Quail Hell

Feb 11th, 2008   by IrvineRenter  in Rollback

Must be getting early, clocks are running late.
Paint my love a morning sky, its all cold.
Dawn is breaking everywhere, light a candle, curse the glare
Draw the curtains I dont care, but its all right
I will get by, I will get by, I will get by, I will survive.

I see youve got your list out, say your piece and kiss off.
Guess I get the gist of it, but its all right
Oh well anyway, sorry that you feel that way.
Every silver linings got a touch of grey
I will get by, I will get by, I will get by, I will survive.

Its a lesson to me, the ablers and the beggars and the thieves
The abcs we all think of, try to win a little love.

I know the rent is in arrears, the dog has not been fed in years
Its even worse than it appears, but its all right

Touch of Grey -- Grateful Dead

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What will be the silver lining in the housing bust? What will be the touch of grey? Right now, it is even worse than it appears, but its all right...

(The rent isn't in arrears, but the mortgage payments certainly are.)

Quail Hill Map

Quail Hill is a great Irvine Village. It is unfortunate it was built during the later stages of the housing bubble because it will become Quail Hell for those who bought there. The discussion about housing is no longer about whether or not there was a real estate bubble: there was. The discussion now is about the depth and devastation of the crash which follows. The bulls will call the bottom every so often, and they will be consistently wrong until we ultimately hit bottom. I have made my case housing prices will fall back to fundamental valuations about 40% off the peak in Irvine. It might get worse. If prices do fall back to fundamental valuations, every buyer in Quail Hill will be underwater -- all of them. Think about that for a moment... an entire neighborhood where every homeowner owns a property worth less than they paid, and the vast majority owe more on a mortgage than it is worth. The last time that many were underwater, Noah built a boat.

Quail Hill Center 2

What would it be like at the local shopping center when conditions are bad, and every person you look at is in financial distress? This is Irvine, so we probably will not see much urban blight or other outward signs of distress, but inwardly, it will be hell on earth. A touch of grey? I hope affordable housing is the silver lining...

356 Quail Hill Front356 Quail Hill Garage

Asking Price: $525,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $131,250

Downpayment Needed: $105,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $4,375

Purchase Price: $621,000

Purchase Date: 12/30/2004

Address: 356 Quail Ridge, Irvine, CA 92603 Rollback

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,843
$/Sq. Ft.: $285
Lot Size: -
Type: Condominium
Style: Spanish
Year Built: 2005
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Quail Hill
County: Orange
MLS#: S519520
Status: Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin: 11 days

The largest floor plan in Ambridge community with one bed and bath on main floor. Spacious living room with fireplace, dining area, all hardwood floor. Open kitchen with granite counters, large master suit, direct access to two car garage with full size driveway. Short distance to Laguna Beach, shopping, 405/133 Fwys.

Don't you love the picture of the garage door? That has to be the worst, most useless photo on the MLS.

.

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Look at this unit -- a 3/3 in a new Irvine neighborhood selling for $285 / SF. This is almost $100,000 off a 2004 price. As sales like this one set the comps, it will soon become apparent that every homeowner in Quail Hill is underwater. There will certainly be many who hold out for ridiculous wishing prices, but the fact is the market transactions are occurring at steep rollback pricing. If this selling comp killer gets their full asking price (which looks likely as they are in escrow) and pay a 6% commission, they stand to lose $127,500 on their 2004 purchase.

Who said they wouldn't just give it away?

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by mo fine
2008-02-14 02:47 PM

To quote Allen Iverson in relation to ‘practice, you talking about practice,
practice?‘ I would say ‘Ambridge, you talking about Ambridge, Ambridge’. It’s obvious that Irvine Renter doesn’t live in Quail Hill because Ambridge is definately not a reflection of this community. it was one of the last tracts built and sold (sage East and Vicara were the other two) and it’s lodged right up against the 405. There are plenty of tracts within Quail Hill where homeowners who bought at the beginning are not just even, but actually sitting on equity and would still be sitting on equity with another 20% decrease. The homewoners that are upside down are the ones who bought re-sale properties within the last two years and/or Vicara and Ambridge. Being the lowest priced community in the 92603 zip code (Shady Canyon and Turtle Ridge) and Laguna Crossing and Irvine Spectrum within 1/4 mile this will be the village that survives the crash.

