Beacon Economics 2010 Orange County Forecast

Christopher Thornberg, principal of Beacon Economics, delivered the Beacon Economics 2010 Orange County Forecast. I attended, and I report to you today.

6002 SIERRA SIENA Rd Irvine, CA 92603 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 6002 SIERRA SIENA Rd Irvine, CA 92603
Resale Home Price …… $899,900

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Burning beacon in the night
Can’t feel its heat, or see its light
That single solitary guide,
it must get lonely there sometimes

The Beacon — A Fine Frenzy

It was lonely being right about the Housing Bubble. Surrounded by a world gone mad, solitary voices of reason like Christopher Thornberg, principal of Beacon Economics and formerly with UCLA Anderson Forecast, were ridiculed. He watched as his opinions were disdainfully set aside as the ravings of one of those “bears.”

I recently attended Beacon Economics 2010 Orange County Forecast hosted by the Building Industry Association. Christopher Thornberg gave the keynote address, and he was fantastic. When you compare his presentation with the awful UCLA Anderson Forecast Orange County, you fully appreciate what UCLA lost when he moved on.

The PowerPoint of his presentation is BIASDDec09.pdf

One slide that caught my attention was the one below that shows the inflation adjusted house price change since 1997, the last bottom. I covered this issue in the post called 1997 where I demonstrated that house prices are still well above where they should be if market conditions that existed in 1997 are extrapolated to today. Chris Thornberg’s chart matches my observation — Orange County is still vastly overpriced by historic standards, and so is most of California.

Another slide that caught my eye is the delinquency and foreclosure chart. See those two little bumps on the left side? Those where the catastrophic market-crushing foreclosure crises of the 80s and 90s — our current mess is four-times as bad, and we have not hit anything that looks like an identifiable peak. Yikes!

Beacon Economics is predicting a “W” shaped recession as shown on the slide below. Basically, if you were to take the 3 huge downspikes and imagine a big “U” that ties back in to the 3rd quarter of 2011, you see what would have happened if the Government would have done nothing. All GDP growth between now and 3rd quarter 2011 is a direct result of Government intervention. Like a surfer riding out a wave, our economy and our housing market is trying to drift to shore where we can step off in the surf without going underwater. Do you think the Government’s efforts will be successful? Homeowners sure hope so.

The big questions he raises generally pertain to Government policy. In the oral presentation, Mr. Thornberg lamented the difficulty of predicting where the economy is going when it isn’t economics he is trying to forecast, it is Government policy. As was discussed in Who Will Fix the System? our housing market is more dependent upon decisions in Washington than any other factor.

Notice from the summary that Christopher Thornberg is not calling a bottom in housing; in fact, since he is calling for a double-dip, he isn’t calling the bottom of the recession either.

On the subject of financial regulation, Christopher Thornberg was adamant that the problem is one of incentives; investment bankers and other Wall Street players pocket copious cash on manipulated market moves. As long as the system rewards volatility and malinvestment, we will have booms and busts where the winnings are privatized and the losses collectivised.

One thing he said that caught me by surprise was his characterization of Ron Paul as either a lunatic or a moron. Ouch! I know where he is coming from, Ron Paul’s ideas are loopy; shutting down the FED, eliminating the IRS, and so on; however, Ron Paul’s loopy ideas now making sense (and perhaps they never were loopy to begin with).

I don’t envy Christopher Thornberg’s task; he is making a living telling people what they don’t want to hear. It must be costing him money. He would certainly be more popular if he shilled like the UCLA Anderson Forecast Orange County, but his personal ethics get in the way.

I admire that….

