Monthly Archives: June 2011

B of A to speed forclosures on loans serviced for investors

Bank of America as part of a settlement deal will speed up the foreclosure process on the loans it services for investors.

Irvine Home Address … 10 SILKGRASS Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price …… $585,000

I know baby it's hard to be strong

Just take the good with the bad

And don't think you're alone

Frankie and the Knockouts — Sweetheart

In January I asked, Did BofA get a sweetheart deal at the expense of the US Taxpayer? When B of A purchased Countrywide, the government agreed to backstop their losses after certain thresholds were met. This limitation on downside risk is the only reason B of A was willing to buy the steaming pile of mortgages on Countrywide's balance sheet. I don't know if we are on the hook for the losses recently announced, but B of A is getting serious about resolving the issues pertaining to the crap on its balance sheet and the liabilities it took on when it bought Countrywide.

BofA to pay $8.5B housing crash settlement

Payment to investors for mortgage meltdown reportedly the largest ever

msnbc.com staff and news service reports — June 29, 2011

NEW YORK — Bank of America Corp said on Wednesday that it will pay $8.5 billion to settle claims from investors that lost money on mortgage-backed securities, in a landmark pact that could influence other major banks to settle mortgage claims.

This will establish a precedent other major banks will be forced to deal with. Expect to see more such announcements in the coming months.

The sum would be big banks' largest single settlement thus far related to the financial crisis that helped spark the Great Recession. The settlement, which Bank of America said would lead to a second-quarter loss, is subject to court approval.

“This is another important step we are taking in the interest of our shareholders to minimize the impact of future economic uncertainty and put legacy issues behind us,” said Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan in a statement. “We will continue to act aggressively, and in the best interest of our shareholders, to clean up the mortgage issues largely stemming from our purchase of Countrywide.”

Notice the bullshit implication that B of A was largely responsible with its lending. B of A has huge problems with its own portfolio, but since B of A was less stupid than Countrywide, B of A can look relatively responsible in comparison.

Bank of America said the charges would include an additional $5.5 billion to cover expected payments to other mortgage bond investors.

As a result of the settlement, Bank of America said in a statement that it expects to report a net loss in the range of $8.6 billion to $9.1 billion in the second quarter of 2011, or $0.88 to $0.93 per diluted share.

As banks earn more money, they can write off more bad debt. This will ultimately help them stop the amend-pretend-extend dance and clean up their balance sheets. This is an important, albeit painful, step forward.

The $8.5 billion settlement covers claims from 22 institutional investors, including BlackRock Financial Management, Pacific Investment Management Co and Western Asset Management. The bank said the settlement is linked to mortgages made by Countrywide Financial Corp, once the nation's largest mortgage lender, which it bought in 2008. …

For several months, Bank of America battled claims based on estimates “that were much different from ours,” Moynihan said. But at this point, it made more sense to settle than to keep fighting, he said.

We have said consistently if people are reasonable and can get to a reasonable assessment of their claims and it's in the best interest of shareholders, we will settle,” Moynihan told Wall Street analysts in a conference call.

Citi analyst Keith Horowitz said the settlement, which amounts to only 2 percent of the original principal balance, removes one of the largest investor risks for Bank of America.

“We think this could prove to be a step forward” for Bank of America, Horowitz said. It would show investors that the bank can manage through crisis without raising additional capital.

B of A settled for 2% of the original loan balances, and that is a reasonable assessment of the claims against them? Reasonable by B of A standards perhaps. There is no way that is reasonable by the standards of the investors, nor does it scratch the surface on the losses those investors incurred by buying the Countrywide trash.

The real story here isn't the settlement losses, it is what B of A has agreed to relative to its servicing operations.

Bank of America settlement could speed foreclosures

Investor settlement includes promise to outsource 'high risk' mortgages

By John W. Schoen — June 29, 2011

Investors who bought bonds backed by shaky loans scored a major victory Wednesday with the announcement that Bank of America will pay more than $8 billion to make up for some of their losses.

Homeowners on the other end of those shaky mortgages — especially those most at risk of foreclosure — may have less to cheer about.

In the largest settlement to date related to the rogue mortgage lending wave, Bank of America said Wednesday it would pay $8.5 billion to settle claims with investors holding about $100 billion worth of mortgage-related securities sold by its Countrywide unit. The winners include 22 large investors such as Pimco, Metropolitan Life and BlackRock, as well as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Aside from their claims that Countrywide sold them bonds backed by faulty loans, the investors argued that by continuing to service bad loans rather than speeding up foreclosures, the Bank of America unit ran up servicing fees, profiting at the expense of investors.

B of A and other major banks who service investor loans have two incentives not to foreclose. The first is as mentioned above; they make more money on the service fees than they make if they foreclose and terminate the mortgage. Second, the major banks have huge second mortgage and HELOC portfolios that are subordinate to the first mortgages they service for others. Each foreclosure causes them to lose everything on these underwater seconds.

