Gimme Shelter ** UPDATE 5 **

Aug 9th, 2008   by IrvineRenter  in Rollback

Update 5 -- I received word that this property finally closed escrow at $1,300,000. The total loss was $529,000 after a 6% commission. They avoided a short sale, but they lost every penny of their equity. Go tell these owners that real estate always goes up...

Update 4 -- The saga continues... This house was relisted again for $1,359,000. The total loss stands at $473,540. After putting $525,400 down, I imagine this seller did not think they would be risking a short sale. Their equity is all but gone...

Update 3 -- The price is down to $1,499,000 and still no takers. Total loss stands at $341,940 after commissions.

Update 2 -- This house was pulled from the MLS and relisted at $1,549,000. This seller must realize they are a bagholder and they are getting really motivated to save whatever they can of their equity. Right now, if they get their new asking price, they stand to lose $294,940 after a 6% commission.

Update 1 -- The asking price on this house just dropped from $1,700,000 to $1,650,000. That is a motivated seller. If today's seller gets their asking price, they stand to lose $203,000.

Gimme ShelterOh, a storm is threat'ning
My very life today
If I don't get some shelter
Oh yeah, I'm gonna fade away

Gimme Shelter -- The Rolling Stones

Link to Video

Exhausted buyers, tightening credit, excessive inventory, foreclosures: Is the perfect storm threatening our real estate market? As far as finding shelter goes, you could do far worse than today's property. It is a high-end house in Woodbury. So far the more expensive stuff in Woodbury has maintained its denial, but lately there have been a few properties showing a true desire for a transaction. Today's seller has been on the market over 90 days, and they are lowering their price to try to move it.

33 Triple Leaf Front 33 Triple Leaf Kitchen

Old Asking Price: $1,700,000IrvineRenter

New Asking Price: $1,650,000

Purchase Price: $1,751,000

Purchase Date: 12/30/2005

Address: 33 Triple Leaf, Irvine, CA 92620

1st Loan $1,225,600
Downpayment $525,400

Beds: 4
Baths: 4.5
Sq. Ft.: 3,750
$/Sq. Ft.: $453
Lot Size: 6,348 sq. ft.
Year Built: 2005
Stories: 2
Type: Single Family Residence
View: Park or Green BeltRollback
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Woodbury
MLS#: S472319
Status: Active
On Redfin: 215 days
Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, "The Jewel of Woodbury! Ready to deal. Rich woods on floor, ceilings, p aneling etc. Gorgeous paint schemes, tile designs. All Viking Kitchen, open bright floor plan typical of Juliet's Balcony homes. Surround sound, huge master bath, all bedrooms are suites. Designer window treatments. Across from a private park. Walk to parks and 6 pools, elementary school, shopping center. Woodbury's amenities are incredible and the lifestyle resort like."

.

.

If today's seller gets their asking price, they stand to lose $153,000 in less than two years. They have the equity to absorb the blow, but it must still be quite disheartening.

I like Woodbury. It is at the cutting edge of master plan community design. The amenities are first rate, the architecture and landscaping is attractive, and the community center is inviting. It would be a great place to call home -- at much lower prices.

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Crown moulding
2008-02-21 06:39 PM

I would maybe consider if it’s around $1M

Astute Observation by JustLooking
2008-02-16 07:08 PM

I was in the neighborhood so I dropped by the open house today.  Agent says that there’s 5 offers on the house.  About time… although I’d bet there all major $ below the reduced asking price.  I’m thinking somewhere in the $1.2M range.

Astute Observation by MacInTheBox
2008-02-10 06:54 PM

Actually, it’s the reverse. Most Asians don’t like north-facing houses, because during Winter, wind blows from the north while the sun is on the south side, and vice versa. That tends to make the house colder during winter and hotter during summer. I think that part of Feng Shui makes sense.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2008-02-10 05:40 AM

Nainam--haven’t you applied for homestead?  If you did, your property taxes are capped at 3% a year, which is affordable.  Now your taxes will be going down a bit due to the change in law.  You can apply for 08 before the beginning of March.  If you didn’t apply for previous years it is too late.  But you can contest your valuation if you apply before the deadline.  You will get a document in Sept which says “This is not a bill.”
At the bottom it will give the deadlines.  Cost $15.00.  You need to bring some proof.

