Monthly Archives: August 2007

Skinner

If I leave here tomorrow

Would you still remember me?

For I must be traveling on, now,

‘Cause there’s too many places I’ve got to see.

FreebirdLynyrd Skynyrd

Link to Music Video

Did you know the bank Lynyrd Skynyrd got their name from their gym teacher Leonard Skinner? I have no idea where the Irvine Company came up with the street name Skinner. The Ranch neighborhood was done in the 70’s. Perhaps one of the early project managers was a fan…

5252 Skinner Front5252 Skinner Kitchen

IrvineRenterAsking Price: $725,000

Purchase Price: $825,000

Purchase Date: 6/14/2005

Address: 5252 Skinner ST, Irvine, CA 92604

1st Loan $650,000

2nd Mtg. $175,000

Downpayment $0

Beds: 4

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 2,326

$/Sq. Ft.: $312

Lot Size: 6,000 sq. ft.

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Other

Year Built: 1972

Stories: Two LevelsRollback

Area: El Camino Real

County: Orange

MLS#: P566766

Status: Active

On Redfin: 160 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “SUPER PLAN 102D! UPGRADED UPGRADED! GRANITE KIT COUNTERS, HUGE LOT WITH A BEAUTIFUL POOL AND SPA, COVERED PATIO WITH POOL TABLE, NO POPCORN CEILINGS, LAUNDRY IN GAR WITH A FULL ENTERTAINMENT CENTER IN GARAGE ALSO WITH BEAUTIFUL NEW FLOORING AND NEW CABINTES, HARDWOOD FLOORS, BONUS ROOM, WITH WET BAR, M U S T S E E !! NO DUES OR MELLO ROOS! Appraisal was done 8/15/2007 hurry!!”

When you read “SUPER PLAN 102D!” did your mind go to the same place mine did? That Lynyrd Skynyrd is the devil.

ALL CAPS and exclamation points — definitely written by a realtor.

Would you want a full entertainment center in your garage? I guess you don’t park there.

Notice the reason to “hurry” is because the appraisal is recent. What does that say to you?

Hurry and buy now because we can qualify you with a bloated appraisal and if you wait the values will drop to the point you can’t finance this property?

That is what it says to me. It doesn’t make me want to hurry…

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The bank is going to get crushed — again. Are we seeing a pattern here? Are you surprised about the credit crunch? Do you see why we are having one?

The seller has nothing to lose because they have nothing in to the transaction. The bank will probably not approve anything that imperils there first mortgage, so they have $175,000 to work with. If this sells for asking price, minus a 6% commission, the bank stands to lose $143,500. There is some negotiating room here. Of course, since this house will probably go for $475,000 at the bottom, there isn’t enough negotiating room to pique my interest.

Circle 7

So concludes another week’s exploration of “the seventh circle of real estate hell.” I hope you have enjoyed our posts this week. Come back again next week — it is only going to get worse.

Nutty

Tell me what’s wrong with society

When everywhere I look I see

Young girls dying to be on TV

They wont stop ’til they’ve reached their dreams

Diet pills, surgery

Photoshop pictures in magazines

Telling them how they should be

It doesn’t make sense to me

Is everybody going crazy?

Is anybody gonna save me?

Can anybody tell me what’s going on?

Tell me what’s going on

If you open your eyes

You’ll see that something is wrong

Crazy — Simple Plan

Link to Music Video

When we start to look at property pricing through the post-bubble-burst lens, you see just how crazy these prices are. This property is going to require an income of somewhere between $150,000 and $200,000. If you make that kind of money, is this the place you were envisioning as your dream home?

3 Acorn Front3 Acorn Kitchen

Asking Price: $600,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $650,000

Purchase Date: 2/5/2007

Address: 3 Acorn #85, Irvine, CA 92604

1st Loan $520,000

2nd Mtg. $125,000

Downpayment $5,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,448

$/Sq. Ft.: $414

Lot Size: 3,000 sq. ft.