The choice for the major banks is to keep obtaining their large service fees and keep their seconds alive or foreclose and recognize large losses. It shouldn't be a surprise they chose not to foreclose on loans they service for outside investors.

In Higher loss severities will force lenders to resolve bad loans and liquidate REO, I noted that “Each month a loan is delinquent it costs 1.5% of the loan balance in carrying costs. That is a troubling rate of financial decay. Time is the actually the bank's enemy when it comes to loan loss severities. Banks are providing squatters time in hopes they will get current and keep the zombie debt alive. Eventually, the carrying costs are going to make the loss severities so large that banks will either liquidate or implode, after which they will be liquidated anyway.”

As a result the settlement includes a promise to hire additional “subservicers” to speed up the foreclosure process for high-risk loans. That means Bank of America borrowers whose foreclosure have been on hold may now see the process accelerated.

“Living with the uncertainty of foreclosure can’t be a pleasant experience,” said Bank of America spokesman Jerry Dubrowski. “The sooner we can deal with that overhang the better for the economy.”

Did B of A start reading the IHB? Last November I argued that Foreclosures are essential to the economic recovery. I have also argued that keeping people in shadow inventory isn't good for the lender or the delinquent borrower. Until I read the statement above, I didn't think either group agreed with me.

Bank of America also faces considerable uncertainty as it continues to try put its mortgage woes behind it.

While the bank said its settlement would resolve “nearly all” its exposure related to mortgages issued by Countrywide, only holders of about a quarter of the securities have agreed to support the deal. Hundreds of investors holding an additional $300 billion worth of securities have yet to agree to the settlement, which also is subject to court approval. There are no guarantees that the remaining investors will go along.

Holdouts won't likely get a better deal, and they will merely waste attorney's fees trying.

“It is not possible to predict whether and to what extent challenges will be made to the settlement or the timing or ultimate outcome of the court approval process,” Bank of America said in its press release announcing the settlement.

Story: BofA to pay $8.5B housing crash settlement

At the height of the boom, rising home prices allowed mortgage originators to replace failed loans with freshly written performing mortgages. Lenders, investors and borrowers all assumed that there was little risk in churning out new mortgages — even if they were based on flawed information — because even if a loan defaulted, the rising value of the home securing it would minimize any potential losses.

But when home prices began falling, many of those bad loans came back to haunt the companies that had underwritten them. With demand for new mortgages drying up, there weren’t enough new loans to replace the ones that were going bad.

In the Great Housing Bubble, I pointed out that the entire subprime lending model masked its poor performance by an appreciating market — an appreciation induced by subprime lending itself. That was the Ponzi scheme embedded within the failed business model. Once prices collapsed, the high default rates translated into large default losses, and the risk became untenable. Hence, we have no subprime lending today, except perhaps for the FHA.

Now investors holding bad mortgages are demanding that lenders buy them back. Those investors include government-controlled lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In January, Bank of America paid $2.8 billion to Freddie and Fannie to buy back mortgages.

Bank of American concede in its press release Wednesday that that it “is not currently able to reasonably estimate” how much more it may have to pay to the two entities for losses on mortgage investments.

It’s also still not clear just how big the mounting losses on mortgage investments will be. With home prices still falling and mortgage defaults rates high, losses on foreclosed homes are hitting even those investors holding top-rated bonds. The ultimate cost of the claims will depend on how many more homes are lost to foreclosure and how much further home prices fall.

Bank of America also faces a potentially large payout to all or some of the 50 state attorneys general, who have been investigating abuses by the biggest mortgage servicers. The state officials are pressing the largest banks, including Bank of America, to pay up to $30 billion in fines and penalties. If a unified settlement can’t be reached, Bank of America could face multiple legal challenges from states that decide to pursue claims on their own.

Our banking system is still in jeopardy. It faces mounting losses, devalued REO, a huge shadow inventory, and falling house prices — which won't rebound because of the inventory they must liquidate. Fortunately for them, the federal reserve is loaning them money for nothing, and they can at least buy government treasuries earning 3%. Over time, a very long time, they will earn their way out of this hole. In the meantime, our economy will struggle.

A rare good deal?

The owner of today's featured property has owned it for a long time. My records go back to 1995, and it doesn't pick up the original purchase. This property is owned free-and-clear, so no lender approval is required to sell it. The asking price is at or below recent comps, and the cost of ownership is comparable to rental with today's 4.5% interest rate.

Even in today's weak real estate market, I don't expect this $244/SF property to last long.

If we see more pricing like this, I will become more bullish. The price is still too high, but the 4.5% interest rate is making it payment affordable relative to a rental. In high demand markets like Irvine, those circumstances will prompt people to buy despite the likelihood of lower prices.