6002 SIERRA SIENA Rd Irvine, CA 92603 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 6002 SIERRA SIENA Rd Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price … $899,900

Income Requirement ……. $190,170
Downpayment Needed … $179,980
20% Down Conventional

Home Purchase Price … $380,000
Home Purchase Date …. 11/26/1996

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $465,906
Percent Change ………. 136.8%
Annual Appreciation … 6.4%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 5.18%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $3,944
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $4,920
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $3,590

Property Details for 6002 SIERRA SIENA Rd Irvine, CA 92603

Beds 4
Baths 1 full 2 part baths
Home Size 2,516 sq ft
($358 / sq ft)
Lot Size 6,783 sq ft
Year Built 1971
Days on Market 1
Listing Updated 1/14/2010
MLS Number P717571
Property Type Single Family, Residential
Community Turtle Rock
Tract Bm

Turtle Rock Broadmoor Model G. Secruity gate & double door entry; 3-car garage. Fresh 2-toned painting, scraped ceilings. New floorings-upgraded carpet and laminated wood. New vertical blinds. Above-ground spa w/new cover. Downstairs master BR w/remodeled master bath. New grainte kitchen countertops, stainless stell sink w/GE range & dishwasher. Bonus/game room has a pool table and antique light fixture. Brand new water heater w/earthquake straps in garage. Overlooking community park and pool. Many upgrades unmentioned. Priced below market value for quick sale, please hurry!!

Secruity? grainte?

Many upgrades unmentioned. If they are worth mentioning, shouldn’t you mention them? It isn’t like people are worried that you might run over on your description word quota.

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This is the first really desirable property I have seen where I did not recoil with revulsion at the price. Does that make it reasonable? Based on my calculations, this property would cost about $3,600 per month to own. I imagine it would rent for that much (I didn’t pull comps), and I can see where someone at an income level to afford $3,600 a month might want to own a property like this long term. This is a debtor’s prison I might be willing to sign up for… if I could afford it. There are worse places to spend the next decade.

This seller is going to really annoy the neighbor at 6232 SIERRA SIENA Rd Irvine, CA 92603 who I profiled in Doubling Time by offering this comparable property for $370,000 less. Perhaps it will be a dose of reality, but most likely it will prompt further denial.


64 thoughts on “Beacon Economics 2010 Orange County Forecast

  1. Freetrader

    Well, it certainly looks like a bargain compared to 6232 Sierra Siena (by the way, what is with that street name? Was there already a street in Irvine named Sierra and another named Siena?) It still looks like a $100,000 premium for Turtle Rock, maybe $150,000 compared to where I live (University Park). Turtle Rock is a somewhat nicer neighborhood, I guess. I suppose if one chooses to pay that premium, you must think it is worth it.

  2. Multiplication Tables

    This will sell for more. However, it’s probably where prices will eventually bottom for properties like this.

    The W looks something like this: interest rates go up, the economy is shocked back into recession, the fed rate drops back to zero where it stays for a very long time. Mortgage rates go up, only for a short period of time, then the government is forced to subsidize mortgage rates for a very long time. I’d be more surprised to see mortgage rates at 7% than at 4%.

    1. IrvineRenter

      “This will sell for more. However, it’s probably where prices will eventually bottom for properties like this.”

      I suspect you are right about that.

      It will be interesting to see if mortgage interest rates are allowed to find a natural market or if the Governement’s exposure through the GSEs will force the FED to continue controlling mortgage rates.

      I am taking the opposite position from yours. I’d be more surprised to see mortgage rates at 4% than at 7%.

      You could be right.

      1. Multiplicaiton Tables

        My income and assets are enough to buy this place at this price. However for the life of me I just don’t understand folks making $250K a year with a $200K down payment buying a $900K house. Personally I would never extend myself like that, but this is Irvine and that’s how it works. There are enough people like this versus what is available (not much) and will be a available (still not that much) for prices to bottom at this price.

        My anger towards what has happened with government intervention has turned into acceptance. I accept that fact that the economy is all a game, the manipulation has been going on for millennium, and we are just fortunate to be alive and healthy and playing in that game. The game goes on, whether we like it or not.

        1. Lee in Irvine

          “However for the life of me I just don’t understand folks making $250K a year with a $200K down payment buying a $900K house.”