Type: Condominium

Style: Contemporary/Modern

Year Built: 1979

Stories: Two Levels

Area: Woodbridge

County: Orange

MLS#: S497736

Status: Active

On Redfin: 37 days

From Redfin, “Great looking condo, new gas stove and microwave, new kitchen cabinets and new title. Very clean and ready to move in!”

Short but sweet.

Is that the front door, or is that an exterior broom closet?

The white tile kitchen is very stylish, or at least it was in 1985.

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This is going to be a short sale, and I wouldn’t be surprised to find the “owner,” and I use that term loosely, has not made many, if any, mortgage payments. If the place is empty now, how likely is it than anyone ever lived there? If there was no owner occupant and no tenant, and the owner has two loans for $645,000, that is a major negative cashflow. Do you think he reliably made all the payments? Do you think he feels any particular obligation to pay the bank for the short sale? I am not holding my breath…

If this seller gets his asking price, and if the bank approves the sale, the owner stands to lose his $5,000 downpayment — big deal. The bank stands to lose $81,000. It is any wonder we are experiencing a credit crunch?

Early Light

O say, can you see, by the dawn’s early light,

What so proudly we hailed at the twilight’s last gleaming,

Whose broad stripes and bright stars, through the perilous fight

O’er the ramparts we watched, were so gallantly streaming?

And the rockets’ red glare, the bombs bursting in air

Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there;

O say, does that star-spangled banner yet wave

O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave

Star-Spangled Banner — Francis Scott Key

Great Video (warning, you will cry)

Remember yesterday’s WTF homes where the owners paid about $1M but thought they were worth $2M? Well, today’s property is another Northwood beauty, but this seller actually wants to sell his house. After 125 days on the market, he is going to be a rollback.

31 Early Light Front 31 Early Light Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,350,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $1,381,500

Purchase Date: 12/29/2005

Address: 31 Early Light, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5

Baths: 4.5

Sq. Ft.: 3,640

$/Sq. Ft.: $371

Lot Size: 7,000 sq. ft.

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Mediterranean

Year Built: 2005

Stories: Two Levels

Area: NorthwoodRollback

County: Orange

MLS#: P574241

Status: Active

On Redfin: 125 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “Model perfect designer home that includes a Home Theatre plus a separate Casita with full bath! Highly upgraded with dark Mohagany wood floors, Extensive use of granite throughout, Top of the line stainless steel appliances, large great room off kitchen with built-ins, Expansive Master Suite with Jacuzzi and 2 Large walk-in closets. Professionallly landscaped including buit-in BBQ and fantastic Spa with waterfall!! Show & sell today!!”

This realtor is showing some restraint by only using two exclamation points. He still missed a few typos though…

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If today’s seller gets their asking price, they stand to lose $112,500 after a 6% commission.

I can’t help but be struck by the difference in pricing between someone who wants to sell their home and someone who doesn’t. If you look at the times and purchase prices of yesterday’s homes and today’s, you see the steady progression of prices typical of bubble appreciation. These are all comparables. Now you look at today’s home which isn’t selling as a rollback as compared to yesterday’s properties which were offered for sale at double the purchase price. The contrast is remarkable.

A New Dawn

Here comes the sun, here comes the sun,

and I say it’s all right

Little darling, it’s been a long cold lonely winter

Little darling, it feels like years since it’s been here

Here comes the sun, here comes the sun

and I say it’s all right

Here Comes the Sun — The Beatles

Link to Music Video

I love that song. When I hear it it brings me back to the feelings of peace and tranquility I would feel on a spring morning overlooking a Northwoods lake…

WAKE UP!

The bear market is over! Rapid house price appreciation has returned! The winter is over, a new day is dawning, and everything is all right.

NOT.

Kool Aid Man

Well, you would think all was well by the asking prices of today’s WTF trio. The mentality of the herd was evident during the house price rally. No price was too high because someone would always pay more. Making a million dollars on the sale of your home was not a dream, it was an entitlement.