Irvine House Address … 10 SILKGRASS Irvine, CA 92614

Resale House Price …… $585,000

Cost of House Ownership

————————————————-

$585,000 ………. Asking Price

$117,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.49% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$468,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$101,507 ………. Income Requirement

$2,369 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$507 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$122 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$395 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,392 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$395 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$617 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$194 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$93 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,667 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$5,850 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$5,850 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,680 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$117,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$133,380 ………. Total Cash Costs

$40,800 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$174,180 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 10 SILKGRASS Irvine, CA 92614

——————————————————————————

Beds: 4

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2400

$244/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: Two Level, Contemporary

Year Built: 1984

Community: 0

County: Orange

MLS#: S664501

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

——————————————————————————

Gorgeous remodel property with added/permite DEN . Light hardwood floors through the main level. New cabinets with granite countertops built-in refrigerator. All new appliances. all of the bathroom have been redone huge master shower and more and more. Den is added.

An accurate view of the Irvine housing market by Global Decision and IHB

Over the last couple of months, IHB has teamed up with Global Decision to prepare an accurate and in-depth analysis of the Irvine housing market. Today's post is the first in a series that will illuminate the workings of the local market in a whole new way.

Irvine Home Address … 31 CLOUDS Pt Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price …… $2,950,000

You can take a picture of something you see

In the future where will I be?

You can climb a ladder up to the sun

Or write a song nobody has sung

Or do something that's never been done

Coldplay — Talk

Back in March, I wrote about the future of IHB news and real estate analysis. In that post, i made the following observation:

Data is important, isn't it?

It's a shame the NAr has gone down the path it has. Few reliable sources of real estate analysis and information exist, and few signs the NAr is going to become one of them. That leaves a void. Uncharted waters buyers must navigate without a reliable guide. It's a void we seek to fill here at the IHB.

We are in the process of assembling our own private database of housing and related economic statistics. Over the next several weeks as I have time to digest the new information, I plan on a number of new analysis posts to truly illuminate the activity in our local housing market.

I have no agenda to spin the data. Let's see what is really going on. I want to be accurate. People can make their own decisions and draw their own conclusions from accurate data. If approached without the built-in bias of a realtor, data analysis can be revealing rather than deceiving.

I will still have a dog in this hunt. I do run a business that makes money from real estate transactions. I am subject to the same biases as any other human being. I sell real estate, but I am not a realtor. The truth needs no salesman. I will present data as accurately as I can. If reality motivates you to buy or rent, the IHB can help you. I have no desire to manipulate data in order to make a quick buck. This is a part-time hobby for me, not my livelihood.

After that post aired, I was contacted by Jaysen Gillespie of Global Decision, an analytics and consulting firm that has worked in the real estate industry. He shares my interest in determining what is really going on in the real estate market. As a professional data analyst, he is trained in special techniques I cannot perform.

In the weeks that followed, we have met several times and with the assistance of another data analyst, Brian Nadel, we have performed an in-depth analysis of the Irvine housing market. Today is the first in a series of posts on our findings. Today's post lays the groundwork for the detail to follow later. The basic model Jaysen developed is complex, and we felt it deserved a post on its own to ensure everyone understands what we did and why it is better than other measures of value currently available.

The following is the writing of Jaysen Gillespie. I have not set it off in block quote to make it easier to read.

A presentation by Jaysen Gillespie of Global Decision

info@globaldecision.com

Global Decision is an analytics consulting firm. While our methods are not industry-specific, our engagements are skewed towards specific industries in Southern California, such as real estate (along with online gaming and restaurant chains). We specialize in applying both foundational and advanced analytics to better understand business and economic issues.

Today’s post is an example of such an application, known as hedonic housing valuation. The goal of a hedonic housing valuation model is to use all information about a sale, including both the sale price and the characteristics of the home (number of beds, number of baths, square footage, etc.) to understand how the home’s value is derived from its constituent parts. Wikipedia offers a good overview of hedonic regression.

Unlike looking at comps, which relies on a small number of highly similar properties, a Hedonic model incorporates as much data as possible from a vast number of properties. The core mathematical construct behind a hedonic valuation model is a multiple regression, and for such regressions to produce statistically meaningful results, it’s helpful to have a large number of sales as inputs into the model. In non-technical terms, the regression procedure figures out how to best fit the values of all the pieces of a home to build a formula for the value of a home based on the characteristics of the home. A simple linear hedonic valuation model might, for example, conclude that each bathroom adds $15,000 of value to a home – or that each square foot of living space adds $250 of value to a home. Such values are calculated based on actual historical sales and represent the regression algorithm’s best estimate given the data.

For more details on the mathematics behind hedonic regression, along with plusses and minus of using hedonic models for housing valuation, please see the real estate section of the Global Decision website.