Also, if you pay your own insurance, you can get an inspection and maybe lower your insurance.  If it’s in the HOA fees, maybe you can get the association to have it done and lower everybody’s fees.

Astute Observation by George8
2008-02-09 09:38 PM

I guess not. The message is out there even Irvine is crashing - the higher the worse. This one was built and bought almost at the exact peak - buyers are waiting 40-50% from the top - that is $900k- $1.1 M on this one.

Astute Observation by vernonlee
2008-02-09 08:19 PM

Couldn’t reach the article you reference - link broken.

I don’t know what the solution is.  And I agree with the sentiment behind what you say about letting people pay the consequences of bad actions.

Trouble is, the more this spirals down, the more homeowners who didn’t do anything wrong are drawn into the funnel.  If I had done the smart thing, gradually building up equity in a home I could actually afford, only to see my neighbors’ bad decisions wreck the value of my house such that I was stuck as much as they were, I wouldn’t think a hard landing was fair - because it would mean a hard landing for me too.

So who knows what should be done.
But the rationale for action* is to stanch the bleeding that will kill the whole patient, not just let a limb go.

*actually, the rationale for intervention probably includes a very strong interest in protecting financial systems and lenders.

Astute Observation by Major Schadenfreude
2008-02-09 07:08 PM

IR,

A suggestion:  If you put the date right next to the word “Update”, we will see at a glance the progression of price drops over time.

Keep up the great work!

Astute Observation by Mark Andresen
2008-02-09 07:02 PM

Hasn’t every civilization walked away from their homes and communities when things got bad? And have we hit the worst yet?....

Astute Observation by nainam
2008-02-09 06:39 PM

Yep, we downsized a couple of years ago into a condo-villa in Florida and are now wondering how long we can afford it.  (I’m not talking about a posh place, it’s 20 years old and we paid under $300,000.  Most of the people here are in their 80’s, ready for assisted living, but they can’t get their villas sold.)

We are hanging in there but every year the condo fees go up as does the real estate tax.  And we are in our 60’s so I would guess our “fixed income” is better than those 80-year-olds.

There is a massive exit of senior citizens from Florida and a massive inventory of $1 million-plus condos that no one can sell and no one dares to buy.  It’s a scary mess, even at the high end.  And it’s pretty scary down at our low end, too.

Still, just speaking for my husband and myself, we find that our “little” villa more than meets our needs.  We don’t even use our living and dining rooms---our kitchen/family room and our bedroom are the only places we use (besides our two baths, which are nothing to write home about.)

The trouble with the maga-mansions and the mega-condos is that it takes a LOT of work to keep them clean!  My husband and I, once a week, can scrub our small space from top to bottom.  So, we are for the moment very happy, unless the cost of living goes up so high that we can’t even afford our little villa.  I kind of think that is going to happen.

Thank God we have children in Canada who are residents and ready, willing and able to bring us up there.  Hate to leave Florida but you just watch, the American elderly won’t be able to afford Florida anymore so it will become a German/British/Canadian resort.

It’s at times like this that I’m so glad I travelled all over the world when it was a safe and easy thing to do.  Nice memories and sure, I wish I had ended up being mega-rich.  On the other hand...living in Florida in a l villa is delightful for the time being, and then there’s always Canada.

Astute Observation by Let's go Anteaters
2008-02-09 05:00 PM

i thought that ‘sympathy for the devil’ was the tune as he was killed.  a little more poetic, though misanthropy generally trumps misogyny.

Astute Observation by Mooser
2008-02-09 12:30 PM

Many asians don’t like south facing house.

I’m real fussy about which way the windows are oriented myself. Windows not oriented with at least some regard to the suns track in the different seasons can just about ruin a house up here in Warshington. It may not be as critical down there, come to think of it. If the windows are right it’s cooler in the summer, warmer and brighter through the dark months. If they’re wrong the house is a dark hole all year, ‘cept when it bakes in the summer.

Astute Observation by Mooser
2008-02-09 12:26 PM

“Ready to Deal” means, methinks, that they will sell you the place for almost nothing, as long as you don’t tell what it was and allow them to pretend they got their asking price.

Astute Observation by Doofus
2008-02-09 12:20 PM

Homeownership for me, but not for thee!  I guess that would be the exclusive, country club version of the American Dream?