Astute Observation by William E. Jones
2008-02-12 01:21 PM

When all is said and done, I would like to ask the engineers of this scheme, “Was it really worth it?“  Of course, to them it was…they got huge paychecks for these deals.  The money on Wall Street flowed like lava out of a volcano, but in a broader sense I wonder what the cost to our economy will be.

We have got to stop engineering these boom/bust cycles.

Astute Observation by ipoplaya
2008-02-12 09:39 AM

Thanks Cal.

Astute Observation by BLT Bill
2008-02-12 09:28 AM

I live here too. You dont hear the freeway at all inside. You need to be out very early for a walk to pick it up in the background noise outside. You can hear the train when it blows its horn at Sand Canyon up at the 5 Frwy.

Back to the topic. Yes all those homes along Quail Ridge Parkway
are underwater. The are all so small and have ZERO yards. So sad.
And I think we have another 20-30% before we hit the bottom.
These homes wont be back rightside up for a decade. That is unless
inflation makes it happen from a dollar standpoint.

Astute Observation by JimmyJohnson
2008-02-12 08:18 AM

“..saw a flatbed truck with a newer tan VW beetle on it. Truck was going fast, ...“

I just saw one yesterday with a Lamborghini on the back of it, and I was thinking the SAME THING ! (Repo anyone?)

Astute Observation by awgee
2008-02-12 05:03 AM

There has only been talk of rate freezes and foreclosure freezes.  There are no actual rate freezes or foreclosure freezes.

Astute Observation by belle waring
2008-02-12 04:45 AM

oh, that does make a difference; I obviously haven’t been paying enough attention to the ipo saga! then I hope you get a decent price on your house and find someplace good. I live in Singapore and may be moving to LA in summer 2009, so I am following all this with vulture-like interest.

Astute Observation by cyberpunk
2008-02-12 01:59 AM

My guess is you’re so accustomed to the noise you don’t realize it’s there.

Astute Observation by Cal's Caddy
2008-02-12 12:08 AM

Ipo. Good luck. I’m interested to see how it goes. My family should be upgrading by the end of the year and from your posts, our housing parameter requirements are similar

Astute Observation by Cal's Caddy
2008-02-12 12:04 AM

I drove my Bro-In-Law past this house because it was Sunday and Chick-Fil-A at Tustin Marketplace was closed. (j/k) At night, the lights were gleaming and the water feature was flowing.

Astute Observation by ex-tangelo
2008-02-11 10:34 PM

That’s nice. I said in another thread about the same neighborhood about how I liked hiking in the hills, and this neighborhood looked like it ruined the hills by replacing it with depressing garage-fronted warehouses. At least they’re keeping some nature unspoiled.

And speaking of nature hazards, try reading John McPhee’s “Control of Nature”.  The last part of the book is about the fire and mudslide dynamics of the Southern California coast. As a former resident of So Cal, I was surprised at how little I really knew about the hazards. And that was the point of the author.

Astute Observation by ex-tangelo
2008-02-11 10:18 PM

I’d think whether your family outgrows your current place would have greater weight than any rational financial analysis.

“I don’t even have room to turn around, Ipo Jr’s toys are underfoot everywhere! We have no place to put them!“ ... That’s your two month warning to find a new place—or for you to find a new place.

Astute Observation by ipoplaya
2008-02-11 09:23 PM

Indeed George.  If this moves forward, I’ll change my handle to Dull Butter Knife Catcher.

Astute Observation by George8
2008-02-11 09:10 PM

ipo:

It can work well and make sense in your case providing all assumption remain intact for the long period of time in your analysis.

Not all knife catchers are equal.

Astute Observation by Nickster
2008-02-11 08:44 PM

I think the only thing understated about this bubble has been the true affect on the economy… we are in a horrible recession and fed is trying to sugar coat it. As always the fed will over react until they send the pendulim back and the cycle will change once again to the other extreme. 