All regression methods – and in fact all mathematical models – suffer from one of the same drawbacks: factors not in the model may impact the dependent variable under study. In our example, housing values in Irvine, we might find that properties with an exceptional view sell for a premium. Our housing data does not reflect whether a property has an exceptional view – and our model would likely undervalue that specific home.

As it turns out, the Irvine dataset is the best of most possible worlds. The city itself is extraordinarily homogeneous: schools are uniformly good and crime is uniformly low. There are no “bad” areas, by typical American metropolitan standards. This homogeneousness allows us to construct a model that has a very strong ability to understand how Irvine homes derive value from their constituent parts – and is not overly swayed by factors not available for modeling. To further exclude data points that are not representative, we’ve excluded condos, “attached single family” properties. We’ve also excluded properties with unusual characteristics, such as a 15,000 sq. ft. lot, or 7 bedrooms. Unusual properties only represent about 2% of the Irvine sample and don’t detract from the model’s ability to trend home values over time.

With the data winnowed down to true resale single family detached houses with no unusual characteristics, we can then run the regression to determine how the value of homes has moved over time. Our Irvine dataset includes sales from 2000 through June 2011. The regression model calculates each quarter’s price change, relative to the initial quarter (2000Q1). Because there are only so many sales each quarter in Irvine, and because regression-based models need a certain number of data points to produce valid results, we are not able to generate a monthly price series of the same quality. Regression models require more data than some other approaches – but they also provide a deeper understanding of the data in exchange.

The above chart shows the actual median price for resale SFRs from the underlying dataset, along with the hedonic model’s estimate of how prices for those same properties have moved over time. The key insight is immediately clear: during the years of rapid appreciation, both the median and the hedonic trend were similar. However, between 2005 and 2008, the two series started to diverge and are presently at significantly different values.

A second observation is that the hedonic series is much smoother. The median price can gyrate wildly from quarter to quarter, as evidenced by the 10% drop from 2010Q3 to 2010Q4. The hedonic model, by contrast, dropped only 3.0% in the same period. A core benefit of a hedonic approach, versus a median-value approach, is that a hedonic model is not skewed by changes in the mix of product that sell each quarter. As sales move from larger to smaller homes and back again – or from one neighborhood to another – the median value is pushed and pulled by the changes in the mix of the underlying properties. Such changes do not indicate the actual home value trend and serve only to obscure the true change in home values in the mid-term.

So what’s driving the gap between the median value and the value implied by the hedonic analysis? As we mentioned earlier, changes in the mix of properties affect the median but not the true trend of real estate values. Foremost among such changes is the size of the median home sold. Clearly, with all else equal, if the homes that are selling increase (decrease) in size then the median value will rise (fall). For this reason, some analysts prefer the “price per square foot” summary metric. That metric also produces distortions, though in different ways.

You can see from chart 2 that the median size of homes sold in this particular dataset has risen over time. The rise over time is a general trend, but it also exhibits a visible discontinuity upwards around 2006Q4. Starting in that quarter, about 50% of the quarters have median home sizes that exceed 2,300 – a condition which did not occur between 2000Q1 and 2006Q3. The median home value series is pushed higher by the fact that larger homes are selling. The degree of the distortion is evident in the chart: the gap between the undistorted hedonic index and the median-based index is clearly visible from 2007 to present.

The other major factor that drives home values is location (regression models don’t need it repeated three times). Because Irvine experienced something of a building boom from 2000-2007, the percent of total sales represented by newer homes has also increased over time. This change in mix is another reason why using the median home value over time to represent the change in the true value of any given Irvine home yields distorted results.

An admittedly-leading question to ponder in the astute observations: if builders create housing that’s physically identical to the average existing housing stock, but those properties sell for a premium for being new, will using the median home value as a price index generally overstate the actual change in value? What if builders create housing with more (or less) favorable characteristics over time?

Using the Hedonic Model to Predict Future Prices

An interesting offshoot of the hedonic model is that one can use its relatively-stable quarter-over-quarter values to better understand whether the current price trend is deviating from historical norms. Home values have a seasonal component to them. Most major indexes, such as the Case-Shiller, offer “seasonally adjusted (SA)” and “non-seasonally adjusted (NSA)” series for this reason. The Irvine hedonic model is inherently not seasonally adjusted. In fact, one can use the results generated by the model to help understand the seasonality of price changes. The following graph shows the average change, quarter-over-quarter, in the Irvine hedonic price trend series.

The hedonic model provides solid evidence that prices are generally stronger in Q2, with weakness in Q4. This finding simply confirms conventional wisdom. However, if we couple this fact with the fact that 2011’s hedonic analysis shows a flat trend in Q2 2011, then de-seasonalized trend of Irvine home values in Q2 2011 was negative. Q3, on average, is about 1.8% worse than Q2 – and a typical Q4 is over 4% worse than a typical Q2. Only time (and actual data) will tell if Q3/Q4 2011 will follow these trends, but the implication is that Irvine home values could easily fall 5% in the coming quarters due to seasonal factors alone. If the underlying trend is actually negative, the drop will be exacerbated by seasonality. If the underlying trend is actually positive, the gains will appear muted in Q3/Q4 for the same reason. The Q3 and Q4 editions of the hedonic model will explain which scenario is the case. Stay tuned!