Astute Observation by Judicious1
2008-02-09 11:37 AM

Regardless of what happened, and I agree it is a very sad story, the neighbors won’t like what it does to the value of their homes when it eventually sells at a drastically reduced price.

Astute Observation by Judicious1
2008-02-09 11:34 AM

“Will consider lease” in the Redfin ad - might be a better way to go for the next few years.

Astute Observation by GrewUpInIrvine
2008-02-09 11:21 AM

I’d probably bite if it got down to 1.1m.  But then again, that’s just about my limit.  Love the floors.  Surprised that they didn’t go with marble/granit counters however.

Astute Observation by FairEconomist
2008-02-09 09:55 AM

The new listing earned a “Gourmet Kitchen” award! Large and spacious even!

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2008-02-09 09:31 AM

This is still a pretty house.  Will another 10% off cause someone to buy?

Astute Observation by not_foolish
2007-11-25 09:12 AM

Yes, it is true. You feel sadness when you enter that house. I have been there inside that home with broker. You could see lot of toys and children pictures and Wedding picture etc. Home looked like somebody left in a hurry
When I saw a big picture of the guy kept like memorium and also saw the same guy in the wedding picture, I asked the broker whats going on? Then only he told me the guy died with 7 months of buying the house. I told him he should have disclosed that before I come to see the house. Broker says he is required to disclose only if I’m ready to make an offer

Astute Observation by hmmmm
2007-11-25 02:19 AM

I also know about the ethnicity of the owners. I just didn’t know the details. That is sad if it’s true about the young couple.

Astute Observation by awgee
2007-11-24 11:03 AM

That is a sad story.  And I am not being sarcastic.

Astute Observation by not_foolish
2007-11-24 10:19 AM

Besides this is a south facing house. Many asians don’t like south facing house. They prefer east or north but west is ok not south. Don’t bash me for this information.

Astute Observation by not_foolish
2007-11-24 09:55 AM

I know bit more about 33 triple leaf. Because I have met the broker and I have seen the house. This house was first listed at 1,899,000 in March. There was another house in next street 34 shepard and that was also listed by same broker for 1,850,000. So I have seen both houses.  The 34 Shepard kept reducing the price from 1,850,000 upto 1,499,000; but didn’t sell and I think finally he took it off the market. The 33 triple leaf is a sad story it was bought buy a young vietanames couple with small two children.  The was model from the builder John laing homes.The guy was young lawyer, but sadly he died of heart attack in his office. So the lady with kids is living in San Dieago with family. I asked the broker why she is selling and broker needs to disclose any death or anything that happened in the house. So it is a sad story that this house has.

Astute Observation by woodbury house renter
2007-11-24 09:44 AM

irvine vs. boston:  comes down to incomparable weather and people that understand the letter ‘r’.

Astute Observation by woodbury house renter
2007-11-24 09:35 AM

absolutely agree, however with the center of gravity now being the town center I am starting to feel like the Sand Canyon side is the “front” and Jeffrey is the “back”, especially since the land between the Jeffrey open space trail and the houses on Vintage remains undeveloped.

Astute Observation by woodbury house renter
2007-11-24 09:32 AM

re: ethnic demographics of Woodbury:  yes there are more people of Asian decent then in a typical American community - however there is actually a good mix of all backgrounds with some underrepresentation.  Stop by the beautiful Woodbury elementary campus if you want to get a feel for it, amazing how kids don’t seem to notice the differences.  If only we could learn from them.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2007-11-24 07:11 AM

You mean deed in lieu of foreclosure, and no it doesn’t save your credit, altho it is marginally better than a foreclosure.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2007-11-24 07:10 AM

This is still a very pretty house, and still way beyond the means of all but say the upper 1%.  Who would want something much more fabulous.

Astute Observation by mike mechanic
2007-10-03 10:45 AM

Yes. Move to NC. It has everything that SoCal has, except crime, expensive housing, and anything bad. It’s all good in the NC!

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-10-01 02:32 PM

Wait.. that’s insulting.  There are no K-Mart or Walmarts in Irvine.

Now if you had said a Costco parking lot, well that would be somehow more appropriate.  ( Bulk quality at a discount ).

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-10-01 02:30 PM

My kids walked to TR Elementary and now Uni.  They did take the bus to rancho.