On the bright side, I did find a new site that I like http://www.beekast.com pretty cool video tours on rentals and for sales.

Astute Observation by Stupid
2008-02-11 06:46 PM

Speaking of malls… went to the mall at Culver & Deerfield today, saw a flatbed truck with a newer tan VW beetle on it.  Truck was going fast, didn’t stop at the stop sign, went plowing past me out of the mall.  Repro?

Astute Observation by Stupid
2008-02-11 06:38 PM

I toured that one.  It’s really nice.  Way over the top - the roof tiles, doors, etc. are all imported antiques (from Morocco?).

Astute Observation by ipoplaya
2008-02-11 06:16 PM

LOL mmg.  My after-tax spend will be more like $3100 per month, which is only $400-600 more than people pay to rent the condo in today’s post.  Heck, that’s only a grand more than some people on this board pay to rent their IAC apartments…

Astute Observation by ipoplaya
2008-02-11 06:11 PM

Thanks for the post belle.  We’re unfortunately not renters.  We are already losing big in this decline, so we are only trading one decling asset for another.  Peak pricing for my place was $735K or so, now it’s $550-575K at current market.  Peak price for the house we are thinking of offering on was probably around $1.1M or a little short of that. 

If everything falls at equivalent percentages, say 25% more, my house will be worth perhaps $430K at bottom while this place would go to $675K.  That price spread at the bottom, approximately $245K is just a little less than the price spread today, assuming I can get the deal I think can, of around $275K.

See my quandry here?  I could wait perhaps another 2-3 years, and mostly only be better off by the lower property tax base…  The $30K less in mortgage I might have at bottom would make me around $100 per month richer after taxes.  That assumes interest rates stay where they are today.  If they go up, the advantage is wiped out, at least temporarily, until rates return again to levels they are today. 

I want to wait, but already being an owner, the advantages of waiting are considerably muted.

Astute Observation by lendingmaestro
2008-02-11 06:00 PM

Damn, you’re right.  That house looks like it was designed by the Iranian HGTV design team

Astute Observation by mmg
2008-02-11 05:57 PM

Ipo, I dont know how much the place you like is worth but offering 60-70k only, man have some ba**s, how about 100-150K   :mrgreen:

for 4k per month, I sure hope it is at least 3000 sf with a view.  8)

Astute Observation by belle waring
2008-02-11 05:32 PM

I am a longtime lurker moved to post for the first time: don’t do it, ipoplaya! I feel like I’m watching a horror movie in which the hot chick decides to go check out what made that noise in the old abandoned house. just walk away! can’t you sit your wife down to read the IHB archives for a couple of days? it’s true that moving is a big hassle and many people (like my husband) particularly detest it. nonetheless, if you offered her $100,000 to move twice in three years surely she would take it, right? that’s just what you’ll be offering her if you rent for a few more years. in my moderately well-formed opinion.

Astute Observation by IrvineResident
2008-02-11 04:55 PM

good catch, I have passed by this one few times, this is across a supermarket where I shop often.
the water thing looks ridiculous to us. the owner must have run out of idea on how to fool a knife catcher

Astute Observation by shiny
2008-02-11 04:55 PM

It was just a few months ago when ipop would have posited that a similar stucco box would rent for at least 2900.  now he is down to 2600.  I say he is still bubbly but is getting there.

Astute Observation by zornundo
2008-02-11 04:54 PM

TMI = too much information

Astute Observation by Kirk
2008-02-11 04:28 PM

I’ve got some bad news for everyone. The last time I drove by this place the water feature was turned off. :-(

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1397186

Astute Observation by tonye
2008-02-11 04:11 PM

Check this one

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1207210

It’s a custom home in Shady Canyon.  &b/11ba.  From the taxes you can see that it’s valued at just under 3MIL.  The building is worth about 1MIL.

But they want 9MIL for their own Persian Palace.

QHill looks bad, a lot of SFHs with empty interiors and WTF prices still above their selling price in 04 and 05.

And atomic bomb waiting to happen.

But, Shady Canyon looks like a MIRV’d assemblage of thermonuclear weapons.