          There are not enough people making $250k a year, to support average Irvine homes like this selling for $900k. It’s that simple.

          “My anger towards what has happened with government intervention has turned into acceptance.”

          But the govt activities are completely unsustainable. The got is borrowing more than 10% of the GDP to float this Ponzi scheme. That’s not gonna work. It’s that simple.

          1. Multiplication Tables

            “There are not enough people”

            Exactly how many people do you think are required in the $900k+ market over the next 3 to 5 years? Give me your number.

            “It’s that simple.”

            That was a good LOL. I think you are in the bargaining stage but you could be a stage or two behind.

          2. Lee in Irvine

            That was a good LOL. I think you are in the bargaining stage but you could be a stage or two behind.

            Oh really?

            The Japanese said they could bailout the banks, backstop lending, and hold up asset prices 20 years ago. How’s it worked for them? Do you think we’re different? LoL

          3. Multiplication Tables

            Here’s the best part:

            No it won’t be any different other than the fact that the American bubble was smaller.

            When was the last time you looked at buying a condo in Tokyo.

          4. Walter

            “There are not enough people making $250k a year, to support average Irvine homes like this selling for $900k. It’s that simple.”

            To me, the problem with this statement is the claim it makes on knowing where people with this kind of money want to live. If they all want to live in Turtle Rock, there is not enough supply, if Newport is the hot location, there will be over supply.

            “But the govt activities are completely unsustainable. The got is borrowing more than 10% of the GDP to float this Ponzi scheme. That’s not gonna work. It’s that simple.”

            I do agree with this statement. 10% of GDP can not go on forever. How it plays out is not so easy to pin down however. If it was, I could bet the farm and join the fat cats.

          5. Lee in Irvine

            Multiplication Tables

            One more point.

            I look at the big picture and make my assessments on real estate based on commonsense. I do not follow trends, and I think the masses are stupid.

            Facts:

            1) Home prices in Irvine have more than doubled since 9/11.

            2) HH Income has not even come close to matching home price appreciation.

            3) Easy lending and ultra low mortgage rates have filled the gap between income and home prices.

            4) The private sector has abandon easy lending.

            5) The govt has now unprecedentedly entered the mortgage market in an attempt to create a floor in home prices.

            6) The govt has now thrown everything it can to keep mortgage rates artificially low. I do not believe they any ammo left.

            7) The govt spending activities have now resulted in public outrage, as the annual deficit exceeds 10%. This is happening as states all over the country are insolvent (including CA), and facing massive cuts in budgets.

            8) This has all resulted in very conflicting data, showing promise in housing and the markets, while home defaults continue to rise, and unemployment is at multi-decade highs.

          6. AZDavidPhx

            Don’t stress it, Lee – after the next shoe falls MT is just going to slither away like all those before he who have come here and engaged in Pollyanna head-in-their-ass hubris.

            He miserably failed the arithmetic test yesterday demonstrating his inability to exercise critical thought.

            Until then, let him have his moment in the sun to be a hot air windbag so we have some great quotes for posterity later on.

          7. Lee in Irvine

            “If they all want to live in Turtle Rock, there is not enough supply, if Newport is the hot location, there will be over supply.”

            I never bought the supply argument. Don’t get me wrong … I understand the argument people say about demand and supply, I just think it’s been vastly overstated by most people with an interest in keeping this scheme going. I’ve seen a few of Laguna’s most prestige properties recently sell for 55% of the original asking price. JMO~ No community in the OC is currently being hurt more than our most exclusive neighborhoods.

          8. Multiplication Tables

            Lee, we are only 3 years into this, Japan is going on 20 years. Take a look at our current debt to GDP and compare it to Japans. Now realize that the US has more ability to take on debt and print money than Japan does. This won’t end well, but we could go on like this for several decades or more.

            I’m still waiting for my answer on how many people are required to buy 900k homes over the next 5 years. Let me give you are starting point: if 30 such homes are sold a month then 1800 people are required over 5 years.