The Irvine hedonic housing model does not directly attempt to predict future home values. It does, however, more clearly show the true underlying value trends based on actual sales. Those true underlying trends can then be combined with other sets of data, such as default/foreclosure rates, loan-to-value ratios, job growth, and so forth to create model-based approaches to predict future home values. In that sense, if others can use the hedonic approach to refine their forecasting models, it does have predictive value.

IrvineRenter's commentary

When we first poured over the results, I was struck by how the model more accurately showed the decline in value since the peak without the distortion of product mix. I have noted on other occasions that the few transactions occurring in Irvine have been of the most desirable single-family detached homes, and in order to complete the transactions, buyers have put more money down.

The hedonic model shows both the increasing size of homes purchased as well those homes being the newer ones. As we will show in future posts, many of these sales have been in Turtle Ridge and Quail Hill were the premiums are astronomical. The flight to quality from cash-heavy buyers is apparent.

Armed with this new model, we dove into the details on various neighborhoods and even the components of the housing stock itself: beds, baths, square footage, age, garages. We also looked at condos and rentals. The results will be detailed in future posts.

Is Turtle Ridge really that nice?

Turtle Ridge is certainly a desirable community. Both rents and house prices carry a premium over the rest of Irvine. Of course, the rent-to-price ratio is still wildly distorted making prices completely unjustifiable on a cashflow basis, but since the market is always right, buyers have been willing to pay a premium on the premium to own here.

But isn't there a limit?

The owner's of today's featured property bought back in March of 2004. Based on county-wide metrics, they should be underwater.

Has Turtle Ridge appreciated nearly 50% since early 2004? Really?

If so, the supply of greater fools must be endless. Not that it's a bargain, but for $2,950,000, you can get an Laguna Beach home just off the beach.

Irvine House Address … 31 CLOUDS Pt Irvine, CA 92603

Resale House Price …… $2,950,000

House Purchase Price … $1,964,000

House Purchase Date …. 3/12/2004

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $809,000

Percent Change ………. 41.2%

Annual Appreciation … 5.5%

Cost of House Ownership

————————————————-

$2,950,000 ………. Asking Price

$590,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.49% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$2,360,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$511,875 ………. Income Requirement

$11,944 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$2557 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$615 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$395 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$15,510 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1764 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$3113 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$980 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$389 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$12,002 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$29,500 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$29,500 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$23,600 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$590,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$672,600 ………. Total Cash Costs

$183,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$856,500 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 31 CLOUDS Pt Irvine, CA 92603

——————————————————————————

Beds: 5

Baths: 5

Sq. Ft.: 4400

$670/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Two Level, Santa Barbara, Spanish, Villa

View: City Lights, City, Mountain, Ocean

Year Built: 2004

Community: Turtle Ridge

County: Orange

MLS#: P784881

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

——————————————————————————

Panoramic City Lights, Ocean, and Mountain View. This Amberhill residence is located on a private Cul-de-sac with full bedroom/bath on first level, five bedroom total + 2 home office and playroom + master retreat. This home features a dramatic living room open to backyard with extensive use of natural stome hardscape, front and back. polished marble and upgrated carpet flooring, crown molding and custom window treatments, Large kitchen with granite counters/island, full backsplash, built-in subzero refrigerator, professional series six burner cooktop, double ovens, and bread-warmer. Spacious family room great for entertaining which includes integrated 5 speaker surround sound with custom media built-in. Very large dual master+ 8-head massage shower, hot tub, and large walk in wardrobe. private backyard with City lights / Ocean/ Mountain views with custom BBQ/pool/jacuzzi

stome hardscape? upgrated?

Loan modifications are not an entitlement, banks don't want to make them one

Loan owners have come to believe they are entitled to loan modifications. They aren't, and banks don't want to change the terms of the loan, so they make the process as difficult as possible.

Irvine Home Address … 314 STREAMWOOD Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price …… $232,900

Absolutely no one that knows me better

How did we stay so long together?

When everybody, everybody said we never would

Sugarland — Stuck Like Glue

Lenders and borrowers are stuck with each other. Lenders know everything about their borrowers, and most lenders believe their borrowers are capable to making their mortgage payments. Unfortunately, when they are severely underwater and paying more than a comparable rental, borrowers don't want to make their payments. A poor compromise is a loan modification. They haven't worked out very well.

Why is housing market stuck? This family offers one answer

By Bob Sullivan — June 27. 2011

CHICAGO — Ron and Cheryl Schmalz think they know one reason the U.S. housing market is stuck. They just spent more than two years and created about 50 pounds' worth of paper trying to get a $300-per-month modification to their mortgage.