Astute Observation by tonye
2008-02-11 03:59 PM

Finally, the Dead Return to Irvine…. I hope the cops don’t come in busting the site.

And yes, the expectation should be that ALL homes built in Irvine after 04 will be underwater price wise.  If you think about that… all of those homes in TRidge sitting at 300 feet above sea level will be underwater…

Of course, this doesn’t mean that all mortages will be underwater, but the home prices will.

As I noted many times earlier, new homes were overpriced since ‘02.  By ‘04 they were hopelessly on Mars.

Astute Observation by ipoplaya
2008-02-11 03:50 PM

Uh-oh, I found a house I like…  I think I can get it for $50-75K below current market pricing.  Economics work out such that we’ll should be able to keep our pre-tax spend monthly spend to under $4K.  Will mean we are spending roughly $900 per month after the additional tax benefit to acquire 1000 more sf, two more bedrooms, and an extra bathroom.  Mrs. IPO wants to put an offer in and I think I might actually agree with her this time…

Astute Observation by CapitalismWorks
2008-02-11 03:44 PM

I would like to comment on the down payment requirement.  After contacting several lenders over the past few weeks, it is apparent that 5% down is sufficient.  The lenders do demand an extra 10% for those areas that have demonstrated “falling values”, however this limitation seems to be largely irrelevant for lending in Irvine (Talega and Ladera were both mentioned).

If you doubt it, try calling a few lenders and getting pre-qualified…

Astute Observation by CapitalismWorks
2008-02-11 03:40 PM

The dude abides.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2008-02-11 03:18 PM

Troop is a she.

Astute Observation by lendingmaestro
2008-02-11 03:14 PM

Hey Realtard….use the F’ing spell check!!  OMG this is more than I can take.

When I was in college, one of the best finance professors I had was a stickler when it came to spelling.  It was a class where we had to do pretty extensive research papers and presentations on companies.  He made it very clear that the worst thing you could do when presenting anything that will be read by colleagues or clients is not proofread.

I almost want to call the agent, schedule a visit, and present he/she with this listing.  I would say, “I refuse to purchase anything from such an incompetent, lazy individual.  Learn how to read and write.“

Astute Observation by surfing in newport
2008-02-11 02:37 PM

It’s a Condo so the GRM should be closer to 130 than 200. I think we will still see another 20% off in this market.

1/2 mil for a condo in the middle of a bunch of other condo’s that look the same that are next to a busy freeway….think about it. Think about the income and down payment required.

Astute Observation by BD
2008-02-11 02:14 PM

IR -

What do you think the impacts to housing prices will be with all of the “interventions” underway by both the government and private industry?  Will all of the Rate freezes and foreclosure freezes etc. put a floor into the downward sprial we are witnessing?  Or, will it create a Japan-like RE market here with prices drifting slowly down over 10+ year period to find fundamental support?  I’m curious about your thoughts and the group’s thoughts on this matter.  I’m positive things will find fundamental support based on real incomes and debt ratios but, these efforts could take a 5 year problem and turn it into a 10 or 20 year problem. 

BD

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2008-02-11 02:06 PM

The IAC apartments are overpriced relative to what is available from private landlords. Of course, they come with on-site amenities and responsive maintenance service, so there is some justification for the higher rates. Plus, IAC grinds on rents every year to capture the highest possible revenue; although, right now they are having some vacancy issues which are slowing the rate of rental increase.

Astute Observation by momopi
2008-02-11 01:52 PM

Quail Hill Trail:
http://www.irvineranchlandreserve.org/images/QuailHillGuiderev9.pdf

I actually don’t mind not having much of a yard, because I hate mowing the grass.  Or if the HOA takes care of it, that’s fine with me too.  I enjoy having a HOA take care of everything in the exterior for condos.

If you really want to see a lot of grass, you can take the 2 mile hike around Quail Hill trail behind the fire station.  They have a lot of nice trails, parks, and open space for that community, but it’s kinda of off to the side and not in the middle (of the community).

I also worry about fire hazards, but fortunately I don’t live too close to it.  Close enough to walk to, but not too close in case of fire.