          9. Talia

            “But the govt activities are completely unsustainable. The got is borrowing more than 10% of the GDP to float this Ponzi scheme. That’s not gonna work. It’s that simple.”

            This could just as easily been written in 1814, 1867, 1907, 1936, 1947, etc. etc. etc. On its face, Lee is right, eventually it will fail, but when? Translation…the govt can play “extend and pretend” longer than you can stay alive.

          10. AZDavidPhx

            MT –

            Your dilemma is that you are taking that quantity ’30’ and assuming a linear trend from here on out into the next 5 years – a fool’s extrapolation.

            You are working with a biased sample that does not consider rising interest rates, bubble wealth exhaustion, declining asset values, etc that will send your fixed quantity assumption way off in the event of a divergence from today’s status quo which you have acknowledged is not sustainable.

          11. OC_Boston_Bay

            2002. They’re cheap and getting cheaper. I have a buddy who lives in Kamakura oceanfront and he paid $400K for a 3LDK 6 yrs ago. I visited his home this year and asked him if he could sell it for what he paid. His response was “maybe.”

          12. Janzen

            “Until then, let him have his moment in the sun to be a hot air windbag so we have some great quotes for posterity later on”

            Yeah – like this one from Lee over on the OC register

            lee in irvine says:
            July 3, 2009 at 7 pm
            My prediction for Orange County single-family home prices:
            $450,000 ~ Year End 2008
            $425,000 ~ March 2009
            $405,000 ~ June 2009
            $395,000 ~ Sept 2009
            $375,000 ~ Year End 2009
            $355,000 ~ March 2010
            $335,000 ~ June 2010
            $315,000 ~ Sept 2010
            $295,000 ~ Year End 2010

          13. AZDavidPhx

            Well, in fairness to Lee – the government has since then continued to goose the market by extending tax credits in Nov, Fed committed to extended low interest rates in September, GSE’s issued blank check for losses on Christmas eve, etc which may have led to a re-evaluation of that prediction. At present there does not appear to be a monetary limit that the government is willing to adhere to.

          14. Lee in Irvine

            “Translation…the govt can play “extend and pretend” longer than you can stay alive.”

            I don’t think so … this time is truly different.

          15. Multiplication Tables

            Same thing was stated in 2006 by the realtor perma bulls. That’s a common phrase for people not wanting to move towards acceptance.

            He put that in bold? Are you kidding me? He references Japan yet some how we are still different, the markets will move quick enough this time to make Lee happy.

          16. AZDavidPhx

            Either way – the die has been cast. The government is going all in for a stealth default on it’s foreign debt by creating new money. Savers are going to take it in the ass.

          17. mmg

            “I’m still waiting for my answer on how many people are required to buy 900k homes over the next 5 years. Let me give you are starting point: if 30 such homes are sold a month then 1800 people are required over 5 years. ”

            very nice argument, but what counts is what people can afford, even if one house sells a months but price is going down from month to the next, eventually prices end up going down, at these price ranges there are not that many loans,

            you started you response by asking why people making 250k with 200 k down would stretch to buy this house? well alot of people on this blog have the same thoughts, also you have a lot of nicer areas in OC where you can get a bigger house,maybe view and a decent school system.

            by your argument, prices in Irvine can keep going up for ever because only 1800 people need to buy over the next few years regardless of prices, funding, economy and other factors, will they keep going up for EVER?

        2. mike in irvine

          “However for the life of me I just don’t understand folks making $250K a year with a $200K down payment buying a $900K house. ”

          you will be amazed by the final selling price and the number of offers this house will get…50% cash down from people earning less than 150k per year. I have been looking for a house for the past year or so(rather, just thinking of buying), the frenzy here is borderline crazy.

          1. wheresthebeef

            Mike you are correct. Anybody buying this house is a move up buyer that bought over 10 years ago and now has several hundred thousand (400K +) for a downpayment. Until this bubble money gets exhausted, desirable move up locations such as Turtle Rock will hold their values.