Whoa! Wait a minute. What is the connection between the housing market being “stuck” and people having difficulty getting a loan modification? If everyone who wanted one were given a loan modification would the market suddenly get unstuck? Of course not. The banks are still in denial that they gave out a bunch of free money. If they have to write off the debt in loan modifications, they truly would be giving out free money. They won't do that.

Nearly every month for the past two years, the Schmalzes received a warning from their mortgage holder, JP Morgan Chase, that the bank was about to foreclose on their home and that late fees were mercilessly piling up. Nearly every two months, the couple would dutifully fax in a pile of paperwork reminding the firm that they were participating in its loan modification program and making trial payments prescribed by the bank.

“We had 17 different relationship managers,” said Ron Schmalz. “They just make you file the same papers again and again and again. And each time you get a new manager, you have to start over. The last time we thought we had a permanent modification, we got another call that said, 'Hi, I'm your new representative.' It makes you crazy.”

At some point, perhaps after the 10th different “relationship manager” doesn't it dawn on people that their lender doesn't want to give them a loan modification?

It reminds me of the Publishers Clearinghouse Sweepstakes. You can enter the contest without buying their magazines, but they will resend you the paperwork with another query to buy a magazine. After about a dozen mail ins, if you still haven't bought a magazine, they will begrudgingly enter you in the sweepstakes. They make people fill out endless paperwork over and over again because they don't want to enter people into the sweepstakes who don't buy magazines.

The same is true for loan modifications. They make people fill out endless paperwork because banks don't want to give the loan modification. Why would they? Particularly if they can get borrowers to keep making partial payments, they will shine those people on as long as possible. As far as the bank is concerned, these borrowers are the living dead, so squeezing a few extra payments out of debt zombies is gravy to them.

Further, if lenders did start giving out loan modifications, everyone would want one. Who wants to pay back their full mortgage balance under onerous terms when banks are giving borrowers better deals?

There are many troubling clogs in the mortgage pipeline that are keeping the housing market stuck — lenders aren't lending; there are too many homes for sale; there's a lack of buyers because of poor employment prospects.

I have read the statement that lenders aren't lending many times. It isn't true. This is a sensationalist claim that implies lenders are capriciously hurting the economy and the housing market.

It is true that lenders are no longer giving unlimited amounts of free money to anyone with a pulse. Hopefully, we will never return to the complete lack of standards and accountability of the housing bubble. However, lenders stand ready to loan money to anyone who meets appropriate lending guidelines. There just aren't that many of those people available.

But one critical clog is the limbo faced by homeowners who can't afford their full mortgage payments any longer but who could survive if their loans were refinanced or modified. In 2009, the Obama administration launched its Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), estimating it would help keep 5 million families in their home — and keep 4 million empty houses off the market, critical to the health of the housing market.

Did anyone who wasn't engaging in wishful thinking really believe the government would be able to execute 5 million loan modifications? The announcement had all the features of symbolic politics, with perhaps the exception of the appointment of a foreclosure czar.

Also, I dislike the pandering in this article when he says the program would keep “families in their home.” It isn't their home, it never was. They borrowed a huge amount of money, often with nothing down, to occupy real estate. Underwater loan owners have the same claim to real estate a renter does: none. They have no equity. The only thing they own is their loan.

At the same time, banks committed to continuing their similar, parallel proprietary modification processes.

The Schmalzes' odyssey is a window into the challenges faced by homeowners looking for help, by government regulators trying to prop up the failing market and by banks trying to pick the right bets among mortgage holders who might be able to pay some, but not all, of their monthly payments.

The Schmalz family has a happy ending. After two years of effort, the monthly payment on their Chicago-area home was reduced from about $1,175 a month to $861. It's not a free ride: Their original $90,000 mortgage is now a $98,000 mortgage, and the couple will make up for the lowered payments with additional payments on the end of the loan.

In other words, these borrowers converted their fixed-rate mortgage to an Option ARM. Do you remember the terms on Option ARMs? Temporary payments less than the fully-amortized amount with the principal being added on to the mortgage balance, and increasing payments in the future: those terms are a proven disaster, but they make up the core of loan modifications.

Still, the break the couple got in April represents the end of a nightmare that began in September 2008, when Ron lost his job in telecommunications and the couple told the bank it needed help. It's a Red Tape wrestling match that Ron Schmalz says can break the spirit of homeowners who might otherwise be able to ride out the rough employment market.

“You keep going and you keep giving and you keep doing and you keep faxing and you keep calling to no avail. And you just feel like you're a gerbil,” said Ron. “You're sitting in a wheel going nowhere.”

That's because they are gerbils, or sheeple if you prefer. If they were trying to give lenders more money or new business, do you think the process would have been so difficult?