That Aliso Viejo condo looks nice, but I don’t see a lot of guest parking from the street photo?  If it had a full drive way, I wouldn’t worry about it.  But it doesn’t.

Astute Observation by ipoplaya
2008-02-11 01:44 PM

That seems like a very good deal considering what people pay to live in IAC apartments…  1200sf 2/2 apartments at Quail Ridge and Quail Meadow rent for $2200-2300.  Getting 600 extra sf seems like a fabulous bargin for only $200 more.

Astute Observation by IrvineResident
2008-02-11 01:18 PM

Similar home in Aliso Viejo for 130K below 2004 price, 251$/sqft):

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1469788

45 Trofello LN
Aliso Viejo, CA 92656
Price: $399,000

Sales History
Aug 27, 1998 $179,500
Oct 28, 2004 $529,000

Beds:  3
Baths:  3
Sq. Ft.:  1,592
$/Sq. Ft.: $251
Lot Size:  - 
Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1999
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Aliso Viejo
County: Orange
MLS#: S521233
Status: Active
On Redfin: 1 day

Astute Observation by NanoWest
2008-02-11 12:28 PM

I’m am so happy for your dog…....

Astute Observation by EdTheRed
2008-02-11 12:24 PM

Nice post, but you butchered Robert Hunter’s lyrics, and this will not stand, man:

Must be getting early
Clocks are running late
Paint by number morning sky
Looks so phony

Dawn is breaking everywhere
Light a candle, curse the glare
Draw the curtains
I don’t care ‘cause
It’s all right

I will get by / I will get by
I will get by / I will survive

I see you’ve got your list out
Say your piece and get out
Yes I get the gist of it
but it’s all right

Sorry that you feel that way
The only thing there is to say
Every silver lining’s got a
Touch of grey

I will get by / I will get by
I will get by / I will survive

It’s a lesson to me
The Ables and the Bakers and the C’s
The ABC’s we all must face
And try to keep a little grace

It’s a lesson to me
The deltas and the east and the freeze
The ABC’s we all think of
Try to give a little love.

I know the rent is in arrears
The dog has not been fed in years
It’s even worse than it appears
but it’s all right.

Cow is giving kerosene
Kid can’t read at seventeen
The words he knows are all obscene
but it’s all right

I will get by / I will get by
I will get by / I will survive

The shoe is on the hand it fits
There’s really nothing much to it
Whistle through your teeth and spit
‘cause it’s all right.

Oh well a Touch Of Grey
Kind of suits you anyway.
That was all I had to say
It’s all right.

I will get by / I will get by
I will get by / I will survive
We will get by / We will get by
We will get by / We will survive

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2008-02-11 12:16 PM

In spring of 2007, there was one of these available for rent for $2,500.

Astute Observation by 7
2008-02-11 12:02 PM

I am so glad that these places have practically no lawn/yard so that over grown grass would never be a problem for the neighbors

Astute Observation by ipoplaya
2008-02-11 11:28 AM

Quail Hill is foreclosure central Fair.  There have been at least 7-8 places in QH that went back to the bank since the summer with a number of more in the pipeline…

Astute Observation by Major Schadenfreude
2008-02-11 11:20 AM

D’oh, I forgot an ‘i’ in quail.

Astute Observation by Major Schadenfreude
2008-02-11 11:19 AM

Qual Hill’s new motto:

“Why live in Newport by the water when you can be under it in Qual Hill?“

Astute Observation by ipoplaya
2008-02-11 11:02 AM

There is no way that place rents out at $2300.  I think someone would likely pay $2600-2800 to rent it.  It’s a sub 200 GRM at list.  If the buyer picked it up at $500K flat, it would be around 185 GRM based on today’s rents.

It will be interesting to see the tug o’ war on rent prices.  You’ll have rental supply overhang from all the foreclosures and tighter credit, but likely higher inflation tending to push costs up. 