The market is thinning the herd a bit, but there are still pockets of bullishness that display such a callous disregard for reality that one has to ask, “WTF?” Today’s grouping of three neighboring houses is one such display.

Rosegate Estates is a sub-neighborhood in Northwood Pointe which of course is a sub-neighborhood in the Village of Northwood. (When you are as elite as these people, you need to separate yourself from the riff-raff.) These homes are beautiful, and this neighborhood is very desirable. Is it $2,000,000 desirable? You decide…

1 New Dawn Front 1 New Dawn Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,999,800IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $1,075,000

Purchase Date: 4/25/2002

Address: 1 New Dawn, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5

Baths: 4.5

Sq. Ft.: 4,200

$/Sq. Ft.: $476

Lot Size: 9,500 sq. ft.

Year Built: 1998WTF

Stories: 2

Type: Single Family Residence

Neighborhood: Northwood

MLS#: S491641

Status: Active

On Redfin: 73 days

From Redfin, “Stunning Rosegate Estate featuring 5BD/4.5BA, 3-Car Garage, Home Offic e, Butler’s Pantry, Custom Library & Pebbletech Pool & Spa Plus Built-in BBQ! Beautifully appointed with Dramatic Cathedral Ceilings, Custom Tile Floors, Designer Carpet, Custom Blt-Ins, Integrated Speaker System & Home Security System! Gourmet Kitchen w/ Solid GRANITE COUNTERTOPS & Center Island * Blt-In Refrigerator * Viking 6 Burner Cooktop * Blt-In Desk & Walk-In Pantry!

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They knocked $200 off of $2,000,000. Quite a marketing expense. I suppose they could have asked $1,999,999.99.

So this property has doubled in value since early 2002? I guess all the rollbacks we have been seeing didn’t impact the high end, right?

23 New Dawn Front 23 New Dawn Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,999,900IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $642,000

Purchase Date: 1/13/1998

Address: 23 New Dawn, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5

Baths: 5.5

Sq. Ft.: 5,045

$/Sq. Ft.: $396

Lot Size: 8,000 sq. ft.

Year Built: 1998

Stories: 2WTF

Type: Single Family Residence

Neighborhood: Northwood

MLS#: S489401

Status: Active

On Redfin: 92 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “Rosegate in Prestigious Northwood Pointe. Desirable plan w/ dramatic curb appeal. Living room w/ vaulted ceilings, separate dining, one bedroom down + office. Gourmet kitchen open to family room. Master suite w/ retreat, master bath highly upgraded. Three secondary bedrooms upstairs + oversized bonus with bath perfect for private suite. Four car garages, tasteful upgrades, private yard and much more. Steps to schools, parks, pool, and minutes from shopping and freeways. Opportunity knocks!”

Opportunity knocks? For what, to be a greater fool or a bagholder? I will pass. Oh, wait, It has a gourmet kitchen. Where could I find another one of those in Irvine?

I wonder if the neighbor at 1 New Dawn used this property as a comparable for pricing. Notice the price is $100 lower? I guess neither one wants to give it away…

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This owner only wants to triple their money for 9 years of ownership. That makes sense. Houses should triple in value every nine years, after all wages did — oops, maybe not. Perhaps I will buy it and sell it for $6,000,000 in 2016. A $4,000,000 profit could fund my retirement.

As always, I have saved the best for last…

46 New Dawn Front 46 New Dawn Kitchen

Asking Price: $2,400,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $1,150,000

Purchase Date: 1/10/2003

Address: 46 New Dawn, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5

Baths: 4.5

Sq. Ft.: 4,600

$/Sq. Ft.: $522

Lot Size: 10,000 sq. ft.