Right after losing his job, Ron Schmalz began working with Washington Mutual, the original mortgage holder, on the modification paperwork. By early 2009, it was clear the application was in trouble, as Chase's acquisition of Washington Mutual had thrown things into disarray. After a few rounds of resubmitting required tax forms, income statements and monthly budgets, the Schmalzes were denied.

Ron Schmalz had found a new job by then, albeit at a lower salary, and for a few months in 2009, the couple tried to keep up with their $1,100 payments. But then Cheryl lost her job, they missed a payment, and they resubmitted their application. Working with Chase's proprietary modification program, rather than the government's HAMP program, they were given a temporary modified payment around $800 per month. The couple says they dutifully made the new payments beginning in January 2010 and were told that within three months that Chase would decide whether the adjustment would be made permanent or rescinded, so either way, they could move on with their lives.

Then, 14 months passed.

What is the bank's urgency to do anything? The took a loan in default and got the people to make $800 per month payments, and they didn't have to agree to anything. The bank is going to allow that situation to go on indefinitely. They have bigger problems with other loans to deal with.

Letters saying “We are prepared to start foreclosure proceedings” arrived every month. Ironically, they all included instructions on how to enter a loan modification program.

Almost as frequently, the Schmalz family says, they were told they'd forgotten to submit a tax form or an income form, or that their file was incomplete, so no decision could be made. With nearly every conversation, there was a new “relationship manager.”

“It's about obstacles. It's about what they placed in front of us to make this modification a reality. It made things very difficult,” Ron said.

Of course they did. They don't want to make the process easy because they don't want to give out loan modifications. This isn't a story about a bad program that needs to be streamlined. The banks have no desire to streamline this process or make it any easier. They want to get whatever they can out of borrowers, and if providing a dangling carrot leads borrowers to make at least partial payments, banks will do that.

There's no way to know who's to blame for paperwork mishaps, but the Schmalzes brought quite an organized pile of documents and file folders with them to show a reporter.

“Things got so tense that we were at each other's throat, saying: 'Did you file this? Didn't you file that?' You know, sometimes blaming each other,” said Cheryl. By that point, they'd fallen behind by $10,000, and “the tune of our conversations with Chase got nasty.”

They were $10,000 behind on their mortgage payments. What did they expect, invitations to the Chase Christmas party?

In the middle of 2010, the couple turned to Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan looking for help.

After a flurry of complaints dogged the various loan modification programs, Madigan's office had created a special division to deal with consumers facing the Schmalzes' plight. The agency gets about 200 calls per week to its mortgage help hotline, said Christine Nielsen, who heads the division. It brought on two full-time housing counselors to help homeowners submit loan modification requests to banks; still, she's seen the difficulty consumers have when working with banks. Despite a flurry of complaints about modification applications in late 2010, homeowners are still being left in the lurch.

Loan modifications are not an entitlement. As I noted last year, Loan Modifications Succeed by Increasing Borrower Entitlements. “If people are not forced to cut back discretionary spending before they obtain a government bailout, taxpayers are subsidizing their discretionary spending. The standards of what constitutes discretionary spending from essential spending depends greatly on the the spender's sense of entitlement.”

How many of the people calling the hotline looking for the loan modification they deserved were unwilling to cut back on their lifestyle extravagances? Remember Calculated Risk's post HAMP applicants tanned and juiced?

“Consumers are still having a fair amount of difficulty getting answers from banks about their loan modification applications,” she said. She said the Schmalz case was typical of the problems consumers are encountering, but some are much worse. One recent applicant was turned down for a modification by another bank (not Chase) because of a difference of $20 per month, she said.

Banks have to draw a line somewhere, and no matter where that line is drawn, someone will just miss it.

Chase wouldn't discuss the specifics of the Schmalz case, other than to say the firm provided the family with a “special forbearance” in 2010 and a modification in 2011.

“In general, we need complete and current information from a customer to make a modification decision,” a Chase spokesman said.

Timely processing of modification applications is essential to the housing market recovery, said Madigan.

Why? Loan modifications are not essential to a housing market recovery, so timeliness is certainly not necessary. The timely processing of foreclosures is essential to the housing market recovery, but nobody wants to deal with that reality.

“Our nation continues to be in the grips of a home foreclosure crisis of unprecedented proportions. Meaningful loan modifications — ones that truly reduce a homeowner's payments to affordable levels — can save homes, yet people often face serious obstacles attempting to navigate the loan modification process on their own,” Madigan said. “Resources provided by my office and other HUD-certified housing counselors can help people received a modification by ensuring banks comply with federal modification guidelines.”

Reducing payments to affordable levels after the fact does not save homes. By converting these loans to Option ARMs, they merely delay the inevitable foreclosure. These homes should never have been imperiled in the first place through foolish lending. Making sure lending does not get stupid again is the only thing that can save homes and sustain ownership.