As far as the partying west of the 405… You gotta be kidding, right?  Last time I checked, there were no homes rented to college students anywhere in my neighborhood.

Also, while it’s plenty hot and cold out there, the weather is significantly milder towards the coast.

As far as proximity to the core of Irvine… let me see.. TR is closer to City Hall than all of those homes way out by Jeffrey, out there by the ISUD bus depot.  That used to be the end of the world when we go to get breakfast at the “old town”.

And offices… well that depends, eh?  I work off the 405 so that pretty much solves my proximity to work issue.

Astute Observation by ipoplaya
2007-09-30 09:15 PM

I agree, Woodbury is overpriced, and will come down.  It came online at the peak of the market (or just past) so it got bid up grossly.  The geography is nothing to speak of, but I disagree that it has no anchor.  It’s built around a large and very nice commons area and brand new elementary school.  Not many places in Irvine where you can buy a new/newer house and get to walk a short distance to an elementary school in IUSD. 

The recreational amenities are great there and it has more of a “community” feel that other newers area in Irvine IMHO.  If the new elementary school was traditional vs. year-round, we’d consider Woodbury… The hills of TR are nice, but I’d rather be closer to the office and Irvine’s core.  I see TR as somewhere to buy in when the kids go off to college and there is time to appreciate those views.

Astute Observation by westparker
2007-09-30 08:01 PM

1) It’s wishful thinking (and I’m still wishing) they turn El Torro into an Airport.  OC is so underserved that an airport would make tremendous sence.  Too bad the NIMBY types don’t see it that way… (and yes, I live in Irvine)

2) To the reply about Jim Rodgers being Anti-US:  Considering what the foreign markets have returned in US dollar terms, I’m sure his investments are up 300 to 500% more than the US market.  His calls on Gold and the Dollar have been right on this year.  I’m not a fan of his politics either, but he is a good investor.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2007-09-30 09:11 AM

Re:  Florida tax sales:

Yep you can make a bunch of money but---

I am presently doing a quiet title on a tax sale.

The courts are making it harder for the tax buyers to keep the property.

My defendant is saying he didn’t know, so he should keep the property.  He’s getting 5 times his purchase price, bidding was so vigorous.  There’s no mtg.

He didn’t pay taxes from 2001 thru 2005, except he did pay 2003.  Claims that was a mistake, should have been 01.

He didn’t bother to notify the tax authorities of his address.  His name is spelled wrongly on the deed.

And get this--his real estate/mtg broker buddy was supposed to pay the taxes, and didn’t, exept for 2003 (maybe) The owner never checked even once to see if this was happening.  The buddy says he tried to pay the taxes, in 06, but has no proof except a copy of a check.  The broker buddy claims he didn’t know that the check (for more than $16,000) didn’t clear his bank, because he never balanced his acct!!!

And the judge feels sorry for the owner and tried to persuade me we should settle this by my guy getting all his money back (but no profits) and just deeding the property over.  I’m planning on an appeal, tho we haven’t had a final hearing.

My client and I honestly thought the owner was dead.  Frankly, I would have advised to wait a couple of years to quiet title had I known this would have happened.  My client wanted to start building a house on this property, and strangely enough, still does.  It’s for his brother to live in.

Talk about people not taking the consequences of stupidity.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2007-09-30 08:19 AM

It’s too big.  No meanful bail out is possible.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2007-09-30 08:14 AM

This guy is right on, in the first part of his analysis.  It’s just what I have been thinking, but expressed far better than I could say it.

The last part, the Rooseveltian bail out.  There’s no use discussing the philosophy of it, because the problem is too big to be solved without excruciating pain.  The problem makes the S&L crisis and the RTC look like a walk in the park.

If we stopped the war, and slashed the defense dept’s budget in half, you might get close to having enough money.  Maybe.

Neither of those things are gonna happen.

The problem is somewhere above a Trillion dollar problem, and maybe many trillions.

Astute Observation by No_Such_Reality
2007-09-30 07:38 AM

It depends on where.  Some States, like Minnesota, have enacted a fair market value law.  Basically, if the State takes the property via tax default, they get it appaised and have to sell it for the appraised value.

Other States do tax certificates.  Florida is one of these States and they do a fairly good job of putting their information on the web.

And other places, like Orange County, have system designed to favor the old boys of the game or automatically go to the State.