Year Built: 1998

Stories: 2WTF

Type: Single Family Residence

View: Trees/Woods

Neighborhood: Northwood

MLS#: P587715

Status: Active

On Redfin: 47 days

From Redfin, “Magnificent home in elegant Rosegate Estate with beautiful architectur e featuring 5beds+home office & custom library, 4 car garage, and more! Soaring ceiling, wrought iron staircase, lime stone flooring & custom built-ins throughout the house give it a dramatic personality. gourmet kitchen with granite counter tops & center island over looks beautifully land scaped back & side court yard. Come and Show this stunning beauty of this home!”

Found another gourmet kitchen…

Do you think that justifies the $400,000 higher price?

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So this house has more than doubled in price since 2003?

So are these WTF prices? Can you create a reasonable set of circumstances which justifies these prices? I can’t. I am completely dumfounded. The only conclusion I can reach is that all of these owners are participating in a massive greed off:

How high can we set our prices without embarrassing ourselves? Wait, we have no shame, how high can we set these prices — period. Maybe if all three of us set our prices this high somehow it won’t be as ridiculous?

I am still wondering if 23 New Dawn is angry with 1 New Dawn for undercutting their asking price by $100? After all, this is a race to the top, not a race to the bottom…

Brio New World

Another home falls by the wayside

A few old cushions stuffed with pride

A hand is shaking from the rubble

This spirit is still alive

A servant bares his occupation

Breaks his back just growing old

Never mind his views were taken

Just saw by the rules of old

Less Cities More Moving People — The Fixx

Link to Music Video

Happiness and self-esteem are bi-products of self-discipline and the formation of character; character is forged from habits; habits develop through conscious repetition; conscious repetition only happens through self-discipline; self-discipline emanates from motivation and commitment; motivation and commitment comes from an understanding and appreciation of the benefits of character: happiness and self-esteem. The formula for happiness — life’s virtuous circle — is not difficult to understand, it is just difficult to implement.

Smiley FacePrevious generations had a formula for a “normal,” happy life. You used to save your money until you had a 20% downpayment, then you bought a house, and if you had increases in income, you could move up to a nicer place. Home ownership was a symbol of success. It proved you could save to reach a goal; it proved you were responsible; it made you happy. It was also a ticket to financial security as your home equity would become a savings account you could use to fund your retirement when you downsized to smaller accommodations. These were the rules of old.

The lending industry changed all of that. They eliminated all measures of responsibility including honesty with “liar loans,” integrity with low FICO scores, and accountability with 100% financing. When homes can be purchased by people who lie, cheat and steal, the prestige of home ownership is diminished — no make that eliminated. Home ownership no longer symbolizes sacrifice and success, instead it now is synonymous with greed and gambling in the commodities market. Welcome to our Brave New World.

Enough of my sermonizing…

Today’s properties are all from the Brio community in Westpark. The village of Westpark has held up better than some of the other neighborhoods in Irvine. We have not featured many distressed properties there; however, with the continued deterioration of the low end of the market, even Westpark is showing signs of distress.

2204 Ladrillo Aisle Front 2204 Ladrillo Aisle Kitchen

Asking Price: $469,900IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $473,500

Purchase Date: 2/22/2005

Address: 2204 Ladrillo Aisle #72, Irvine, CA 92606

1st Loan $378,640

2nd Mtg. $47,330

Downpayment $47,530

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,200

$/Sq. Ft.: $392

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 1994

Stories: 2

Type: CondominiumRollback

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

MLS#: S498744

Status: Active

On Redfin: 16 days

From Redfin, “Quiet & Private Corner Location. Centrally Located. Upstairs Unit. Gre at Room Open Floorplan. Highly Upgraded with Designer Wall-to Wall Carpet, Tile Kitchen Counters, White Cabinets & White Appliances, Microwave, Dishwasher & Oven Included, Wood Window Blinds, Mirrored Wardrobes, Ceiling Fans, Central Air Conditioning, Custom Interior Paint, Vaulted Ceilings, Recessed Lighting, Fireplace in the Living Room, Cozy Balcony, Rollup Garage Door and Central Fire Sprinklers.”

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This is the only seller with any skin in the game. If they get their asking price, they will lose $31,994 after a 6% commission. In all likelihood, they will lose their entire downpayment, and this might even become a short sale.