          2. matt138

            Bear market rally. Yawn. Free market forces will overwhelm gov/t subsidy of interest rates. This is certainty. This is unsustainable.

        3. Muzie

          “My income and assets are enough to buy this place at this price. However for the life of me I just don’t understand folks making $250K a year with a $200K down payment buying a $900K house. ”

          You got me confused here.

          So how much does someone need to make for it to be “OK” for you to buy a 900k house? 350k$ a year? 450K$ a year? I’m sort of getting the impression no income is “good enough” at this point. 900k$ is 3.5x of a 250k$ income. That’s a ratio we had in the early 80s – nothing spectacularly bubbly about that.

    2. wheresthebeef

      I agree that this one will sell for more than the asking price…at least this seller isn’t in fantasy land. I used to rent right down the street on Sierra Cadiz. Turtle Rock is really nice and commands a premium compared to other Irvine villages.

      I would love to own a 3 bed 2 bath single story SFR in Turtle Rock. Based on what I have seen is that you will still pay at least 700K for a fixer. You could buy these places for 400K all day long just ten years ago. My old land lord hit the jackpot and owns 4 places in Turtle Rock that he bough in the late 90s (he lives in one and rents the other 3). Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

  3. mike23w

    That “Real Median Prices” chart is easily misinterpreted.

    1) Median prices doe not give a complete picture of housing prices. You’ve mentioned the lower end is closer to being fairly priced than the higher end of the market. I’d be curious to see the same chart for the bottom and top quintile.

    2) The “Sum” column is the price appreciation over 12 or 13 years. Thornberg put Riverside in the yellow for less than 2% price appreciation a year(22.4% Sum over 12 years = 1.9%/year).

    I think average real home price appreciation is something like 1.5%/year nationally which might explain his color-coded categorization (anything over 1.5%/year is yellow or red). This seems quite conservative.

    1. Lee in Irvine

      I completely agree.

      The median price may be up 9.7%, but individual home prices in Orange County are not up 9.7%. I can show recent transactions all over the county indicating prices are still declining. The only thing that’s changed has been the mixture of homes being sold … and that’s only happened because the govt is currently back stopping this Ponzi scheme.

    1. AZDavidPhx

      Did you like Mr. Stevens old tale about using FHA to buy his first house when he had no money in the bank? Nice Populism.

      Yes, we don’t want to overreact so let’s just keep doing what we are doing instead – let’s not go mad and make debtors scrounge up a few more thousand for a downpayment we love home ownership blah blah blah. If you can’t be part of the solution, there is good money to be made in prolonging the problem.

  4. BeachRenter

    Stainless Stell sink? I can only imagine what other upgrades weren’t mentioned if the earthquake straps (required by code) were given a little pop.

    Just returned from a trip to Vancouver (and Whistler) and you should see the false economy going up there ( read Olympics). Huge amounts of Downtown residential high rise space is empty and continues to come online. Reports in the local paper about record housing prices.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/real-estate-market-bounces-to-highs/article1433265/

    It all sounds very familiar.

    Great place though!

  5. Ir Renter

    This property has been on the market for sometime. It was listed for $1,069,000 back in 7/2009 and then dropped to ~$980,000 and now $899,000.

    1. ocresident73

      Agreed. This property was on and off the market even before that listing you mentioned from July of last year. As far as I know, it’s also been vacant that entire time, and it backs up to Shady Canyon Dr., which get pretty significant traffic these days.

      For all of those who have previously commented that this property will go for more than asking, I suppose an all-cash foreign buyer could make that happen, but then why didn’t they decide to pay more a year or two ago when this baby was first listed?

      Either there’s something seriously wrong with this property, or even the FCB’s know better than to overpay on this one.

    2. tonye

      First off, this is NOT a floorplan G…. it’s a floorplan 5.

      It does have a very nice bonus room over the garage, which some sellers call it a 5th bedroom, but it is not.