As the modification process drags out over months, or even years, it's easy to understand the problem facing both banks and consumers. Generally, banks are working off an affordability formula based on income. Financial circumstances change; applicants can and do lose or recover income after they submit an application, which requires a recalculation. That explains part of the delay faced by the Schmalz family.

In the real world when someone gets laid off or can no longer afford their house — they have to sell it and move. Now, once you have obtained a certain level of housing entitlement, apparently you get to keep it forever even if you can't afford it any more.

Here's my new retirement plan. In my late 50s, I will borrow the maximum I can at the peak of my salary. Then a couple of years later, I will retire and demand a loan modification based on my social security income. Since I am entitled to a loan modification, they should reduce my payments to what I can now afford. That way I get to keep a McMansion on a retiree's income.

Excessive delays, however, lead inevitably to such changes. A family that applies for help because of a loss of income will be working immediately to replace that income. That places them squarely in a catch-22 — success finding a job could lead to failure in a loan modification application or, more specifically, in the conversion of a temporary to a permanent modification.

Duh! If someone finds a better paying job, they no longer need the loan modification, do they?

The delays leave the family in a perpetual state of uncertainty, with a pile of threatening bank letters rising. It also leaves the housing market in uncertainty — no one knows how many trial modifications will ultimately be rejected, with the likely outcome that the owners will lose their home and the house will be thrust onto the already-saturated housing market.

I'll give you a hint. Over time, they all will fail. Even in the early stages, the failure rate is 75%. Why would that number improve?

The most recent data on the administration's HAMP modifications show that only about one-third of 2 million modifications have been made permanent. Millions of other homeowners are engaged in proprietary bank modifications.

Even as the bills and foreclosure notices piled up last year, Nielsen's office told the Schmalzes to keep making their trial modification payment in order to demonstrate their ability to satisfy the lowered obligation. Finally, in April, the Schmalzes got the good news they'd been dreaming about.

“Essentially, we got a refinance,” Ron Schmalz said. “But they could have done this at Day 1 for us. We're not upset with the result; we're happy with it. We're just upset with the process. We just don't understand why it took this long.”

That's the question nearly every observer of the housing market is asking about a potential recovery.

Yes, the lender could have given these borrowers and the millions of others loan modifications on day 1, but that would cost them billions more than they are already losing. Once the word gets out that loan modifications are easy to get, everyone will want one. Foreclosure Is a Superior Form of Principal Reduction.

MetLife eats a reverse mortgage

As you may recall, I really don't like reverse mortgages. MetLife recently began pushing reverse mortgages as Wells Fargo and B of A exited the industry.

“They must know something that I don’t know,” said David Lykken, president of Mortgage Banking Solutions, an Austin, Texas-based consulting firm. “They’re too smart to be heading into an area that’s disastrous.”

A lender that is too smart to make a bad loan? LOL!

I don't know what MetLife is up to, but the reverse mortgage industry is theirs for the taking. Based on loans like the big loser they made on this property, they can have it.

Today's featured property was purchased for $125,000 on 8/24/1990. There is a $112,921 first mortgage recorded in 1999, but no other refinance or HELOC activity. In other words, this was a responsible borrower.

Then on 1/28/2010, MetLife gave her a $367,500 reverse mortgage. Apparently, she took the money and ran.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 03/03/2011

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 11/30/2010

Document Type: Notice of Default

MetLife bought the property for $184,759. Perhaps that is all they gave her of the $367,500 they approved her for. Either way, this doesn't look like the kind of business a “too smart” lender would want to engage in.

Irvine House Address … 314 STREAMWOOD Irvine, CA 92620

Resale House Price …… $232,900

House Purchase Price … $125,000

House Purchase Date …. 8/24/1990

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $93,926

Percent Change ………. 75.1%

Annual Appreciation … 3.0%

Cost of House Ownership

————————————————-

$232,900 ………. Asking Price

$8,152 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.49% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$224,748 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$48,747 ………. Income Requirement

$1,137 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$202 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$49 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$258 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$242 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$1,888 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$104 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$296 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$14 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$49 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$1,550 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$2,329 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$2,329 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$2,247 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$8,152 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$15,057 ………. Total Cash Costs

$23,700 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$38,757 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 314 STREAMWOOD Irvine, CA 92620

——————————————————————————

Beds: 2

Baths: 1

Sq. Ft.: 889

$262/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: One Level, Traditional

View: Ocean

Year Built: 1977

Community: Northwood

County: Orange

MLS#: S664087

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

——————————————————————————

Welcome to the wonderful Springs area in Irvine. This lovely lower level condo features 2 beds and 1 bath, kitchen with dining area and open livingroom. Super clean and ready to move in. A must see!!!

BTW, rumor has it that OCAr is meeting today to discuss a settlement offer. I will update everyone soon.