F4 $0 5 6 6250


Posted in News

Summer Solstice ** Sale Update **

Oct 13th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

This property sold for $775,000. That is a $175,000 or >20% off the peak price.

The summer solstice is the longest day of the year. According to The American Heritage Dictionary, the solstice is "A highest point or culmination." Interesting that our housing market peaked in June of 2006 coincidentally with the summer solstice.

Today's seller purchased a property on Solstice street at the highest point in the market. Now, they are trying to sell before the sun sets on their bank account.

Asking Price: $849,900

Purchase Price: $950,000

Purchase Date: 7/31/2006

Address: 11 Solstice, Irvine, CA 92602

Beds: 3
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,013
$/Sq. Ft.: $422
Lot Size: 5,800 sq. ft.
Year Built: 2002
Stories: 2
Type: Single Family Residence
View: Trees/Woods
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Northpark
MLS#: S497016
Status: Active
On Redfin: 10 days

From Redfin, "Well located on one of largest lots in tract!!! Culdesac, long drivewa y, very private. Beautiful new lush landscaping w/ palm trees! Terrific entertaining area w/ BBQ and firepit. Interior is upgraded throughout!! Exquisite hardwood flooring, upgraded carpet, 2-tone paint, custom fixtures, gourmet kitchen, walk in pantry, stainless steel appliances, etc. .. Great community and facilities."

The exclamation points are back, and so is the gourmet kitchen.

.

.

Another property for sale 10% off the top in Northpark. If this seller gets their asking price, and after a 6% commission, they stand to lose $151,094 after one year of ownership. If they intended this as a flip, I would say they were not entirely successful.

And with that, the sun sets on another week at the Irvine Housing Blog.

Next week, I will be featuring properties from Quail Hill, so come back to see what's happening. Have a great weekend.


Posted in Price Rollback

Westpark Rollback

Oct 12th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

Said there ain't no use in crying.
Cause it will only, only drive you mad
Does it hurt to hear them lying?
Was this the only world you had? Oh-oh

Houses of the Holy -- Led Zepplin

Link to Music Video

Todays property is a large SFD in the heart of Westpark, and it is going to sell at a loss. The entire market spectrum is showing weakness now.

Asking Price: $819,000

Income Requirement: $204,750

Downpayment Needed: $163,800

Purchase Price: $865,000

Purchase Date: 1/6/2006

Address: 14 Posada, Irvine, CA 92414

1st Loan $691,840
Downpayment $173,160

Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 2,000
$/Sq. Ft.: $410
Lot Size: 3,800 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary/Modern
Year Built: 1986
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Westpark
County: Orange
MLS#: U7004191
Status: Active
On Redfin: 5 days

From Redfin, "READY ! 4 BR (1 BR/BA DOWNSTAIRS)HOME ~ APPROX 2000 SQ FT ~ FRESHLY PAINTED / GLAZED TILE FLOORS / LIGHT BERBER CARPET ~ LIGHT AND BRIGHT KITCHEN W/ STAINLESS REFRIGERATOR INCL ~ '1' LOW ASSOCIATION ($46/MO) ~ FRONT ATRIUM FULLY LANDSCAPED/REAR YARD W/ PATIO COVER ~ FRENCH DOORS AND SHUTTERED THROUGHOUT ~ GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD IN DESIRABLE 'WESTPARK' !"

I GUESS IT IS ALL CAPS WEEK.

READY ! Do I need to be prepped for a listing?

Slashes and tildes, / how ~ interesting!

Do you think the champagne and the candle distract someone from the 1986 tile kitchen?

.

.

This owner stands to lose $95,140 assuming a 6% commission.

Another week has gone by, and we have seen a bevy of rollbacks. They aren't difficult to find these days. For those of you who are not members of our forums, you should check out the thread on Losses Outside of Irvine. All of Orange County is getting hit. We have one asking price 38% off the peak in Anaheim!

I hope you are enjoying our tour of the ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.


Posted in Price Rollback

Secret Gold

Oct 11th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

No sticks and stones can hurt us
Nor the liars or the thieves
We'll use the stones to ring our garden
And the sticks to gather up the leaves
Brick by brick you know we built it up
Built a house to hold a dream
A shape that's rising from the rubble
Where the shaking death had been
I found a map to buried treasure

Map to Buried Treasure -- Crosby, Pevar & Raymond

Link to David Crosby Music Video

I think we have some buried treasure in Irvine...