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 04:52 AM

Am I right that this guy was talking about tax foreclosures (link, pls!)? That’s a totally different kind of business than foreclosures by mortgage lenders, that only result in the sale of bank-owned property. In tax foreclosures, the property is sold in an auction, starting at low prices. You might really make a good deal there sometimes.

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 04:41 AM

Sry for double posting, comments didn’t show on my browser. I suspected it was because of a WordPress spam filter, prohibiting comments with more than one link. Would be nice if one of the IHBers would simply delete the ‘surplus’ posting. Thx!

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 04:37 AM

I also have to ask if refinancing is a good idea, when the core of the problem is that the buyer paid a frivolously inflated price at the height of the bubble. Refinancing simply comes down to throwing good money after the bad. It would only result in the buyer paying much more than the property is even remotely worth. Wouldn’t it be better to call it quits, move away, and wait for prices to level out before trying it again?

Of course, this isn’t advice a mortgage broker like you likes to hear.

Astute Observation by lawyerliz
2007-09-30 04:35 AM

I just went back to the archives, and read Irvine Renter’s first post.

One response opined that the sub prime foreclosure rate would go up only a few points and so what?

Sardonic laughter here, and also a few tears.

The conclusion is that things will be far, far worse than the most
gloomy prediction in Feb, 2007.

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 04:32 AM

Refinance, short sale or foreclosure. Great. I guess most here know that without your story.
But wait, isn’t there are fourth choice? Giving back the house to the lender (I forgot that latin name for that) and walk away? Afaik this at least saves your credit rate.

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 03:47 AM

“By Marlene Bridges, REALTOR® Representing Buyers and Sellers in homes purchases and sales in South Orange County, California”

Hmm, when she urges potential homewoners to buy now, and does so as a professional, isn’t she liable if this advice will turn out to be desastrous for all the buyers acting on it?

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 02:11 AM

If you’re a Times Select customer, you’re eligible for a payback. Check this:
http://www.nytimes.com/membercenter/faq/timesselect.html#tendsqa3

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 02:10 AM

Sue, NYT subscription, a.k.a. “Times Select” ended a few days ago. Now almost everything is free, except some archived content from the pre 80s, I guess. You don’t need login for this article anymore:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/29/business/29chart.html

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 02:03 AM

Sue, afaik NYT subscription, a.k.a. “Times Select” ended a few days ago. Now almost everything is free, except some archived content from the pre 80s, I guess. You don’t need login for this article anymore:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/29/business/29chart.html

If you’re a customer, you’re eligible for a payback. you might want to check this:
http://www.nytimes.com/membercenter/faq/timesselect.html#tendsqa3

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 01:52 AM

NYT already has another story about Countrywide customers facing foreclosure:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/30/business/30country.html

Astute Observation by Gray
2007-09-30 01:48 AM

NYT reports about Countrywide customers facing foreclosure:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/30/business/30country.html?pagewanted=1

Looks like Countrywide’s support for customers isn’t really impressive. Especially when compared to other lenders. But avoiding foreclosure, whenever possible, should be in the interest of all lenders:
“A 2003 Federal Reserve study found that estimated losses on foreclosures range from 30 percent to 60 percent of the outstanding loan balance, as a result of legal fees, lost interest payments and property costs. Countrywide said it incurred $600 million in losses on loans it holds in the first six months of 2007.”

On the other hand, for avoiding foreclosure, someone has to come up with the difference between mortgage interest rates houseowners can afford and the interest rates on the market now. And Countrywide seems to be financially too hard pressed to do that.

Astute Observation by Jeff
2007-09-29 05:54 PM

Millions of Homeowners Only Have Three Choices.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com

Astute Observation by doug r
2007-09-29 04:44 PM

There’s a reason they shoot stuff like The Crow and Mario Brothers in Carolina-the labor laws. How often does a major hurricane blow through, anyway?

Astute Observation by Charles Wilson
2007-09-29 04:23 PM

What stuck out at me about this house is the tiny size of the lot. Here you’ve got a 3,700 sq ft house on a 6,300 sq ft lot. Good God, that’s an exercise in claustrophobia!