      One issue with this floorplan is the layout. The master bedroom is downstairs and dark. The kitchen is small. The other three bedrooms are upstairs and they all share one bathroom.

      The three car garage is fine, but if that’s what you want and you want to be in a Broadmoor home then you want floorplan 4. That one has two bathrooms upstairs.

  6. Yummyhatorade

    Since all you did yesterday was be rude and talk smack, I ask you again:

    Since you didn’t answer me yesterday, I will ask again;

    Why do you pass off your opinion as fact?

    Why do you make charts showing income and assets of people whom you do not know, and which contain facts unavailable to you?

    Don’t hate….just answer the question (please).

    Sent from my iPhone

    1. AZDavidPhx

      Please cite the opinion passed off as fact. Be more specific.

      Which chart did you have a problem with and why?

      Be specific with your grievance – otherwise it looks like you are making a rhetorical statement that you devised in the form of a question that cannot be answered – it’s a logical fallacy known as a ‘loaded question’. Right?

    2. HomeBeggar

      I have to answer the chart question: Since when do we need to “know” the people the charts are talking about? We’re just talking income/asset numbers which are BEST REFLECTED in a chart.

  7. Katherine

    Thornberg made predictions for SFH in OC for 2009-2014.

    Year – 2008
    Sales – 17,751
    Price – 516,149

    Year – 2009
    Sales – 20,697
    Price – 467,895

    Year – 2010
    Sales – 23,501
    Price – 491,679

    Year – 2011
    Sales – 22,616
    Price – 488,133

    Year – 2012
    Sales – 24,870
    Price – 496,418

    Year – 2013
    Sales – 27,569
    Price – 523,752

    Year – 2014
    Sales – 28,356
    Price – 564,316

    So even with his double dip, Mr. Thornburg, the guy who accurately predicted the downturn, says the bottom in OC MP was 2009.

    1. E

      Medians been beat to death over and over.

      When nicer homes sell for less median goes up.

      Now BRING ME A BEER!

    2. RTHT

      You knew that one was coming. Bulls love median as proof of an increase when it goes up, discredit the mix and type when it goes down. Bears do the reverse.

      Now that median is going the other way, the bears are out in force. Look for alot of this in the months and years to come.

    3. IrvineRenter

      I didn’t see those projections for OC in the report. Are those projections old, and does he still stand by them?

        1. newbie2008

          Was that as “news story” on the same ppt presentation but with a different spin from the reporter?

          The FED controls much of the govt, but the creation of money — ordering the US treasury to print more for them at no cost, releasing and borrowing. Who owns the FEDs would answer many questions?

          BHO is just one part of the govt, who set some policy. If the other branches or the FEDs want to block implementation, they can. So far there not much difference between BHO and GWB on fiscal matters of the bailout for WS and continued monkeying with the interest rate for more bubbles via FED assistance (or by agreeing with the FEDs). I’m not privy to the flow of orders.

  8. Woodbury Renter

    TIC is expecting a frenzy of eager homebuyers to attend the new Woodbury model grand opening on Jan 30th. They even have set up an off-site shuttle location that will bring eager buyers to the three new home sites as obviously all available lot and street parking will be overwhelmed.

    Is it really possible that all the new home sites will be sold out while a large proportion of the established homes (max 5 years old) are in the foreclose process?

    http://www.woodburyhoa.org

    1. Anthony

      Catch the next shuttle, oopss!, next bubble while it’s still early.
      Or you will be priced out, forever, again!
      If you can’t pay, Obama’s loan modification program is waiting for you down the road.
      This is a free country; everything is free!

      Anthony

      Moral compass, responsibilities, obligation to your debts are only for the stupid.
      Join the crowd, or be the stupid!
      What are you waiting for? Even our President did!

      1. IrvineRenter

        When you consider transaction costs on each end of the deal, you are 6%-10% behind the moment you sign the papers. With a car, you lose that when you drive it off the lot, and it depreciates; at least you can usually count on houses to appreciate after the initial hit.