The markets sure seem to be betting more on inflation vs. a huge recession…

Astute Observation by Genius
2008-02-11 10:37 AM

He’s asking for a more vivid description :D

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2008-02-11 10:20 AM

In Fla, and I guess Cali, where there are sooo many foreclosures, it’s not shameful to talk about any more and people are talking about it.  Of course, the average Joe and Juana are not necessarily going to connect more foreclosures with the value of their own house going down, until the house down the block gets empty and the bank never cuts the grass.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2008-02-11 10:15 AM

This was on Sunday, and there were a lot of 40% off sales.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2008-02-11 10:15 AM

TMI?

Astute Observation by Alan
2008-02-11 09:56 AM

Lets not underestimate the business from the wedding registry.  They get a lot of wedding business because there aren’t a lot of viable alternatives e.g. Target?  (I hear Home Depot has a wedding registry… dishwasher, washing machine, power tools), I wanted to register at Rodger Dunn but that didn’t go over well!!)

Astute Observation by Stupid
2008-02-11 09:53 AM

Home prices in the state of denial

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080207/020708_homeowners_views.html?.v=10&.pf=real-estate

Astute Observation by lendingmaestro
2008-02-11 09:50 AM

My dog poops in this yard.  There is no noise at all in Quail Hill, unless you are outside at 1 am on a cold night, then you can hear the freeway in the distance.

Astute Observation by George8
2008-02-11 09:45 AM

Buying Quail Paradise by investors for renting purpose is still loooong way away, if ever.

Even for today’s steal price of $525k, the GRM is still a whopping 228 assuming monthly rent of $2300.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-02-11 09:34 AM

It’s sort of like the feeling I got when I snooped at my neighbors rent bill at my apartment complex.  I saw that they were paying about 100.00 a month less than I was for more or less the same apartment.  I thought to myself “Hey this is B.S!  I’m being screwed out of 100$ a month!“.

I’m guessing that reaction can’t be too far off from when you see the new neighbors move in; knowing that they paid 200K less for their house than you paid for yours.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-02-11 09:26 AM

“Manual garage door with chrome stainless steel handle.  Great for exercise!!!!!

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-02-11 09:24 AM

I love it!

Astute Observation by lowrydr310
2008-02-11 09:01 AM

Interesting point, Mark. As a former Irvine resident, I still have a hard time accepting the fact that someone would pay $2500 to rent a 3/3 condo. Just a decade ago, you could rent a relatively large newer house for less than that.

It’s hard to believe how things went up as fast as they did. It’s even harder to predict how and when this mess will unfold.

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2008-02-11 08:59 AM

I shop at the Macy’s Men store at South Coast as well and like their selection.
As Alan mentioned above, they have 15%-20% off sales frequently, at least once per month, which is typically when I go. Mainly purchase work attire there and prefer Nordstroms for jeans and casual attire. Bloomingdales has plenty of gorgeous women working their but it’s a little over the top. I could do without the trance/ techno music in some of their men’s departments and the faux runway shows they put on serve no real purpose, other than eye candy.

Astute Observation by gjw
2008-02-11 08:45 AM

I think I know what you are getting at 12xuser, but we all take financial stress differently and in many cases even if there are no technical reasons to be stressed we make up stuff.

There are as many assumptions on the other side as well, such as:

How many owners (money renters) took out ARM’s/optionARM’s/liar loans?
How many of the owners stretched their finances just to move into Q.H?
How many were wise and locked in their mortgage at a reasonable rate?
How many owners can ignore the constant talk about falling values, the empty houses and the bankruptcy bus driving through their neighbourhood?

Astute Observation by Trooper
2008-02-11 08:38 AM

Underwear and elastic pants !  TMI Liz !  wink

Astute Observation by hb
2008-02-11 08:38 AM

What scared me was going to the Home Depot on El Toro Sunday afternoon (yesterday) and it was EMPTY.  No waiting, associates standing around ready to help.  For the last few years going to HD on a Sunday afternoon meant a jammed store and a long wait in line.  Yesterday, we had the place to ourselves.  Recession, anyone?

Astute Observation by springmom
2008-02-11 08:32 AM

ROTFL! That’s perfect.