Back in the mid-’90s I had a 3,400 sq ft place on 3/4-acre (32,600 sq. ft., about 5 times the land under this overgrown shack) in a part of the Boston area (onthe Scituate-Cohasset line, right neat the ocean) that makes Irvine, California look like a Wal-Mart parking lot. (Well, actually, Irvine looks like a Wal-Mart parking lot anyway, but that’s a different discussion.)

I paid $390,000 for the place and had to put another $15,000 into it for a few things, i.e., a deck, pave the driveway, an in-ground sprinkler system. Yeah, I know prices have gone up (Zillow says my old place is worth $940K now), but $1.65 million for the Irvine place? What drugs are people on?

Oh, and don’t tell me about a park across the street or in back. I had that along with my 3/4-acre.

Astute Observation by ice weasel
2007-09-29 01:47 PM

The part of North San Diego County I would like to relocate to is loaded with fluff such as this listing.  (putting on my gramps Simpson hat) There was a time when the phrase “million dollar home” meant something.  This house is the perfect example of something that isn’t “worth” a million dollars to anyone unless that million dollars cheap money.  Being able to spit on your neighbor from your bedroom window is not an attribute of a million dollar home.  At least not where this home is located.  Hence the appropriateness of Tonye’s comment on the 405.  You may not like the ocean but it does add something to the value of a property for most people.  Drop a nice home in a clustered neighborhood inland and you have a fiasco.

Astute Observation by rocksyan99
2007-09-29 11:42 AM

I’m sure many folks who live east of the 405 would and can argue that you are full of it.  Not everyone wants to live near the ocean. I for one fail to see the allure of the ocean with it’s overcast and fog most of the year.  Then there is the traffic and the constant partying and drug culture along the coast. No thanks.  To say people were fool to buy east of the 405 could be the stupidest quote I’ve read on this board, ever.

Astute Observation by SawItComing
2007-09-29 11:07 AM

“Triple Leaf”...Ha ha Did they use that name because “poison ivy” was not so apealing?

Astute Observation by Larrygg
2007-09-29 10:37 AM

It looks like a nice house but $1.65 Mil? Even if it was priced at half of that price there would be very few that could swing the financing with todays tight lending standards.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-09-29 10:04 AM

As I noted elsewhere.  Woodbury as a whole is woefully overpriced.  It’s on the flats, far from the ocean.  As a neighborhood, it has absolutely no geographical interest and nothing to anchor it.

At least Portola is on a hillside, even if its like in a different county.

TR has the hill, TRidge has views and even Quail Hill sits on rolling hill elevated above the freeway.  There are homes in TR selling for less per square foot, and even TRidge and Quail Hill are on a race to the bottom.

There never was a “High End” east of the 405 in Irvine.  These people were fools to buy there and now they are suffering.

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-09-29 09:02 AM

For Housing, the Summer of the Unsold

http://www.nytimes.com/glogin?URI=http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/29/business/29chart.html&OQ=_rQ3D1&OP=1163b819Q2FQ5EnmXQ5EQ7D_-Q22p__!HQ5EH99Q7EQ5E9Q2BQ5EHQ2BQ5EXQ27Q22TimQ22Q22Q5EHQ2B-xQ24p!Q51x!PG

If you don’t have a nytimes subscription, there’s an excerpt here with some interesting looking graphs

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/09/housing-freefal.html

Astute Observation by IrvineHomeowner
2007-09-29 08:10 AM

Woodbury is the boondocks.

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-09-29 08:10 AM

No sign of relief in San Diego housing slump
Agents, analysts and builders all share a pessimistic outlook.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-sdhomes29sep29,1,173647.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-09-29 08:07 AM

The Unexpected Consequences of a Cooling Market
Lives Are Put on Hold as Homes Sit on the Market

http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=3655647&page=1

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-09-29 08:03 AM

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/industries/realestate/stories/DN-economist_29bus.ART.State.Edition1.35aa3f1.html

Jack Haynes, executive vice president with Countrywide Home Loans, said lenders are having a hard time interesting investors in purchasing the mortgages they make.

“Things are stacking up on everybody’s shelf,” Mr. Haynes told builders at the show. “At a certain point that will strangle the mortgage industry if it doesn’t get some relief.”

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-09-29 08:00 AM

FHA Down Payment Rule To Ban Seller Financing

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/28/AR2007092801828.html

Astute Observation by Stupid
2007-09-29 07:53 AM

I used to be 100% opposed to a bailout.