        1. Stock Investor

          I think that it is land that appreciates and building that depreciates.

          However, subject to market conditions.

          There was at least one housing bubble, when personal transportation appreciated much faster than real estate. King Richard III:
          “A horse! a horse! my kingdom for a horse!”

    2. IrvineRenter

      “Is it really possible that all the new home sites will be sold out while a large proportion of the established homes (max 5 years old) are in the foreclose process?”

      This is the big question. The Irvine Company has made a larger than expected production run.

      I have no doubt they will sell every unit, and it will be a success. There may be some incentives to keep sales moving — incentives that will not be made public — if sales bog down late in the year.

      IMO, They will sell every unit, and they will sell them for the price they want, but they may also have to adjust the incentives to do it. Don’t expect any incentives in the first phases. They have no reason to offer any.

      1. Woodbury Renter

        I agree they will sell out, it just makes me uneasy. If there are so many qualified buyers that want to live in Woodbury why don’t they buy the existing homes from the last round of buyers who are now trying to voluntarily or involuntarily get out? The only thing stopping this natural market clearing is amend, pretend and extend.

        I’m not quite sure why they are building so many near the noise (especially Sand Canyon) when there are so many prime interior tracts not yet developed. I thought that the TIC’s master planning control would be able to prevent such poor design.

  9. lowrydr310

    “My income and assets are enough to buy this place at this price. However for the life of me I just don’t understand folks making $250K a year with a $200K down payment buying a $900K house. Personally I would never extend myself like that, but this is Irvine and that’s how it works.”

    I’m in a different situation with half that income and nowhere near $200K savings/downpayment, however if I was in that position I would not commit that much to a home.

    I’d much rather live in a decent condo for a fraction of that price, and either pocket the difference in savings or maybe even play landlord and buy some additional places to rent out (heck, there are some pretty attractive prices on nice rental properties right now!). Even now with my not-250k-but-above-average-household-income, I’m not going to commit 35% of gross pay toward housing.

    On a side note, looking at the property taxes on 6002 and 6232 Sierra Siena it appears that prop 13 really worked in their favor!

    1. IrvineRenter

      I apologize for your posts being “closed.” I have no idea why our blogging software picks on certain people. I believe it was Cara that had this same problem not long ago.

      One thing you can try is to make sure you are logged on when you make a comment. That may or may not help.

  10. Sue in Irvine

    Wow, that storm was scary. It’s moved out now but an hour ago I was sure we had a tornado coming. I bet we hear about a tornado later. When I lived in Michigan a tornado destroyed the bank I worked at. Fortunately it hit at night. The only thing left standing was the vault.

  11. norcal

    One thing I like about Thornberg’s presentation, at least as summed up by IR, is that he distinguishes between Government, Government Policies, and the Fed. It adds a lot of credibility to his claims. He picks apart what people are getting at when they blame “The Government” for all policies they don’t like.

    One additional thing I’d like to see is a listing of what exactly the Fed’s plan for re-regulation consists of.

  12. Jack Dawson

    if views of garage door are what ur looking for , this is the PeRfEcT house for u !

    but how do u ever go home (again) w/out a clicker ?

    1. irvine_home_owner

      You’re making me sad.

      3-car wide garages are a dying breed in Irvine… but I think TIC has put them to sleep along with fundamental pricing.

  13. newbie2008

    It’s the Fed,
    Blasphemous talk against the Democratic party that created the current Fed. Pres. Wilson (D) the co-founder of the current Fed. FDR (D) the one that used the big stick of the Fed or it used him. The Republicans since Pres Hoover bowed to the special banks with bailouts.

    Since Nixon, the Republicans have been joined the worship services at the Church of the Federal Reserve.

    Alms for the large too big to fail banks and insurance companies. Make the WS banks whole and give under 30 cents on the dollar to pensioners for failed pension plans that the WS bank loaded with toxic assets and stocks using creative accounting for increasing revenue.

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