Astute Observation by hb
2008-02-11 08:32 AM

It’s a “gourmet” garage door that has been intentially “distressed” to give that Special Designer Touch!.  ;^)

Astute Observation by momopi
2008-02-11 08:29 AM

Macy’s is one of my favorite stores to shop.  However, the quality of the merchandise varies by location.  I prefer Macy’s for men at South Coast, and Macy’s at Newport Fashion Island 2nd.  If you compare the shoe department between Macy’s at Cerritos Mall vs. South Coast, you’ll know what I mean.

Astute Observation by momopi
2008-02-11 08:26 AM

The Quail Hill shopping center and its restaurants do fairly well during lunch time.  I work on Sand Canyon and it’s always a problem finding parking there for lunch, if you get there too late.  The quality of the food served there is actually so-so, but better than another trip to Carl’s Jr.  They do have my favorite flower shop however.

I’ve never eaten there for dinner, so donno about how well they do at night.  They do have enough banks (Wells Fargo, Wamu, etc) and the Cox cable office to bring in additional foot traffic.

On the weekends, I go hiking at the Quail Hill trails.  It’s actually pretty nice after the rain, when everything is green.

Astute Observation by mark
2008-02-11 08:19 AM

I think $2,500 may be on the low-end.  You can’t currently rent a new 1,800+ sq ft, 3 bed, 3 bath, with an attached garage townhome in Irvine for less than $2,500. 

I’m not saying that means the price won’t drop further, or that rents won’t drop either.  But if rents stay as high as they are in Irvine, catching a falling knife at this point may not cut you too badly.

Astute Observation by no_vaseline
2008-02-11 08:18 AM

My aunt lived in Homestead before Hugo (remember the one house that didn’t blow down?  That was hers!)  and I remember her bringing presents from Burdines.  She hated it after ‘81 or so because the Cubans were little and she couldn’t get anything that fit anymore (as a sizable white woman) because they’d changed the merchendise.

I’m sure Macy’s will get it figured out.

Astute Observation by Alan
2008-02-11 08:15 AM

My experience with Macys is that people wait for the sales.  Traffic will be slow on a weekday and non-sale weekends, I don’t see anything out of the ordinary based on one visit during a non-sale day.

Astute Observation by no_vaseline
2008-02-11 08:14 AM

I bet the traffic at rush hour is quite bearable.

Around 9pm the freeway moves at 80 or so, and THEN you can hear them.

Astute Observation by FairEconomist
2008-02-11 08:05 AM

Am I seeing an orange notice on the front door in the garage pick? Foreclosures in Quail Hill already?

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2008-02-11 07:59 AM

That’s 95%

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2008-02-11 07:59 AM

As per your shopping center comment, my view from Space Coast Florida:

Got a couple of ten dollar certificates from Macy’s Visa, ‘cause I charged my new dental crown on it.  Went to Macy’s hoping to find a pair of slacks with an elastic waistband which was not from China to net against the certificates.

Found NOTHING.  Very few people were shopping in the store, virtually all, say 905% were while ladies over 40.  Virtually none of the merchandise was aimed at these shoppers.  I doubt that the goods would be acceptable to the young and trendy either.  Really a bad mix.
And I fail to see how the store expects to make it to the next Christmas season with so few shoppers. 

Bought some virtually free underwear, and left irritated.

We went to walmart too, to get an electronic toy from Nntendo for the hub—only place that had them.  Lots and lots of shoppers there.  But that includes a grocery store too.

Macy’s used to be Burdines, a home grown dept store, and lots of people including me are bitter about the take over.  It helps to know that people need a different mix of clothing here than elsewhere.  Also, did it escape Macy’s attention that a lot of retired people move here, and they tend to be a tad older than average?

Seems like even the retailers are off track.

Astute Observation by Cal's Caddy
2008-02-11 07:34 AM

Although the Tall Oak property is an Obscene WTF listing, it really can’t be compared to this condo. SFR should sell for a little more; Too bad not as much as the “Senior Exec. of the Homebuilder” would like.

On the subject of Quail Hill, my wife has expressed this neighborhood as one of the ones on her list when we buy our next home. My question is if either of these scenarios is more likely: 1) With home prices dropping and people stuck underwater in their properties, will it be more likely that most of our neighbors will be home owners rather than renters?
OR 2) With home prices dropping, will the homes for sale be bought up by investors with the intent of renting them out?