But then, after reading about various govt. help for homeowners programs in the past (ex. FHA formed to help fight off the Great Depression - http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/fhahistory.cfm - and persuade investors it was ok to lend to homeowners) that actually worked to help the economy as intended ... I’m not as sure now.

Astute Observation by Laura Louzader
2007-09-29 04:46 AM

If the proposed bailout passes, can I get bailed out of my CC debt and then go buy a $500K condo and get bailed out of my oversized debt on that?

Will casino gamblers also get bailed out of their debts and losses as well?

No??

Then the bailout shouldn’t happen.

We have to be pretty far gone morally and in the matter of a basic grasp of economics also, for the bailout proposal to get as far as it has.

Astute Observation by Laura Louzader
2007-09-29 04:43 AM

Why oh WHY are all the politicians both on the local and national level pushing bailouts for failing homeowners and secuflippers when every poll taken nationwide indicates that the majority of voters in almost every locale are vehemently opposed to a bailout for reasons related to the bad economics and intrinsic injustice of it?

From what I’m seeing and hearing and reading, 80% of the electorate is passionately opposed to bailouts for greedy, delusional, self indulgent buyers.

Certain presidential candidates, especially, need to take the temperature of the electorate before they promote bailouts. Do they listen to people out here at all?

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-25 09:25 PM

Foreclosures Force Britons to Ponder Shift to Fixed Rates

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/24/business/24home.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5087
&em&en=176293db556041d1&ex=1188273600

Facing foreclosure, and determined to avoid moving in with her mother, Ms. Whittaker found a way out in an increasingly popular arrangement here known as a “sale and rent back.”

A private company bought her home, allowing her to avoid foreclosure; then the company rented the house back to Ms. Whittaker and her partner and they did not even have to move.

The catch is that the company paid the couple less than the value of their apartment.

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-25 09:02 PM

A Psychology Lesson From the Markets
By ROBERT J. SHILLER

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/business/yourmoney/26view.html?ex=1345780800&en=f22bc73ddd26445e&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-25 08:47 PM

Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/business/yourmoney/26country.html?pagewanted=1

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-25 08:37 PM

Mortgage Mess Hurts Main Street, Beyond

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/25/AR2007082500709.html

Astute Observation by ph7balanced
2007-08-25 07:59 PM

The mere mention of bailout sickens me.  I will only support the bailout if the government is ready to give me a bonus of 2 times the amount of bailout for me being financially responsible.

Astute Observation by Trooper
2007-08-25 07:15 PM

OMG, I’m gonna barf.

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-25 04:43 PM

Can’t Decide If The Time Is Right To Buy A Home? Read This Good News For Orange County, California Home Buyers

http://activerain.com/blogsview/159381/Can-t-Decide-If

Astute Observation by Fofa Fofod
2007-08-25 04:12 PM

The North Carolina idea is a great one! Do you people have any friends you can lure to NC and get them off the Cali freeways?

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-25 03:45 PM

So much for “real estate always goes up”

Drop Foreseen in Median Price of U.S. Homes
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/business/26housing.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2007-08-25 02:32 PM

When people like this are eliminated from the market as competing bidders, the rest of us will be able to buy a house we can truly afford.

Astute Observation by arraya
2007-08-25 02:18 PM

They probably got that down payment from their last house, relized where the market was going and now want out.  Must be stressfull…

Astute Observation by Major Schadenfreude
2007-08-25 01:44 PM

“...a mortgage that will require him to make a 10 percent down payment.”

Oh no!  The horror!

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-25 12:17 PM

Inland homeowners on foreclosure tightrope

http://www.pe.com/localnews/inland/stories/PE_News_Local_D_mortgage25.3563f4d.html

Herrera said when one of her clients started house hunting in February, he pre-qualified for financing with nothing down and a rate fixed for 50 years in the mid 7 percent range, even though he had a recent bankruptcy and could not easily document his income because he is a self-employed carpenter.

A few weeks ago when that client had picked his dream house in Riverside, Herrera said, the best mortgage he could get had an interest rate in the high 8 percent range and could adjust even higher in five years. It also required a 5 percent down payment.

But Herrera said that mortgage product also was discontinued before her client could secure it and so he now is considering a mortgage that will require him to make a 10 percent down payment. To qualify, he will also have to improve his credit by waiting until October to apply, when his bankruptcy will be two years behind him.