Asking Price: $1,250,000

Income Requirement: $312,500

Downpayment Needed: $250,000

Purchase Price: $998,000

Purchase Date: 9/15/2005

Address: 42 Secret Garden, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 3,134
$/Sq. Ft.: $399
Lot Size: -
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean, Modern
Year Built: 2006
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): Has View
Area: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: P601656
Status: Active
On Redfin: 14 days

From Redfin, "Private location! No neighbor behind! Exceptional upgrades T/O, stainless steel appliances and huge cook island w/ breakfast bar, greatroom style kitchen/DR/FR w/ fireplace. Massive office/bonus room above garage, slate decking at two patios with fountain & rock waterfall, built-in BBQ & frige, ceiling fans in all bdrms & FR, two balconies, porte cochere allows for 3 car storage plus long driveway! Best award winning schools, gated, clubhouse/pool/BBQ community areas"

I think these designs are very boxy. Plus, I would not want to back up through that little tunnel.

.

.

Despite the rollbacks in this neighborhood, this property has appreciated 25% since late 2005. When they landscaped the property, did they bury about $300,000 in gold in the back yard? That is the only way they can get this sales price. What makes me so sure? Let's look at a neighbor...

Asking Price: $1,079,000

Income Requirement: $269,750

Downpayment Needed: $215,800

Purchase Price: $1,000,000

Purchase Date: 9/20/2005

Address: 36 Secret Garden, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 3,100
$/Sq. Ft.: $348
Lot Size: -
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 2005
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): Park or Green Belt
Area: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: S505877
Status: Active
On Redfin: 20 days

From Redfin, "MODEL PERFECT 4BR W/ 1BR/BA DOWN & BONUS RM/OFFICE ABOVE GAR W/ PVT ENTRANCE. UPGRADED THRUOUT W. CUSTOM PAINT, EXTENSIVE TILE FLOORING ON LOWER LEVEL & LUXURIOUS CARPET IN BRMS. KITCHEN FEATURES VIKING STAINLESS APPLIANCES INCLUDING GAS COOKTOP W/ OVERHEAD VENT; GOLDEN WAVE GRANITE ON CENTER ISLAND; UPGRADED: CABINET COLOR THRUOUT; STAINLESS BATH FIXTURES & KNOBS; BATH TILE & COUNTERS. YARD FEATURES FLAGSTONE PATIO, RAISED PLANTER & COZY FIREPIT; DRIVE HAS PRIVACY GATE. GOOD LOC BY GRNBELT."

ALL CAPS AGAIN!!!

THRUOUT?

.

.

These houses are identical. Well, they are mirror images of each other. They were purchased within a week of each other for a whopping $2,000 difference. These are the best possible comparables. The one that has been on the market longer is priced $171,000 less. That means our WTF winner above saw the listing and decided to list it for $171,000 higher. WTF?

Can't you just hear the BS rationalizations why his house is worth $171,000 more? Give me a break.


Posted in House Flips

Wednesday Sale

Oct 10th, 2007 by IrvineRenter 

This house goes on sale ev'ry Wednesday morning
And taken off the market in the afternoon.
You can buy a piece of it if you want to
It's been good to me if it's been good for you.

Take the grand look now the fire is burning
Is that your reflection on the wall?
I can show you this room and some others
If you came to see the house at all.

The House Song -- Peter, Paul & Mary

Link to Music Video

It is Wednesday, so I assume the house is for sale. I suppose part-day listings is one way to generate a sense of urgency. During the rally flippers were practically day trading houses.

Asking Price: $585,000

Income Requirement: $146,250

Downpayment Needed: $117,000

Purchase Price: $585,000

Purchase Date: 12/01/2004

Address: 14781 Doncaster Road, Irvine, CA 92604

1st Loan $468,000
2nd Mtg. $87,750
Downpayment $29,250

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,216
$/Sq. Ft.: $481
Lot Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1970
Stories: One Level
Area: El Camino Real
County: Orange
MLS#: S506347
Status: Active
On Redfin: 16 days

From Redfin, "BEAUTIFUL SINGLE LEVEL IN A GREAT LOCATION WITH PRIVATE ENCLOSED FRONT COURT YARD. WALKING TO SCHOOLS, PARK & LIBRARY. NEW KITCHEN, BATHROOMS, HIGH BEAM CEILING, DOBLE PANEL WINDOWS, SLIDING DOORS, SKYLIGHTS, HARDSCAPED, COVERED LATTICE PATIO, 20X20 PORCELAIN TILE, CENTRAL AIR AND HEATING SYSTEM."

ALL CAPS, AGAIN.

What is a DOBLE?

.

.

$481 / SF in El Camino Real? Good luck with that. If this property sells for its asking price assuming a 6% commission, the borrower stands to lose $29,250 (a total loss), and the bank stands to lose $5,850.

What commentary would you like to see closing this post?

  • Greedy buyer gets burned?
  • Poor homeowner leaves broken hearted?
  • The market continues to drop?
  • California dream a nightmare?
  • Stupid buyer should have known better?
  • Another victim of unscrupulous lenders?

How about, "It is what it is?"


Posted in Price Rollback
Page 279 of 320 pages ‹ First  < 277 278 279 280 281 >  Last ›