Astute Observation by 12xuser
2008-02-11 07:20 AM

I’ve been reading the IHB for a few weeks now, and I have really learned a lot about the state of the current housing/credit crunch.  That said, I’m still a noob, a noob with a question:

Does the fact that everyone is underwater really cause problems for the neighborhood?  How many people bought homes there thinking that they would be selling soon?  How many bought their homes thinking that it was a nice neighborhood, someplace they wanted to live until their kids were out of school at least, maybe forever? 

If you bought your home for the long term, it’s a little psychologically distressing to see it lose a lot of its paper value, but it doesn’t change your payments, and assuming you don’t lose your job or get transferred and have to sell, it doesn’t put you into financial distress.

Astute Observation by 7
2008-02-11 07:14 AM

Actually, during rush hour, the freeway is just like shopping mall parking, and the noise is pretty low.

Astute Observation by JimmyJohnson
2008-02-11 07:09 AM

“ I am sure mortgage was substantially higher then rent and to top it off, consider HOA, Property Taxes, etc. I think loss is substantial given the fact that the person carried it for three full years, ouch!“

Dont forget the bruised EGO.

HAR HAR HAR

Astute Observation by JimmyJohnson
2008-02-11 07:06 AM

“If you’re going to sell a property featuring a garage door, at least show a decent picture of it?“

Holly Nguyen must be at it again…

snicker.

Astute Observation by ochomehunter
2008-02-11 07:04 AM

Well, I am sure $621,000 purchase and holding it for three years is a lot of money.  I am sure mortgage was substantially higher then rent and to top it off, consider HOA, Property Taxes, etc. I think loss is substantial given the fact that the person carried it for three full years, ouch!

Astute Observation by George8
2008-02-11 06:59 AM

Loud but constant noise is no longer a noise after a while. The buyer should celebrate for making a steal at the time being considering the following listing:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1290025

337 Tall Oak
Irvine, CA 92603
Price: $925,000
Beds:  2
Baths:  2.5
Sq. Ft.:  1,800
$/Sq. Ft.: $514

Reducing prices: (chasing a following market)
Nov 14, 2007 $1,059,000
Dec 01, 2007 $975,000
Jan 27, 2008 $925,000

After all, it is in a corner of Quail Paradise in Irvine.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2008-02-11 06:58 AM

How about this one:

Underwater

Astute Observation by cyberpunk
2008-02-11 06:43 AM

It quite literally “on the freeways.“ On the corner of the 133 and 405 to be exact. I can bet the noise must be deafening at rush hour.

Astute Observation by cyberpunk
2008-02-11 06:39 AM

You should make this a new “underwater” icon for everyones schadenfreude.

Astute Observation by sunsetbeachguy
2008-02-11 06:36 AM

Thanks for the pointer.  I wouldn’t mind living in Quail Hill, in 2011.

It is a bit further of a commute but it is on the freeway instead of arterials.

Astute Observation by George8
2008-02-11 06:27 AM

I wonder if there was any financing details on the current owner? Is it a short sale or reo?

Astute Observation by Mike
2008-02-11 06:15 AM

Speaking of the garage door, I don’t know if it’s just the resolution of the picture or something, but it looks both crooked and dented.  If you’re going to sell a property featuring a garage door, at least show a decent picture of it?

Besides, why no interior shots of the gourmet kitchen (they didn’t say it was in the listing, but granite countertops?).  Wonder if the interior is trashed or something?

Astute Observation by awgee
2008-02-11 06:12 AM

“The last time that many were underwater, Noah built a boat.

IR - You crack me up.

Astute Observation by mav
2008-02-11 05:38 AM

It sounds like renting anything from a private landlord in Quail Hill would be a really bad idea.

At this price… if this place rents for $2500 (maybe $2300?) and these people put 20% down they won’t be getting killed too bad.  At least payments would be fairly close to rent…. not totally obscene like days past…

It’s hard to imagine you would need to move into a condo like this right now…. and could not wait a year.
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