In the past nine years, almost 108,000 more people moved out of Orange County than moved in. Where will the demand for housing come from?
Irvine Home Address … 35 COLUMBUS Irvine, CA 92620
Resale Home Price …… $649,000
All my bags are packed I'm ready to go
I'm standin' here outside your door
I hate to wake you up to say goodbye
But the dawn is breakin' it's early morn
The taxi's waitin' he's blowin' his horn
Already I'm so lonesome I could die
So kiss me and smile for me
Tell me that you'll wait for me
Hold me like you'll never let me go
Cause I'm leavin' on a jet plane
Don't know when I'll be back again
Oh babe, I hate to go
John Denver — Leaving on a Jet Plane
The California Ponzi scheme economy collapsed as the Great Housing Bubble deflated. I have documented over a thousand cases of HELOC abuse here in Irvine, California. Most economists underestimate the economic stimulus of millions of homeowners being given hundreds of thousands of dollars in free money by our banks. Now that this money is gone, Orange County home prices too high for incomes or rents, and Orange County home sales are falling with prices to follow.
These economic woes are prompting families to leave the state. With new household formation near historic lows as we get off the Ponzi juice, there is little tangible demand for housing, and prospects for this demand increasing appear weak.
December 27th, 2010, 3:20 am — posted by Jan Norman
In the past nine years, almost 108,000 more people have moved out of Orange County than moved in, according to newly released data from the state Department of Finance.
The out-migration was higher in 2005 through 2007, which would coincide with the soaring price of Orange County housing. Between 2009 and 2010, 6,475 residents moved out, but the county’s population grew 28,190 because 12,223 people from foreign countries moved in, the Dept. of Finance said.
Since 2000, Orange County’s population has increased 335,882, the Dept. of Finance estimates. That growth comes from residents of other nations, legal and “unauthorized” as the department labels them.
Loren Kaye, president of the California Foundation for Commerce and Education, does the calculations for the whole state in this article for Fox & Hounds Daily. California gained 350,000 residents from 2009 to 2010, he reports but 72,484 more people moved out of state than moved in from other parts of the United States. The gain was from more births than deaths of current residents and foreign immigrants.
The Dept. of Finance based its estimates on driver license address changes, birth and death records, tax return data, Medicare and Medi-Cal enrollment, immigration reports, elementary school enrollments and number of people living in group quarters.
Bill Watkins, director of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University, has a more complete analysis of current Californians moving elsewhere at newgeography.com. Among his negative points:
- The projected $28 billion state budget deficit with shortfalls in excess of $20 billion a year anticipated by the California Legislative Analyst’s Office
- Unemployment that is 30% higher than the national average (12.4% in November)
- California’s credit rating is among the lowest in the U.S.
- California’s loss of 1.3 million manufacturing jobs
- California’s 41st ranking in creating scientific, technical, engineering and math jobs
“In just a couple of decades, California has gone from being America’s economic start, a destination for ambitious people from around the world and abundant with opportunity, to home of some of America’s most depressed communities,” Watkins wrote.
And what's worse is the supposed prosperity of the last couple of decades was built on a foundation of Ponzi borrowing on inflated home prices.
“California isn’t broken,” replied State Treasurer Bill Lockyer and Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, in this Los Angeles Times opinion piece. Among their arguments:
- California’s state government general fund expenditures are $2,246 per person less than 10 years ago.
- The state’s number of businesses per capita “held steady” from 2000 to 2009.
- The state’s share of domestic film industry jobs is 45% in 2010, compared to 44% in 2000.
- Businesses moving to other states accounted for “just 1.7% of California’s job losses” from 1992 to 2006, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. (It did not include data for 2007 to 2010.)
- California’s gross state product grew 27.2% from 1999 to 2009, higher than the U.S. as a whole.
“California no doubt faces serious challenges. But our obstacles are not insurmountable,” Lockyer and Levy wrote. “California has the most diversified economy in the country. It has the most diverse population and the youngest.”
With all these people moving out, who is going to be buying Orange County homes?
Irvine Ponzi of the day
I have my own indicator of when the housing market will recover: the day I can't find a property for sale with HELOC abuse. I have contended for years now that mortgage equity withdrawal and peak buying has created far more debt than borrowers can comfortably pay without continued Ponzi borrowing. Until the Ponzis are wiped out, they will implode a few at a time and continue to put distressed properties on the market.
Most distressed Ponzis are waiting for house prices to come roaring back so they can resume their unconstrained borrowing and profligate spending. That isn't going to happen. The weight of distressed inventory is going to keep the market from appreciating for quite some time.
- Today's featured property was purchased for $494,000 on 12/8/2003. The owner used a $444.600 first mortgage and a $49,400 down payment.
- On 12/23/2004 she refinanced with a $455,000 first mortgage and obtained a $73,312 HELOC.
- On 12/28/2006 she obtained a $572,000 Option ARM with a 2.25% teaser rate.
- On 6/26/2007 she obtained a $123,500 HELOC.
- Total property debt is $695,500 plus negative amortization.
- Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $250,900.
- Total squatting time 11 months so far.
Recording Date: 08/30/2010
Document Type: Notice of Sale
Recording Date: 05/27/2010
Document Type: Notice of Default
Irvine Home Address … 35 COLUMBUS Irvine, CA 92620
Resale Home Price … $649,000
Home Purchase Price … $494,000
Home Purchase Date …. 12/8/2003
Net Gain (Loss) ………. $116,060
Percent Change ………. 23.5%
Annual Appreciation … 3.8%
Cost of Ownership
$649,000 ………. Asking Price
$129,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional
5.07% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate
$519,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage
$135,455 ………. Income Requirement
$2,809 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment
$562 ………. Property Tax
$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)
$108 ………. Homeowners Insurance
$0 ………. Homeowners Association Fees
$3,480 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
-$482 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)
-$616 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$257 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)
$81 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
$2,720 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
$6,490 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%
$6,490 ………. Closing Costs @1%
$5,192 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan
$129,800 ………. Down Payment
$147,972 ………. Total Cash Costs
$41,700 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves
$189,672 ………. Total Savings Needed
Property Details for 35 COLUMBUS Irvine, CA 92620
Baths: 1 full 1 part baths
Home size: 1,507 sq ft
($431 / sq ft)
Lot Size: 5,000 sq ft
Year Built: 1978
Days on Market: 249
Listing Updated: 40310
MLS Number: P731953
Property Type: Single Family, Residential
According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.
Short sale. Sale subject to bank approval.