By then, Herrera said, she fears that mortgage program also could be history.

Astute Observation by Laura Louzader
2007-08-25 09:42 AM

Dear SoCal buds and all others-

Here is the linke to the Petition Taxpayers Against Wall street and Mortgage bailout, if you have not already signed it,

http://petitiononline.com/bailout/

We have to stave this off. Here’s to restoring affordability to the SoCal and other overpriced housing markets.

Here’s to restoring personal responsibility and recognition of the risk/reward tradeoff.

Astute Observation by u
2007-08-25 09:29 AM

I have heard that, also. They, Irvine and builders, halted construction of new homes until 2010.

Astute Observation by BLT Bill
2007-08-25 09:23 AM

Several years ago my business was involved with some of the
board members at Countrywide.  When the CFO and the Bank President just walked away about a year ago it was the writing
on the wall. From that point forward the insider trading on this
equity has been beyond anything I have ever seen before.
Then last week. They burn thru 11 Billion. Then this week.
Another 2 Billion from BA at 7+%. And now we are looking at next week.  The stock is at 21 for the weekend. But I smell the same
smell that was around when New Century imploded. This is just a whole bigger dog when it goes paws up.  Unless the Fed drops rates or BAC does something dumb. The dog has had his day.
When the CEO goes on CNBC and says the crud that he did
about his own company after he has dumped about 400 Million
in insider options should be all you need know.  Next week.
Low teens.

Astute Observation by u
2007-08-25 09:18 AM

Re: Andalucia. You might want to add another $100k for upgrades and landscaping.

Astute Observation by Lost Cause
2007-08-25 08:49 AM

I know this is an Irvine blog, but why the idea that brand new everywhere is better? And those homes in NC don’t appreciate—so much for the bags of money. Living in the Bible Belt has its own unique culture. And really look carefully at the schools, especially compared to Irvine. Can I have my grain of salt now?

Astute Observation by Jeff
2007-08-25 08:39 AM

In the spirirt of democracy and a good saturday round table discussion, what is your view on the proposed bailout plans that the presidential candidates have been discussing?
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com/

Astute Observation by k.o.
2007-08-24 12:55 PM

Actually, Woodbury is off of both. You could say that the “front” side of Woodbury (the main park and clubhouse), is closer towards Jeffrey. But the “back” side of Woodbury does go along Sand Canyon, where Woodbury Court apartments are located. The perpendicular streets to Jeffrey and Sand Canyon are Trabuco and Irvine Blvd (meaning that all of Woodbury is located in this square of streets).

Astute Observation by Erin
2007-08-23 08:04 AM

I live in a suburb of Raleigh. Gorgeous community. Yeah-it’s hot here and we are looking to move back to San Diego to be closer to family. BUT, we have some of the top schools in the nation, low crime, traffic is NOTHING like california, clean city, brand new large homes everywhere that you can buy without having to take out ARM loans, or older historic homes if that’s more your style etc… It’s a great place to raise a family if you can’t afford socal home prices.

Run down is not how I would describe my area at all. Lots of green grass, trees, new homes… There are still large, beautiful farms with cows out to pasture. Sure there are older places in the Raleigh area, just like there are old, run down places in So Cal.

My MIL lives in LA and it gets hotter there than it does here. The only difference is the humidity we have here in NC.

With that said we’ll be moving back soon and might actually be able to buy a home this time!

Astute Observation by awgee
2007-08-23 06:00 AM

Looks like a short to me.

Astute Observation by AudioPete
2007-08-22 11:10 PM

So anyone brave enough to buy some Countrywide stock?  IF CWide survives it might be a risk that pays off.  Since the announcement CWide stock jumped 20% in after-hours trading.

Astute Observation by Major Schadenfreude
2007-08-22 10:25 PM

Yeah, you might as well ask Homer Simpson to give up doughnuts and beer!

Astute Observation by rkp
2007-08-22 10:17 PM

welcome back smile

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-22 09:54 PM

Where’s Waldo?
Where’s W?

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+September+2007.htm

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-22 09:16 PM

Steps eyed to prevent foreclosure
Lenders says they’re trying to help shaky buyers, but activists want more action.

http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/337988.html

Often