2301 Ladrillo Aisle #54

Asking Price: $386,900IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $319,850

Purchase Date: 7/13/2007

Address: 2301 Ladrillo Aisle #54, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 1

Baths: 1

Sq. Ft.: 784

$/Sq. Ft.: $493

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 1995

Stories: 1

Type: Condominium

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

MLS#: P589581

Status: Active

On Redfin: 33 days

Fixer-upper

From redfin, “HERE IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN IN WESTPARK, NEEDS SOME TLC BUT WORTH A LOOK, BRING INVESTORS OR FIRST TIME BUYERS, FIREPLACE, ATTACHED ONE CAR GARAGE, GOOD SIZE BEDROOM W/ WALK-IN CLOSET, DUAL SINKS.”

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This is an interesting property. The previous owner bought in 2001 for $207,500 and HELOCed himself into oblivion. On the way out the door, the previous owner trashed the place. Based on the $/SF, I would estimate Wells Fargo will be lucky to get their foreclosure price. We will see.

These next two properties were recently pulled from the market, but here is the old data…

2401 Landrillo Aisle Fron 2401 Landrillo Aisle Kitchen

Asking Price: $470,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $515,000

Purchase Date: 1/19/2006

Address: 2401 Ladrillo Aisle, Irvine, CA 92606

1st Loan $412,000

2nd Mtg. $103,000

Downpayment $0

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,186

$/Sq. Ft.: $396

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 1996

Stories: 1

Type: CondominiumRollback

View: Trees/Woods

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

MLS#: S483934

Status: Active

On Redfin: 115 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “Immaculate move in condition property located in the heart of Irvine. Spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. Granite kitchen counter with new stainless steel appliances. Private location with a two car direct access garage. Great association with pools, spa and tennis. Formal dining and living room with a cozy fireplace. Just a short walk to the Plaza vista elementary school and shopping and entertainment.”

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At over 100 days on the market, this property is clearly overpriced, but if this seller manages to get their asking price, minus a 6% commission, they (or the bank) stand to lose $73,200. In reality, they will lose closer to $100,000. Do you think they will just walk away? I do.

1504 Solvay Aisle Front1504 Solvay Aisle Kitchen

Asking Price: $399,999IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $390,000

Purchase Date: 7/30/2004

Address: 1504 Solvay Aisle, Irvine, CA 92606

1st Loan $400,000

Downpayment $-10,000

Beds: 1

Baths: 1

Sq. Ft.: 800

$/Sq. Ft.: $500

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 1995

Stories: 1

Type: CondominiumRollback

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

MLS#: S498790

Status: Active

On Redfin: 16 days

From Redfin, “Motivated Seller-Great location for UCI Student or Executive. Very cle an and ready for you to move in. Large Kitchen over looking the Dining and Living Rooms. Enjoy this great floor plan with it’s large Master Bedroom with a walkin closet and Private Bath. All on one level Plus Attached Garage Directly into your home.”

With the deterioration in the financing picture, I imagine this seller is even more motivated…

I have to laugh at these asking prices with $999. I guess the seller still wants to squeeze every last dollar out of this sale. Maybe we will have houses priced like gasoline soon with the 9/10 of a cent added on.

Not technically a rollback, but we are looking at a summer 2004 price, and after a 6% commission, this seller still stands to lose $14,000.94. The property records show a $400,000 first mortgage. I don’t know how this came to be as generally a 100% financing deal is an 80/20. Perhaps it reflects the outstanding value on their negative amortization loan, or perhaps they financed through a private party. If they actually got $10,000 back at closing, I don’t see them hanging on and weathering the storm. As Steve Miller would say, “Take the Money and Run.

The low end of the market is being decimated. Everywhere we look we see rollback after rollback. Some neighborhoods hold out longer than others, but all are showing signs of stress. With the further tightening of credit, look for this deterioration to continue, and most likely get much, much worse.